Who advances to the bigs in '09?

[Kc61]

First, there are the guys already getting a look-see. Dickerson has a good chance. Wilkin Castillo good chance as a 25th man type. Ramon Ramirez will likely compete for a long relief spot, maybe with Nick Massett. Hanigan should be with the Reds. Rosales (now back at AAA) would seem a possibility to ride the interstate between AAA and Cincy next year.

Next, the guys at AAA. Main area is bullpen. Herrera and Pelland from left side; Roenicke and Fisher from the right side. I doubt that most will be at Louisville next year. One or more may be traded. One or more may be Reds, or at least will get a real shot in the spring.

Homer or Maloney? I don't see either of them starting out with the Reds out of spring training next year. (Maybe Homer breaks through next year and comes up when a starter is injured or struggles.)

Micah Owings -- expect him to compete for a long relief or fifth starter spot with the Reds. Massett, Ramirez, Owings gives the Reds some new depth in that area.

AAA position players. IMO Janish will either be on the Reds' bench next year or gone. I've been a big supporter, I'd like to see him on the Reds' bench as a defensive utility guy.

Danny Richar? My guess is he gets a spring look-see and could hang on, but only with a great spring.

Stubbs? Probably starts at AAA next year. Cumberland? AAA to begin.

AA players? I don't think any have serious chances to make the Red since the team has aggressively moved them up to AAA if near ready. If Valaika or Turner move to AAA and do well, either could be an early call up.

[camisadelgolf]

I think you pretty much covered. Someone could always come along and shock some people, but that's the key word. I'd be shocked if, say, Ben Jukich, Sam LeCure, Shaun Cumberland, Craig Tatum, Robert Manuel, etc. forced his way onto the roster. Stranger things have happened, though.

[OnBaseMachine]

I look for both Josh Roenicke and Carlos Fisher to be apart of the Reds 25-man roster coming out of spring training.

[kpresidente]

Rosales is a possibility, especially if Freel is traded. I also like that you mention Richar. He's ML ready, so if he had a good spring he could make the club. It helps that he bats left-handed.

[mth123]

I think a lot depends on who the Reds acquire from outside. Assuming no acquisitions, the pitching staff would have some new faces:

Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, Owings, Masset, Fisher, Herrera, Roenicke, Bray, Burton and Cordero.

My hope is the Reds bring in one more mid-rotation starter and the quartet of Masset, Owings, Fisher and Roenicke probably are fighting for 3 spots with Ramirez also in the mix. Herrera probably makes it as the second lefty in the pen with Bray, with Pelland and maybe Viola eventually pushing for a spot. If they all have good springs, Bray shouldn't be a lock IMO but he will be I'd guess.

Of the position players, acquisitions and Alex Gonzalez health will impact who makes it. Assuming no acquistions and Gonzalez is healthy then

Hanigan, Castillo, Votto, Phillips, Gonzalez, Encarnacion, Keppinger, Bruce, Freel and Dickerson look like locks. Hopper is probably a lock as well, but I'd bet he could be sent down if the Reds acquire a RH bat for LF and Freel stays healthy. The last two spots probably go to Rosales and Richar.

Realistically, the Reds will probably acquire one corner bat, a SS and a C. That would probably push Rosales off the team. There will probably be some one on the DL saving two of Hopper, Castillo and Richar, I'd guess Hopper stays, Richar stays and Castillo goes down. If the team needs more LH hitting on the bench Hopper could go down and both Richar and Castillo could stay.

[SMcGavin]

From the relievers, I'd put Roenicke and Herrera in the bullpen to start the year. Carlos Fisher has a chance too but I like him a little less than those two. I think the Reds could build a good bullpen competely in-house without spending any FA dollars, which certainly is a nice change.

[mth123]

From the relievers, I'd put Roenicke and Herrera in the bullpen to start the year. Carlos Fisher has a chance too but I like him a little less than those two. I think the Reds could build a good bullpen competely in-house without spending any FA dollars, which certainly is a nice change.

Agree and Zack Stewart and even Mace Thurman could be in the picture by the end of 2009. Lots of starters who may fill pen roles as well (Bailey shouldn't be one of them IMO) Ramirez, Maloney and Lecure may all wind up as relief pitchers. Robert Manuel, Pedro Viola, Ty Pelland and Sean Watson are in the mix before the '09 season ends as well.

Affeldt, Weathers, Fogg, Lincoln, Majewski, Belisle and Coffey probably have no place. Add the savings from Kent Mercker's retirement and Mike Stanton's buy out that comes off the books and that is about $12 Million in payroll freed up for other uses.

[ChatterRed]

I'd like to see more of Ramirez this September to see if he's ready for the #5 starter slot.

[redhawk61]

I am going to say both Valaika and Ivan De Jesus get their shot late next year to be the middle IF of the future (http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/m...pbp&pid=474443, as some might know I am quite fond of him) De Jesus is blocked by Furcal(who I see back in LA) and Hu. Walt deals a quality piece or two who aren't vital to our success and recieve De Jesus. He and Valaika get to work with one another through most of next year at developling a dynamic middle infield duo to turn DP's like no other, then BP is dealt for a nice stable of prospects and the Ivan and Chris dream team beings.
Someone please tell me my dream has a chance

[Kc61]

I'd like to see more of Ramirez this September to see if he's ready for the #5 starter slot.

We really have to stop thinking in terms of number five starters. As Harang showed this year, anyone can wind up being a number five in a given year. You can't count on everyone having a good year.

Having a "planned number five" means that you are four deep in starting pitching. With injury, bad years, etc., not a great plan.

I want the Reds next year to have Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and another good starter. One of them will wind up being a number five either by injury, bad performance, bad luck, whatever.

Then a couple of guys like Ramirez, Massett, perhaps Owings, can be long-middle relievers who can start. One of them, perhaps, is at AAA with Bailey as further backups.

That's depth at starter which is what this team needs. No matter what other teams do, the Reds have a proven inability to get by on even four "good" starters.

[mth123]

We really have to stop thinking in terms of number five starters. As Harang showed this year, anyone can wind up being a number five in a given year. You can't count on everyone having a good year.

Having a "planned number five" means that you are four deep in starting pitching. With injury, bad years, etc., not a great plan.

I want the Reds next year to have Harang, Arroyo, Cueto, Volquez, and another good starter. One of them will wind up being a number five either by injury, bad performance, bad luck, whatever.

Then a couple of guys like Ramirez, Massett, perhaps Owings, can be long-middle relievers who can start. One of them, perhaps, is at AAA with Bailey as further backups.

That's depth at starter which is what this team needs. No matter what other teams do, the Reds have a proven inability to get by on even four "good" starters.

KC, were on the same page lately.

[Betterread]

We really have to stop thinking in terms of number five starters. As Harang showed this year, anyone can wind up being a number five in a given year. You can't count on everyone having a good year.

Having a "planned number five" means that you are four deep in starting pitching. With injury, bad years, etc., not a great plan.

I don't understand your point. If Harang is part of the four deep then he's not a #5. As you said, the Reds have four legitimate starters. That's a good situation. Unless you're saying that what you want is more than 4 legitimate starters. Everyone knows that 5 or 6 is greater than 4. However, many teams wish they were in that position of having 4 starters. The fact that the Reds did not win was not due to poor starting pitching.

[SMcGavin]

I don't understand your point. If Harang is part of the four deep then he's not a #5. As you said, the Reds have four legitimate starters. That's a good situation. Unless you're saying that what you want is more than 4 legitimate starters. Everyone knows that 5 or 6 is greater than 4. However, many teams wish they were in that position of having 4 starters. The fact that the Reds did not win was not due to poor starting pitching.

Actually, it was. The NL average for starting pitchers is 4.43 ERA, and the Reds have gotten a 5.07 ERA from their starters. I'm of the opinion a lot of that is due to bad luck and a rotating stable of ridiculously awful fifth starters, but a big (perhaps the biggest) reason the Reds are bad this season is that they've gotten poor results from the SPs.

[mth123]

Actually, it was. The NL average for starting pitchers is 4.43 ERA, and the Reds have gotten a 5.07 ERA from their starters. I'm of the opinion a lot of that is due to bad luck and a rotating stable of ridiculously awful fifth starters, but a big (perhaps the biggest) reason the Reds are bad this season is that they've gotten poor results from the SPs.

...Fueled largely by one of the worst defensive team performances in memory. Even the guys who are supposed to be the improvements (I'm talking about you Mr. Bruce) look pretty bad.

[Betterread]

Actually, it was. The NL average for starting pitchers is 4.43 ERA, and the Reds have gotten a 5.07 ERA from their starters. I'm of the opinion a lot of that is due to bad luck and a rotating stable of ridiculously awful fifth starters, but a big (perhaps the biggest) reason the Reds are bad this season is that they've gotten poor results from the SPs.

Thank you for supplying the numbers, which don't surprise me. I still think the starting pitching was OK this year (not above average, but an improvement over recent years) with 2 young arms revealing ML ability and health for 4 starters. Really, only Harang has had a disappointing campaign (I think this is about what you'll get from Arroyo - maybe slightly better numbers but he makes every start and can sometimes really impress). I definitely think the SP stats were damaged by the putrid #5 spot - I think the overall data on the starters is compromised by that spot.