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Thread: From TMQ

  1. #1
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    From TMQ

    I had a thought that may or may not transfer over from the column I was reading on Tuesday Morning Quarterback.

    Basically the point was that by replacing the cars with the lowest MPG with those just a little better, we would be saving the most gas as a nation.

    Can this transfer over to the Reds, if by replacing the absolute worst players from an OPS standpoint(Patterson, Bako, post injury Keppinger?) with those that are just adequate, (Dickerson, Hanigan, and fully healed Keppinger) would that be enough of an increase in runs to put the Reds back towards the top?

    How much of an increase do we get from taking bad to adequate versus good(EE, Phillips) to great(???)
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
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  3. #2
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    I'm sick of rooting for a franchise that seeks to do just enough.

    Just enough for what? I'm finding it almost impossible to care anymore.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

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    Re: From TMQ

    Fair point but I'm more curious about the most improvement the fastest.
    This oddly enough goes back to the argument against getting rid of Dunn, but that's another day.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

  5. #4
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    Well, Bako and Patterson have been good for 48 RC this year over their 594 at bats. If we got just a measly .320 OBP and a .400 SLG out of those 594 AB's, it would be worth ~76 RC, or about 3 more wins.

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    Re: From TMQ

    Similarly, if we replaced Fogg and the revolving gas cans at the back of the bullpen with average pitchers(probably those who have been at L'ville) would it be saving a similar number of runs?
    Get rid of the 5 worst players on the roster and replace them with adequate, what are you looking at 6,7 win improvement?
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Similarly, if we replaced Fogg and the revolving gas cans at the back of the bullpen with average pitchers(probably those who have been at L'ville) would it be saving a similar number of runs?
    The pitchers at Louisville likely aren't "average major league" pitchers.

    In 2008, the average major league pitcher has an ERA of 4.30.

    Therefore, Harang, Arroyo, Cueto all performed below average. But I expect they performed better than what you would exepct from Louisville pitchers.

  8. #7
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    The cheapest improvement is at the bottom of the roster. The Reds could add over 50 runs of differential merely by replacing their sub-replacement production with replacement level. Clearly we should aim higher, but the Cubs for example, have the #2 offense in baseball without a single .900+ OPS. Production wise, runs gained at the bottom count just as much as runs gained at the top.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    The pitchers at Louisville likely aren't "average major league" pitchers.

    In 2008, the average major league pitcher has an ERA of 4.30.

    Therefore, Harang, Arroyo, Cueto all performed below average. But I expect they performed better than what you would exepct from Louisville pitchers.
    I was thinking more along the lines of relievers with that.
    I do think Roenicke, Harerra, and Ramirez could adequately replace Majewski and Coffey.
    When people say that I donít know what Iím talking about when it comes to sports or writing, I think: Man, you should see me in the rest of my life.
    ---Joe Posnanski

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    Similarly, if we replaced Fogg and the revolving gas cans at the back of the bullpen with average pitchers(probably those who have been at L'ville) would it be saving a similar number of runs?
    Get rid of the 5 worst players on the roster and replace them with adequate, what are you looking at 6,7 win improvement?
    Haven't you noticed that the Reds try this every year? Of course, every team pretty much tries to replace its worst players, but there's a difference between getting the right players to do it and just chucking bodies at the problem.

    The Reds have done the latter for too long.

    Plus, does it help if you replace the Reds' worst pitcher, Homer Bailey, with that Homer Bailey kid from AAA?
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  11. #10
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'm sick of rooting for a franchise that seeks to do just enough.

    Just enough for what? I'm finding it almost impossible to care anymore.


    I have to say that I'm in the same place.

    I'm rapidly approaching mid 1980's indifference with this team. I watched a lot of good baseball in the 80's, hardly any of it involving the Reds.

    The rekindled flame of hope the '99 team provided has faded into a faint glow, hardly discernable.

    I try to stay hopeful when I see Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto, but this franchise has literally beaten the life out of me in the past 9 years.
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain

  12. #11
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by Hoosier Red View Post
    I had a thought that may or may not transfer over from the column I was reading on Tuesday Morning Quarterback.

    Basically the point was that by replacing the cars with the lowest MPG with those just a little better, we would be saving the most gas as a nation.

    Can this transfer over to the Reds, if by replacing the absolute worst players from an OPS standpoint(Patterson, Bako, post injury Keppinger?) with those that are just adequate, (Dickerson, Hanigan, and fully healed Keppinger) would that be enough of an increase in runs to put the Reds back towards the top?

    How much of an increase do we get from taking bad to adequate versus good(EE, Phillips) to great(???)
    The first thing Walt needs is a plan. Are we going to win in 2009 or is 2009 a rebuilding year with 2010 ( Stubbs, Valaika, Alonso, Frazier, etc arriving ) the year we start to win?

    No doubt dumping Bako, Javy, A. Phillips, Patterson, Fogg, Majik, etal and replacing them with pretty much anyone will help. Heck, a rebuilding Reds team could win 81 games next year just by dumping these guys.

    Whether the Reds go with the '2009 plan' or the '2010 plan' we will win more games in 2009 just due to getting rid of the complete junk as well as improvements in some of the younger players.
    .

  13. #12
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by RFS62 View Post
    I try to stay hopeful when I see Votto, Bruce, Volquez and Cueto, but this franchise has literally beaten the life out of me in the past 9 years.
    Some Red whomped on you with a baseball bat?

    Have faith.

    Lots of faith.

    From the day we arrive on the planet
    And, blinking, step into the sun
    There's more to see than can ever be seen
    More to do than can ever be done
    There's far too much to take in here
    More to find than can ever be found
    But the sun rolling high
    Through the sapphire sky
    Keeps great and small on the endless round
    It's the Circle of Life
    And it moves us all
    Through despair and hope
    Through faith and love
    Till we find our place
    On the path unwinding
    In the Circle
    The Circle of Life

    Pay attention to the open sky

  14. #13
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Have faith.

    Lots of faith.
    I'd rather have fun. It is a game after all.
    Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

    I'm witchcrafting everybody.

  15. #14
    Hey Cubs Fans RFS62's Avatar
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    Re: From TMQ

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    Some Red whomped on you with a baseball bat?


    If only it were that easy to recover from.

    :
    "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
    ~ Mark Twain


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