Bold prediction: Brandon Phillips has played his last game as a Red

[RedsManRick]

Next 2 years...very reasonable contract.
Following 2 years...unreasonable contract.

So what is one to do. I'd put his name out there this year, looking to be overwhelmed. If there are no takers, shop him hard next year after the season, allowing the buyer to get him for a cheap 2010, but making his 2011/12 years their problem contract-wise.

Backloaded contracts in MLB are rarely fun to watch play out.

This is the key for me. Too often, teams hold on to the guy while he's cheap and they try to sell off the overloaded back end, eventually getting pennies on the dollar -- or nothing.

When a team is in talent accumulation mode, as we should be, those cheap years represent trade value. You can't wait until after 2010 and then try and flip him because he's too expensive. And we're not going to be a WS contender in 2009. So rather than realize that value on the field in '09, we're best off realizing it by turning it in to an asset that will be useful for years to come.

[corkedbat]

Phillips has always been OBP challanged, but I think last year's 30-hr season really started him irreversably down the slippery Pokey slope. If they can get a rangy young SS, I'd be willing to deal him while someone might be willing to giveup something of real value for him and before he goese full-blown Reese.

I might even consider it if Gonzalez is the SS if they can get enough value for him. I'd let Keppinger, Richar and maybe even Hairston battle it out for the 2B job to start the season and hope that Valaika is my 2B by the all-star break. I know that some question Chris' range for SS whiile others think he's capable of sticking. I would think he would have decent range for a 2B.

It would all revolve around what I can get in return for BP though. It would need to be a deal that lands someone who wouold make a big difference in the club next year and for several to come. I recognize the value of Brandon's defense and don't want to see him go just to be rid of him for the sake of being rid of him or dumping salary. I would move him out of the three or four hole and down in the lineup to sixth and make it clear t him that the reason is OBP & pitch selection.

Wonder if the Beer Leaguers would take Cordero for Alcidies (Sp?) Escobar and maybe a prospect? I'd be willing to pay the difference between what they were offering Coco and what we ended up paying him. Don't think so? Me either.

[Red in Chicago]

This team plays awful defense. Phillips is one of the few guys who actually plays very good defense. He's not the guy to move right now (barring a whopping offer of course). As far as the other options, I've really grown weary of guys who "could" play at positions. There's a whole roster full of guys who "could" play 2B, or "could" play SS, or "could" play in the OF. The problem is they can't play them well. Just because someone can stand between second and third it doesn't make them a SS. I want players who can actually play the position, instead of settling for guys who "could", that's what's led to the awful defense they have now.

nicely stated

[jojo]

Why?

1. His numbers at a glance ( 21 homers & 23 SB ) look better than his true numbers ( OPS+ of 88, 105 & 93 the last 3 seasons and inability to hit RHP )

He is really a guy who should hit 6th or 7th and we have a lot of these guys already.

2. He could be attractive to teams. I could envision him being part of a Matt Holliday trade.

3. We have oodles of players whose best position is 2B - Kep, Richar, Valaika.
Rosales could play here. Heck we could even bring back Hairston.

4. He was not on Walt's untouchable list.

But a good deal of Phillips value is tied to his glove. The in house options to replace him really don't project to be any better offensively and their defense at second is questionable.

[Chip R]

Trading Phillips is the kind of move that would infuriate the average fan, but personally I'd be all for it if the return is right.

I think there would be some fallout with the players as well. Trade Phillips, and/or Bronson and/or Cordero after both have signed long term deals and pretty soon, guys like Bruce and/or Votto and/or Volquez and/or Cueto aren't going to sign here long term because they figure if those guys got traded, so could they. It's also going to look to players outside the organization who the Reds may be looking at that they will trade anyone who signs a long term deal. That's not to say the idea of trading these guys doesn't have merit but there is a human factor to consider and if you do wind up trading these guys, those actions could have consequences.

[Tony Cloninger]

I never understood why the trading of other players with long term contracts would preclude a player from signing one?

If someone wants to give me a long term contract.....I mean it's guaranteed money so why would i tun it down? At worst i get traded.....if you put down the teams you are willing to be traded to when you sign the contract then it would not be a big deal. I still get the money.

[dougdirt]

BP+ prospects for Matt Holiday? Sign me up.

[BRM]

BP+ prospects for Matt Holiday? Sign me up.

Would the Rockies be interested in that deal or are they hell-bent on getting pitching in return? I suppose the prospects could be pitchers though.

[Chip R]

I never understood why the trading of other players with long term contracts would preclude a player from signing one?

If someone wants to give me a long term contract.....I mean it's guaranteed money so why would i tun it down? At worst i get traded.....if you put down the teams you are willing to be traded to when you sign the contract then it would not be a big deal. I still get the money.

One of the reasons you sign a long-term deal is because there's something about the place you're playing that makes you want to stay there for 3-5 years. If Team A is offering a long term deal and it's an organization that usually doesn't trade those players; if Team B is offering the same deal but they tend to trade those guys, that player is going to probably sign with Team A unless Team B really overpays. Players don't usually like to get traded. It may also affect their performance on the field if they are hearing rumors about them being traded. The player is usually giving some money back if he's signing long term. Just think of what kind of a salary Pujols could command if he had gone year to year instead of signing long term.

I'm not saying you don't do it but that if you do, there may be repercussions.

[Heath]

BP+ prospects for Matt Holiday? Sign me up.

Only if there is a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract.

Other than that, one of the worst defensive teams in the league becomes the worst defensive team in the league.

[dougdirt]

Only if there is a 72 hour window to negotiate a contract.

Other than that, one of the worst defensive teams in the league becomes the worst defensive team in the league.

Doubtful. The Royals are beyond disgusting. We would field gold glovers at nearly every position over them. Still, we would have an 'iffy' defense losing Phillips, but losing Dunn and Griffey and replacing them with Holliday and Bruce for a full season makes a strong stride and Dickerson likely in CF helps out too. Then there is the assumption we would make no other moves, which we don't know about.

[Hoosier Red]

How important is defense at 2b? It seems as though it's the least important of the IF positions.
We all agree BPhill is one of the best defensive 2b in the league,(along with Hudson and Utley) but what's the difference in defense for the best 2b and an average one. How many runs does that save versus say the best SS and an average SS.

Just something to consider.

[dougdirt]

How important is defense at 2b? It seems as though it's the least important of the IF positions.
We all agree BPhill is one of the best defensive 2b in the league,(along with Hudson and Utley) but what's the difference in defense for the best 2b and an average one. How many runs does that save versus say the best SS and an average SS.

Just something to consider.

Brandon Phillips has saved the Reds about 9-10 runs versus the average 2B. So basically a win.

[jojo]

Brandon Phillips has saved the Reds about 9-10 runs versus the average 2B. So basically a win.

I think that's about where he'll shake out this year when a survey of the PBP-metrics is feasible this off season.

So Phillips' glove is worth about $4.5-5M to the Reds versus and average defender.

[Hoosier Red]

Brandon Phillips has saved the Reds about 9-10 runs versus the average 2B. So basically a win.

Well that's certainly not insignificant.
To further the idea, what would an average SS save the Reds over Keppinger/Hairston? What would a very good SS save the Reds over Kepp/Hairston?


This may tie back into my theory from yesterday with replacing the suck players with average players.