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Thread: Reds Third Base Prospects

  1. #1
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    Reds Third Base Prospects

    While the defensive positions of some remain unclear, this is a pretty interesting group. Alphabetically, Francisco, Frazier, Rosales, Soto, Waring.

    Interested in folks' views, as to offensive and defensive potential.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    While the defensive positions of some remain unclear, this is a pretty interesting group. Alphabetically, Francisco, Frazier, Rosales, Soto, Waring.

    Interested in folks' views, as to offensive and defensive potential.
    This is my gods honest opinion right at this juncture, it could change but I don't believe it will much if at all.

    Francisco - Has no MLB future unless his discipline improves a great deal.
    Waring - Has probably even less of a chance than Francisco IMO.
    Rosales - an average all around major league UT man

    Frazier - Good all around 3B or LF probably the latter due to a bit shaky glove. I'm thinking a Mike Cuddyer type in LF for a long time. He could be a bit better but I am going with my gut on this one, floor is Cuddyer, ceiling a bit better.

    Soto - The position almost has to be the reverse of Frazier so whoever goes to LF the other stays here, tough to say. Frazier has slightly better wheels based on what I have heard here so Soto stays at 3B and is a better than average to All-Star 3B. Think Edwin but with better offensive skills and hopefully not the defensive issues.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    I agree with all those and

    I'd personally love to see Fransico or Waring moved to catcher. I just hate to waste all that power. Sure, they are an end of the order hitter, but the power #s are legit for both these guys. However, they look to both be big strikeout/big power guys and as we've seen with Dunn and others, that's not how you win consistantly. If Merasco (sp?) does turn out to be the hitter people project him to be, it would be great to have one of these power guys as his backup and on the bench.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    [QUOTE=Mario-Rijo;1738901]

    Francisco - Has no MLB future unless his discipline improves a great deal.
    [QUOTE]

    You know all this talk about Francisco's low walk rate? It's true. But Neftali Soto's walk rate at Dayton was lower this year. Soto walked 7 times in 218 at bats. Even combined with Billings, his walk rate was about the same as Francisco's. All told, Soto walked 11 times in 285 at bats this year.

    They are both free swingers. Soto, however, had a BA about 50 points higher which positively impacted his OBP and OPS. He also strikes out less. Makes more contact.

    Francisco, on the other hand, even with a BA 50 points lower, had a SLG about the same as Soto's. This is because Francisco hit for more power. Francisco had 23 homers in 516 at bats. Soto had 11 homers in 285 at bats. They both had a lot of doubles.

    And, of course, Francisco was playing in the "bad for offense" FSL.
    And, of course, Francisco reputedly is an excellent defensive prospect with a cannon arm while Soto is reputedly not a special fielder with no clear position.

    Different kinds of hitters. Both free swingers. Soto potentially a better all around bat. Francisco potentially a better home run bat. Francisco potentially a better defender.

    If Francisco, Soto, and Frazier all were to make the Reds, the one playing third would likely be Francisco. The others would likely have other positions.

    IMO, while there are differences among them, Francisco, Soto and Frazier are fairly closely bunched as prospects, with different strengths and weakness, assuming you include defensive potential.

    I see Rosales as a utility guy who, over time, could earn a full position. Could be a successful overachiever.

    Think Waring is underrated as a prospect and can make it too. He had a good year and I understand he can field pretty well at third.

    Bottom line -- some won't end up at third, but these five provide a lot of depth in the system.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2008 at 12:25 PM.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    For me, Frazier and Soto rank well ahead of Francisco. Yeah Soto doesn't walk a lot but he also doesn't chase everything like Francisco. Then why doesn't he walk more? Because he often puts the ball in play. Francisco has exceptional power but he's got a lot of work to do if he wants to become a major league starter.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Generally agree with the assessments so far but I think we need to see what Francisco does next year. He could hit 30 plus home runs easily. It's hard to teach power; some of the other things can be taught. I think we'll know a lot more about him by this time next year, after he's been out of the FSL a year.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    For me, Frazier and Soto rank well ahead of Francisco. Yeah Soto doesn't walk a lot but he also doesn't chase everything like Francisco. Then why doesn't he walk more? Because he often puts the ball in play. Francisco has exceptional power but he's got a lot of work to do if he wants to become a major league starter.
    So does Soto. So does Frazier. For these two are guys -- and the Reds have plenty of them -- who have good offensive ability but are not exceptional defenders and currently have unsettled defensive positions.

    I've read the defensive write-up on Soto and he seems to be an average infielder with perhaps a strong enough arm to make it at third base. Francisco was named best defensive third baseman in the Florida State League in at least one publication I saw. He likely has the best throwing arm in the Reds organization for infielders and other strong defensive attributes.

    So you need to look at the whole package. Again, if there ever comes a time when Soto, Francisco, and Frazier are with the Reds, the guy playing third is likely to be Francisco.

    I'll try not to say this too often this winter because I'm sure it is getting boring, but Francisco is massively underrated around here because of OBP, which is one statistic, one barometer. I think he'll be a big time player. He needs two more years of seasoning.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2008 at 02:41 PM.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    I like Juan Francisco but unless he can improve upon that 19 BB/123 K ratio he'll never make it in the majors. The higher he moves up the more problems he'll have unless he can learn some plate discipline.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I like Juan Francisco but unless he can improve upon that 19 BB/123 K ratio he'll never make it in the majors. The higher he moves up the more problems he'll have unless he can learn some plate discipline.

    I could say the same thing for Soto using his K/AB numbers. As for strikeouts, Francisco improved dramatically this year over last. He strikes out more than Soto, but he's also much more of a power hitter at this stage. Those guys tend to strike out more.

    And Francisco consistently seems to hit for a decent batting average in the .270 range. So he makes decent contact for a slugger.

    I see Soto as a more consistent hitting prospect, good power, without a real position. Francisco is a lower BA guy, a true power guy, less consistent, better defense.

    Different, but the gap isn't as large as some would indicate. As for predictions about future development, whether Francisco will improve his plate discipline, I hope so but have no idea nor does anyone else, really.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-12-2008 at 02:54 PM.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    I have heard Francisco is a good defender at third. If he can sort out his discipline issue, he could be a good third baseman.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I could say the same thing for Soto using his K/AB numbers. As for strikeouts, Francisco improved dramatically this year over last. He strikes out more than Soto, but he's also much more of a power hitter at this stage. Those guys tend to strike out more.

    And Francisco consistently seems to hit for a decent batting average in the .270 range. So he makes decent contact for a slugger.

    I see Soto as a more consistent hitting prospect, good power, without a real position. Francisco is a lower BA guy, a true power guy, less consistent, better defense.

    Different, but the gap isn't as large as some would indicate. As for predictions about future development, whether Francisco will improve his plate discipline, I hope so but have no idea nor does anyone else, really.
    This difference with Soto and Francisco in the BB/K thing is Soto doesn't swing at everything, he just makes contact with a lot in the zone. Francisco swings at everything. That makes a big difference when going forward.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    This difference with Soto and Francisco in the BB/K thing is Soto doesn't swing at everything, he just makes contact with a lot in the zone. Francisco swings at everything. That makes a big difference when going forward.
    Exactly.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Francisco has a cannon for an arm. He has more power than any other prospect
    in the organization. He could the next Ryan Howard from the Phillies who has hit
    43 bombs already this year. He is still young. I've seen him hit some balls in Dayton
    off the buildings in right and right center that just blew me away.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Redman15 View Post
    Francisco has a cannon for an arm. He has more power than any other prospect
    in the organization. He could the next Ryan Howard from the Phillies who has hit
    43 bombs already this year. He is still young. I've seen him hit some balls in Dayton
    off the buildings in right and right center that just blew me away.
    Francisco has a cannon for an arm, but isn't very good at the corner. His weight is becoming an issue and its causing range problems as well. He does have more power than anyone in the system, which is always a plus. However for him to become anything like Ryan Howard he is going to need to walk a whole lot more.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Francisco's a lot like Phillips in that he's gotta do all the work and mash if he wants to be productive. Can he hold onto his power and keep his K rates down as he moves up to levels where pitchers can throw a slider around his ankles over and over? Next year should tell us a lot.


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