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Thread: Reds Third Base Prospects

  1. #31
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    I'm not really in favor of a move of EdE to LF or 1B. Right now he's cheap and his bat is a real plus at 3B. A move to LF makes his bat kind of Ho Hum. Even if his bat does improve, his salary will be going up as well, making the improvement a value neutral proposition. This off-season, 3B will be an in demand position and the combination of EdE's bat, his salary and the perception that he may be able to play 3B someday, probably makes his trade value as high as it will get. If the Reds think he'll always be this bad at 3B (as I am starting to believe), then I think a trade should be option number 1 with EdE. If the Reds can't acquire a stopgap along the lines of Melvin Mora, then a committee of Keppinger, Rosales and whoever (maybe a cheap pick-up on a minor league deal) can do until Frazier or some one is ready. Of course if the return is crummy, then keep him.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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  3. #32
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I did "glance" at the numbers.

    Right now, there are eight third basemen in the major leagues with 15 errors or more. That's eight among all third basemen on all 30 teams.

    Right now, there are three third basemen in major league baseball with 20 errors or more. Crede with 20, EE with 23, Reynolds with 29. So EE has the second most errors of any third sacker in major league baseball.

    Now, you may say that other third basemen (those with 13 errors or 14 errors) may make additional errors in the next two weeks, so some others might get to 15. True.

    But EE, currently with 23, also may make additional errors. Equally true.

    As for the "range factor" mentioned in your post, Melvin Mora leads third basemen with 2.90. EE is way down the list at 2.22, according to ESPN.

    As for EE's youth, he has now played 463 major league games. His fielding percentage this year, his most experienced year, is .926.

    You say that EE has a "very good glove" down at third base. Please provide the statistics that reflect this.
    1st I must apologize the post you responded to was mine, I was at my sister and bro-in-laws house and forgot to sign him out (Lockdwn11) before I responded.

    That said it's common knowledge that the majority of EE's issues are of the throwing variety. That in itself makes his glove good enough, to what degree though is the point. Let's take a look and see if we can determine it.

    Throwing: 15

    Fielding: 8

    March - 1 (in 1 game played)
    April - 7 (5 Throwing)
    May - 1
    June - 2
    July - 7 (5 Throwing)
    Aug - 3
    Sept - 2

    Look take away those 10 throwing errors I have in parentheses just for a moment. That's 13 errors total, 5 throwing, 8 fielding a pretty good defensive 3rd baseman who has his share of random mistakes. Now when he is at his worst from time to time he will get erratic with his throws, why? An interesting thing stood out to me while perusing the errors. Edwin hit pretty well (the month) when he wasn't fielding well and vice versa. Perhaps when he intently focuses on 1 part of his game the other part slips.

    Other defensive info of note:

    Bruce: 1st error on June 11 - 3rd July 28th - (FT Starter Aug 1st) - 8th, 9th errors on Sept 5th. 5 ttl errors in August.

    Votto 9th error July 6, only 2 since.

    BP - 5 of his 7 errors after the AS break and had a 70+ games streak of errorless games during the season.

    Since Jr and Dunn have gone only Bruce has been below average in committing errors, again since his playing time increased.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  4. #33
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I did "glance" at the numbers.

    Right now, there are eight third basemen in the major leagues with 15 errors or more. That's eight among all third basemen on all 30 teams.

    Right now, there are three third basemen in major league baseball with 20 errors or more. Crede with 20, EE with 23, Reynolds with 29. So EE has the second most errors of any third sacker in major league baseball.

    Now, you may say that other third basemen (those with 13 errors or 14 errors) may make additional errors in the next two weeks, so some others might get to 15. True.

    But EE, currently with 23, also may make additional errors. Equally true.

    As for the "range factor" mentioned in your post, Melvin Mora leads third basemen with 2.90. EE is way down the list at 2.22, according to ESPN.

    As for EE's youth, he has now played 463 major league games. His fielding percentage this year, his most experienced year, is .926.

    You say that EE has a "very good glove" down at third base. Please provide the statistics that reflect this.
    I guess I only scratched the surface of this post with my last one. I'll answer one at a time.

    Only 8? That's over a 4th of the league bordering on a 1/3 of the league if you take into consideration players missing time with injuries and the like who have not played enough games, innings. However let's just split the difference between that and players who will eventually end up with 15 or more. EE is 9th in MLB in total chances with 311 opportunities, 6th in games played and innings. So in essence you should expect more errors with more opportunities. BTW Reynolds is just ahead of EE in these categories and now has 30 errors, just a side note.

    Range Factor aside for a second, answer this honestly. Have you ever said to yourself while watching him play, "EE just doesn't have enough range down there". I don't really see a big issue with his range even though the numbers say I should. Perhaps it's a result of him not having a SS with a lick of range playing next to him. It's just a thought but he cannot cover the whole left side of the IF, maybe that has hurt him some IDK.

    Bottom line is we all know he's no great shakes down there and I imagine people are getting weary of seeing the issues but with an .800+ ops from the right side in this offense at his age and cost I see no reason to be hasty unless we automatically somehow become contenders in the offseason. I don't have an issue with trading him but realize that you are dealing away a good value with some upside still and you are likely going to pay thru the nose to upgrade at that position in dollars and possibly even talent as well. Money and talent that could go to more immediate and/or serious issues.

    BTW Crede, a guy with a good defensive reputation is pretty foul this season and worse than EE with those 20 errors in far less chances/games/innings.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  5. #34
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I guess I only scratched the surface of this post with my last one. I'll answer one at a time.

    EE is 9th in MLB in total chances with 311 opportunities, 6th in games played and innings. So in essence you should expect more errors with more opportunities. BTW Reynolds is just ahead of EE in these categories and now has 30 errors, just a side note.

    Range Factor aside for a second, answer this honestly. Have you ever said to yourself while watching him play, "EE just doesn't have enough range down there". I don't really see a big issue with his range even though the numbers say I should. Perhaps it's a result of him not having a SS with a lick of range playing next to him. It's just a thought but he cannot cover the whole left side of the IF, maybe that has hurt him some IDK.

    Bottom line is we all know he's no great shakes down there and I imagine people are getting weary of seeing the issues but with an .800+ ops from the right side in this offense at his age and cost I see no reason to be hasty unless we automatically somehow become contenders in the offseason. I don't have an issue with trading him but realize that you are dealing away a good value with some upside still and you are likely going to pay thru the nose to upgrade at that position in dollars and possibly even talent as well. Money and talent that could go to more immediate and/or serious issues.

    BTW Crede, a guy with a good defensive reputation is pretty foul this season and worse than EE with those 20 errors in far less chances/games/innings.
    Your total chances point doesn't help EE. He is near the bottom in fielding percentage with .926. This statistic factors in the number of chances and looks at errors as a percentage. EE is near the bottom.

    And if you look at the actual numbers, Crede has a higher fielding percentage than EE this year. Crede does have fewer innings and 27 fewer chances. But he actually has more assists than EE and three fewer errors.

    As for EE's range, I suggest that watching him and "not having an issue" is no substitute for a more refined analysis. And the statistics I've seen are not favorable to EE.

    As for his bat, as many others have said, if EE can't play third defensively and has to move to left field or first base, he's not as compelling an offensive threat. He may be above average offensively as a third baseman, but it's a different story comparing him to good hitting first basemen or left fielders.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-16-2008 at 09:10 AM.

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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by TC81190 View Post
    The defense. Sure, offensively, he's the best right handed hitter on the team. But on the field, he's still having problems with errors.

    He played half a season in 2005. His first full season in 2006 he had 25 errors. He cut those down to 16 the next season, last year in 2007. He's back to the mid-20's in errors, so he's had one year of regression which had followed one year of improvement.

    Wade Boggs was a crappy 3rd Baseman defensively until he was in his 30's. Then he won 2 Gold Gloves.

    REDS' fans need more patience with EE. Let's see what happens next year defensively.

    Again, we are winning right now, and EE is a big reason for that. Nice 3-run Double tonight.

  7. #36
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    We also haven't had any Gold Glove 1st Baseman since Edwin was here. Votto's not exactly helping EE as much as someone else might. A lot of a 3rd Baseman's throwing errors are reduced by the quality of the 1st Baseman.

    That will be better next season, also as Votto improves. EE did have only 16 errors last season with Veterans at 1st Base.

  8. #37
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    There's no more need to discuss who the REDS 3rd Baseman should be in 2009 and 2010.

    This statistic alone ends the discussion...

    There are 16 Teams in the National League. How many Right-Handers do you think are starters? Probably 3 per team?

    Of all the Right-Handers that have enough at-bats to qualify for a batting championship (3.1 AB's per game player's team has played), EE ranks 17th in the NL among Right-Handers in OPS.

    If every team had 1 Right-hander that was better, then he would be the 1st among the 16 #2's, and better than everyone's #3's and #4's, etc. But, since some teams, like the Cubs who have 4 of the Top 15 and the Cards who have 2 of the Top 13 and the Marlins who have 2 of the Top 9, EE's a better Right-handed bat than 1/3 of the Teams in the National League.

    Here are the NL teams that do not have anyone on it (who qualifies as a starter with 3.1 PA's per game player's team has played) that is a better Right-handed bat than EE. And you want to replace this guy? End that discussion now. Here are the teams that do not have a Right-handed bat this good:

    BTW, EE's OPS is .820 (and a career .809).

    Cincinnati...have to include them because after EE, the best Right-handed bat is #28 Brandon Phillips and after that there isn't anybody who has enough at-bats to qualify (because they're not good enough to get enough at-bats).

    San Diego...their best is #34 Kevin Kouzmanoff at a horrific .738.

    San Francisco...their best is #27 Aaron Rowand at a dismal .762. Rowand is 31 years old.

    Los Angeles...their best is #22 Matt Kemp at .784. At 24 years of age, that's a worse number than any of EE's last 3 years and Edwin is only 20 months older than Kemp.

    Pittsburgh...their best is #38 Freddy Sanchez at a paltry .622....200 points less than EE's.

    Atlanta...their best is #25 Yunel Escobar at .767 and he's 10 months older than EE, and that's if you believe Cuban birth records.

    EE's only going to be better at OPS each of the next 2 seasons propelling him into the Top-12 each year...and he's cheap.

    And of Right-Handed National League 3rd Basemen who qualify as starters? Only David Wright, Aramis Ramirez and Troy Glaus have higher OPS'. He's got a great chance to catch Glaus next year have the 3rd best OPS among Right-handed 3rd Basemen next season.

    Please stop the discussion about replacing EE and embrace him.

  9. #38
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Reds Third Base Prospects

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Your total chances point doesn't help EE. He is near the bottom in fielding percentage with .926. This statistic factors in the number of chances and looks at errors as a percentage. EE is near the bottom.

    And if you look at the actual numbers, Crede has a higher fielding percentage than EE this year. Crede does have fewer innings and 27 fewer chances. But he actually has more assists than EE and three fewer errors.

    As for EE's range, I suggest that watching him and "not having an issue" is no substitute for a more refined analysis. And the statistics I've seen are not favorable to EE.

    As for his bat, as many others have said, if EE can't play third defensively and has to move to left field or first base, he's not as compelling an offensive threat. He may be above average offensively as a third baseman, but it's a different story comparing him to good hitting first basemen or left fielders.
    I disagree with more chances comes more chances for error, so he is bound to have more than the average. Crede has ONLY 3 fewer errors in far less chances, but that's really here nor there.

    My whole point to the matter is there is 2 sides to every coin and we here on RZ have a tendency to dwell on one side or the other but not both. In this post you are continuing the trend of dwelling on the bad with EE and that's ok, but I am just trying to point out the other side of it to make the picture whole. EE could go either way in his development even at this point, most guys get better with experience or they don't improve at all. He may not improve, but considering his whole package it's not a bad gamble even at this juncture to wait at least 1 more year. He still has what nearly 3 years before arb. (He had 2.085 service time coming into this season), what's the rush?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes


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