1. ## Expected Win-Loss Records

I was looking at the current standings, wildcards, etc. and stumbled across this stat: X W-L (Expected Win-Loss Records). The formula is this:

XW-L - Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))

It looks like this method predicts at least one (middle of the pack) team with their exact Win-Loss record. Most other teams are pretty close to their X W-L (of course, the Reds are playing ABOVE their X W-L, as is the case in most categories).

Therefore, if the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed can be predicted, this formula could be used to predict the Win-Loss records for an upcoming year.

Does anyone see any validity in this formula? Does anyone use this formula to predict the Reds Win-Loss record during the beginning year prediction thread?

Just wondering...

3. ## Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...?

It's a tool to guesstimate, but I don't know how accurate...

4. ## Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

[QUOTE=freestyle55;1740945]Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE]

You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72

5. ## Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

It's a valuable tool for predictive purposes. Sure it's off on occaision, but when it's off it helps to tell you who's been lucky, who hasn't been lucky, and when luck hasn't played much of a factor.

6. ## Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

[quote=shredda2000;1740954]
Originally Posted by freestyle55
Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE]

You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72
I think you mean 79-83...

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