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Thread: Expected Win-Loss Records

  1. #1
    A Lost Ball In High Weeds shredda2000's Avatar
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    Expected Win-Loss Records

    I was looking at the current standings, wildcards, etc. and stumbled across this stat: X W-L (Expected Win-Loss Records). The formula is this:

    XW-L - Expected won-loss record based on runs scored and runs allowed, using this formula: RS^1.82/((RS^1.82)+(RA^1.82))

    It looks like this method predicts at least one (middle of the pack) team with their exact Win-Loss record. Most other teams are pretty close to their X W-L (of course, the Reds are playing ABOVE their X W-L, as is the case in most categories).

    Therefore, if the Runs Scored and Runs Allowed can be predicted, this formula could be used to predict the Win-Loss records for an upcoming year.

    Does anyone see any validity in this formula? Does anyone use this formula to predict the Reds Win-Loss record during the beginning year prediction thread?

    Just wondering...
    "I don't want to embarrass any other catcher by comparing him to Johnny Bench."
    Sparky Anderson

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  3. #2
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    Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

    Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...?

    It's a tool to guesstimate, but I don't know how accurate...

  4. #3
    A Lost Ball In High Weeds shredda2000's Avatar
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    Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

    [QUOTE=freestyle55;1740945]Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE]

    You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72
    "I don't want to embarrass any other catcher by comparing him to Johnny Bench."
    Sparky Anderson

  5. #4
    Next Year redsbuckeye's Avatar
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    Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

    It's a valuable tool for predictive purposes. Sure it's off on occaision, but when it's off it helps to tell you who's been lucky, who hasn't been lucky, and when luck hasn't played much of a factor.

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    Re: Expected Win-Loss Records

    [quote=shredda2000;1740954]
    Quote Originally Posted by freestyle55 View Post
    Didn't the Diamondbacks have a fluke year last year where they were waaaaayyy over what the expected record should have been based on RA/RS...? /QUOTE]

    You are correct...the D-Backs were expected to go 89-73 and instead they went 90-72
    I think you mean 79-83...


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