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Thread: Reds so far in September

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    Reds so far in September

    Harang pitches a beautiful game against the Cards. 9 innings, 6 hits, 0 runs, 4 K's, 111 pitches. Gives me hope for next season. He and Arroyo have turned things around.

    Reds are 9-5 in September against nearly all .500+ teams (Cubs, Brewers, D-Backs, Cards), except the Pirates. Funny thing is, they went 1-2 against the Pirates and have taken all the other series.

    In 8 of those 14 games, the pitching has given up 3 or less runs.

    In analyzing all 14 games, the starting pitching has been very good.

    Sept 2: Reds lose 3-2 to the Pirates. Harang goes 6 innings, gives up 3 runs. Reds offense can't muster enough to win. Bullpen holds them.

    Sept 3: Reds lose 6-5 to the Pirates. Volquez goes 7 innings, gives up 4 runs while striking out 13. Affeldt gives up 2 more runs. Lincoln and Cordero hold them.

    Sept 4: Reds win 8-6 over the Pirates. Josh Fogg gives up 5 runs in 3 innings. Masset gives up a HR, but the bullpen pitches 6 solid innings in relief. Bruce and Votto both homer.

    Sept 5: Reds win 10-2 over the Cubs. Arroyo pitches 6.1 innings, gives up 1 run, 4 hits, 6 K's. Bullpen finishes games allowing 1 unearned run. Votto and Bruce both homer and double knocking in 7 between them. Keppinger and Hanigan go 2 for 5.

    Sept 6: Reds lose 14-9 to the Cubs. Cueto gives up 8 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings. Burton, Majewski, and Lincoln get shelled for 9 earned runs in relief. Reds offense comes alive in the 8th, scoring 8 runs combined in the 8th and 9th innings, showing they aren't going down without a fight, but they still lose.

    Sept 7: Reds win 4-3 over the Cubs, coming from behind in the 9th, scoring 3 runs to win it! Harang pitches 7 innings, gives up 6 hits, 3 runs in a solid effort. Weathers and Cordero shut them down for the win.

    Sept 8: Reds win 5-4 over the Brewers. Again, Reds score 3 runs in the top of the 9th, 2 runs on a Keppinger double. Volquez goes 5.2 innings, gives up 5 hits, 4 runs, and strikes out 10. Votto hits his 19th Home run. Lincoln, Masset, Burton, Cordero combine to shut down in relief.

    Sept 9: Reds win 5-4 over Brewers again. Triple A's Ramon Ramirez goes 6 innings, giving up only 1 run on 1 hit. Burton blows it, giving up 3 runs and losing the win for Ramirez. Bray, Weathers, Lincoln, Affeldt, Adkins, Cordero combine to shut them down the rest of the way. Brandon Phillips breaks his hand, and is out for the remainder of the season, but still manages to hit a game winning rbi single in the top of the 11th inning. EE and Bruce both homer.

    Sept 10: Reds lose 4-3 to Brewers. Weathers blows lead in 8th inning giving up 2 runs. Arroyo goes 7 innings, giving up 2 runs - both unearned on 5 hits (deserved the win).

    Sept 12: Reds lose 3-2 at Arizona. Harang pitches 7 innings, no earned runs (1 run on an error). Burton once again coughs up the game allowing 2 earned runs in less than an inning. Bray and Lincoln combine to shut them down. Brandon Webb wins his 20th game of the season, pitching 8 innings of shutout ball. Reds muster 2 runs in the 9th, but it's not enough. Dunn goes 0-3 with a walk and an rbi for the D-Backs.

    Sept 13: Reds win 3-2 at Arizona. Volquez pitches 6 innings, giving up 2 runs, while striking out 8. Affeldt, Roenicke, Herrera, Weathers, and Cordero combine to shut them down in relief. New acquisition and starting pitcher, but good hitter, Micah Owings comes off the bench to pinch hit in the 9th, and knocks in Dickerson with a game winning double. Cordero shuts them down in the 9th for the win. Dunn goes 1-3 with a walk, rbi and strikeout for the D-Backs.

    Sept 14: Reds win 2-1 at Arizona. Cueto pitches 5 innings, giving up 1 run. Pettyjohn, Lincoln, Burton, Bray, Weathers and Cordero shut them down the rest of the way. Corey Patterson homers in the top of the 10th for the win. Dunn goes 0-3 with 2 walks, 1 K, and 5 men left on base.

    Sept 16: Reds win 7-2 over Cards. Arroyo pitches 7 innings, 5 hits, and 2 earned runs both on homers. Weathers and Cordero shut them down in relief. EE knocks in 3 runs with a double and Patterson goes 2-4 knocking in 2 runs.

    Sept 17: Reds win 3-0 over Cards. Harang pitches a complete game shutout, allowing 6 hits on 111 pitches. 3 solo home runs by Andy Phillips, Jay Bruce and Paul Janish make up the scoring for the Reds.

    Harang has given up only 6 earned runs while pitching 29 innings for a 1.86 e.r.a. in September against good competition. Harang came off the DL on August 10th and gave up 8 runs in each of his first 2 starts. In his next 6 starts, he allowed 3 runs in each of 3 games, and zero runs in the other 3 games, pitching 42 innings for an e.r.a. of 1.92 in that 6 game stretch. Even more interesting is that in that 6 game stretch, he only got 2 wins, and suffered 3 losses and 1 no decision. Very well could have won all 6 decisions and changed his record from 5-16 to 8-13, which looks much better. Wins and losses can be overrated sometimes and don't always paint a true picture.

    Volquez allows 4 runs in each of 2 games, and only 2 runs in his other start, while striking out 31 in 18.2 innings.

    Arroyo allows 3 earned runs while pitching 20.1 innings for a September e.r.a. of 1.34. In fact, Arroyo has allowed 2 or less runs in 8 of his last 10 outings, lowering his e.r.a. from 5.55 to 4.57 in that run. He has gotten 6 winning decisions, 3 losses and one no-decision in those 10 outings. He pitched well enough, giving up 2 earned runs in one game and zero earned runs in another, that he easily could have won 2 more.

    Cueto has suffered either from a lack of run support during his innings pitched or blown leads by the bullpen. He has given up 3 or less runs in 20 of his starts. In those 20 quality starts, he has gotten 8 wins, 5 losses, and 7 no-decisions. He has given up 4 to 6 runs in 9 other starts. Having said that, in August and September, Johnny Cueto has an e.r.a. of 3.49 in 36.1 innings pitched, with 6 quality starts (3 or less runs allowed) in 7 actual starts.

    Reds team e.r.a. in September is 3.74 overall. Nice. By comparison, their August team e.r.a. was 5.03.

    The oft maligned, and rightfully so, Corey Patterson is hitting .289 in September in 38 at-bats. Coming around? LOL. Still hitting .208 overall with an overall OBP of .240, which is pathetic.

    In 8 September outings, Cordero has pitched 8 innings, giving up 0 runs, 4 hits, 5 walks, and 10 K's. In fact, in the months of August and September, in 19 outings, Cordero has only been scored upon in 2 games, for an e.r.a. of 2.84, with 10 saves, 1 win and 1 loss.

    By comparison, in August and September, in 20 outings, David Weathers has been scored upon in 5 of those outings, going 21 innings, giving up 7 earned runs, 23 hits, walking 9, striking out 13 for an e.r.a. in those 2 months of exactly 3.00. Still pretty good. Shouldn't we keep this guy?

    All that rookie Ramon Ramirez has done is pitched 17 innings, given up 16 hits, 4 earned runs, struck out 12, with an e.r.a of 2.25 and a WHIP of 0.75. Opponents are batting .113 against him. I know it's early and opponents haven't scouted him enough, but compare what he did to what Bailey or Daryl Thompson did.

    Coming over in the Griffey trade, Masset has put up an e.r.a. of 2.08, with a WHIP of 1.21 and opponents are batting .254 against him.

    Wilkin Castillo, A CATCHER, who came over in the Adam Dunn trade, has started 3 games in LF and 1 at 2B. Go figure. Funny stuff. Micah Owings soon to be seen playing CF? LOL.

    Looking for power for next season? In 106 at-bats since traded to the ChiSox, Griffey has hit only 1 HR, for a season total of 16. In fact, he has hit exactly .245 for them which is his same average he had here this season. His slugging and OPS are at career lows overall this season. On the flip-side, EE has hit 25 HR's, Bruce has 19 HR's in 99 games, Votto has 19 HR's in 138 games, and Phillips hit 21 in 141 games. All 4 of those guys have 20-30 HR type power as they mature and continue to gain experience. Dickerson has 20+ HR power too.

    In 35 games and 227 innings, Chris Dickerson has yet to commit an error.

    Hopefully the end of the season success carries over to next season. Right now, if Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, and Cueto could continue to pitch like they have in September, and for some of them, even August............the starting staff would be one of the better ones in baseball. The bullpen is pitching well and looks like one of the better ones too.
    Last edited by ChatterRed; 09-18-2008 at 12:07 AM.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    As noted in an overlapping thread, this sudden improvement in pitching has paralleled an upgrade in outfield defense. For that reason, it's even more encouraging in that it seems reasonably sustainable.

    It also makes you wonder how critical it is for Jocketty to sign another starter for 09. Ramirez has looked, preliminarily, like a very nice candidate, and if he's not up to it, there's Owings, Bailey, Thompson, Masset, etc. Given that potential, is it more advisable to sign a free-agent pitcher (say, Derek Lowe) at $10-15 million or go with one of the guys in-house and use that money on a shortstop or left fielder? (I'd add catcher, but I'm a Ryan Hanigan fan.)

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    I'd love to see them make a run at signing Derek Lowe. On the flipside, the free agent pitching market isn't very good and nearly every team will be after Lowe, and it will be hard for the small market Reds to compete for him. They would probably have to overpay to get him (like Cordero).

    Bailey has not proven to be the answer. If Bailey shows any improvement at all next season in triple A, it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the Reds bullpen rather than their starting rotation.

    I don't see any other minor league pitchers ready to make the jump to the major league rotation at this point. Thompson has been injury-prone most of his career and I hold out no hope of it going away. Micah Owings is possibly the best 5th starter candidate along with Ramirez.

    Owings and Ramirez will battle it out for 5th starter, unless the Reds sign Derek Lowe. That is my opinion. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure it out, though.

    Many expect the Reds to either sign Burrell, or make a stab at Vlad Guerrero, or possibly make a trade for Matt Holliday. I think all 3 are difficult financial options because of either free agency (Burrell/Guerrero) and age (same two) or the fact that Holliday is expected to break the bank in free agency.

    Some think Holliday's numbers are inflated playing in Coors Field. Why not trade for him, see how he does in GABP, and possibly sign him during the season if he shows he's the real deal? I'm sure they could find out in advance what kind of money he is looking for.

    If those 3 options fail, I wouldn't mind trading for an Ichiro type player - who shows consistency, until another minor leaguer is ready to move up. I just think it is going to be hard to trade for a power hitter, that is worth it.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Dusty's done a great job winning those close games.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    Dusty's done a great job winning those close games.
    Amen, 28-16 in 1 run games, thats the sign of a great manager!

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Is Vlad a free agent next year because if he is, he is worth breaking the bank. He's the type of player that could play until he is in his forties. He is a dynamic hitter and has the best arm in baseball.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Here is a great article about how a scout who writes for ESPN looks at Chris Dickerson and likes what he sees. Also in the article is info about Aarong Harang. Here is the link: http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/b...lipboard080915

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by kentjett View Post
    Is Vlad a free agent next year because if he is, he is worth breaking the bank. He's the type of player that could play until he is in his forties. He is a dynamic hitter and has the best arm in baseball.
    He already can't run anymore at 32, how is he going to produce in his forties? He isn't Barry Bonds.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Yeah, Vlad gets mad when they make him DH, but they claim he can't run like he use to.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    Yeah, Vlad gets mad when they make him DH, but they claim he can't run like he use to.
    Heh, I'm not even talking about base stealing, I mean, he really can't run. He has this awful loping gait.

    I wonder if he has knee or hip problems that no one knows about.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by mroby85 View Post
    Amen, 28-16 in 1 run games, thats the sign of a great manager!
    It truly is. I was looking everywhere and couldn't find that stat.

    Can you post the 1-Run records of all 16 National League teams for this year, and if possible the 1-Run record of the REDS for last year?

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    I'd love to see them make a run at signing Derek Lowe. On the flipside, the free agent pitching market isn't very good and nearly every team will be after Lowe, and it will be hard for the small market Reds to compete for him. They would probably have to overpay to get him (like Cordero).

    Bailey has not proven to be the answer. If Bailey shows any improvement at all next season in triple A, it wouldn't surprise me to see him in the Reds bullpen rather than their starting rotation. I don't see any other minor league pitchers ready to make the jump to the major league rotation at this point. Thompson has been injury-prone most of his career and I hold out no hope of it going away. Micah Owings is possibly the best 5th starter candidate along with Ramirez.
    Owings and Ramirez will battle it out for 5th starter, unless the Reds sign Derek Lowe. That is my opinion. Doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure it out, though.

    Many expect the Reds to either sign Burrell, or make a stab at Vlad Guerrero, or possibly make a trade for Matt Holliday. I think all 3 are difficult financial options because of either free agency (Burrell/Guerrero) and age (same two) or the fact that Holliday is expected to break the bank in free agency.

    Some think Holliday's numbers are inflated playing in Coors Field. Why not trade for him, see how he does in GABP, and possibly sign him during the season if he shows he's the real deal? I'm sure they could find out in advance what kind of money he is looking for.

    If those 3 options fail, I wouldn't mind trading for an Ichiro type player - who shows consistency, until another minor leaguer is ready to move up. I just think it is going to be hard to trade for a power hitter, that is worth it.
    Agree on Bailey and I would settle for the Owings/Ramirez battle for #5 if they will use some money and upgrade the offense.
    A big bat is needed and they are showing the starting pitching will be there.
    If we get a big bat, Hanigan at catcher doesnt bother me.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    ChatterRED, you posted that Thompson has been injury-prone his entire career and you don't see it going away.

    He hasn't been injury-prone. He had Major surgery once. He's steadily recovered from that over the last 3 years without mishaps. What happened this summer was not an injury, but a misuse by the Major League Club and management to put him into a situation he wasn't ready for. His arm got tired. That's totally different. They did an MRI and no damage was done. They're shutting him down. They're being careful with him. He's going to be an important part of the rotation in the near future. He's been stretching out the arm for the last 2 years and they just went a little too far. Thompson had been pitching every 5th day since March 2nd, and the workload along with the 3 jumps in Class....AA, AAA, Majors in one season took it's toll. He should have stayed in AAA where they could have monitored him and kept his pitch count down in the 90's. He'll be OK next year and won't have any injuries or even the tired arm as he'll get 6 months to rest the arm over the Fall and Winter. He should be good to go for 180-190 Innings next year without incident (split between AAA and the Majors). For reference purposes, Volquez is at 188.2 IP after tonight's outing.

    All that said, he needs to be in AAA at least the 1st 2 months of the season and shouldn't sniff the Majors before June. Preferably, the REDS won't need to call him up until August.

    I've been screaming for the REDS to sign Derek Lowe for 3 months now. He's showing us right now why I want him so bad. A former World Series MVP, he's been on fire during this playoff push with an ERA around 1.50 over his last 6 starts.
    Last edited by Kingspoint; 09-18-2008 at 09:01 PM.

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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    ChatterRED, you posted that Thompson has been injury-prone his entire career and you don't see it going away.

    He hasn't been injury-prone. He had Major surgery once. He's steadily recovered from that over the last 3 years without mishaps. What happened this summer was not an injury, but a misuse by the Major League Club and management to put him into a situation he wasn't ready for. His arm got tired. That's totally different. They did an MRI and no damage was done. They're shutting him down. They're being careful with him. He's going to be an important part of the rotation in the near future. He's been stretching out the arm for the last 2 years and they just went a little too far. Thompson had been pitching every 5th day since March 2nd, and the workload along with the 3 jumps in Class....AA, AAA, Majors in one season took it's toll. He should have stayed in AAA where they could have monitored him and kept his pitch count down in the 90's. He'll be OK next year and won't have any injuries or even the tired arm as he'll get 6 months to rest the arm over the Fall and Winter. He should be good to go for 180-190 Innings next year without incident (split between AAA and the Majors). For reference purposes, Volquez is at 188.2 IP after tonight's outing.

    All that said, he needs to be in AAA at least the 1st 2 months of the season and shouldn't sniff the Majors before June. Preferably, the REDS won't need to call him up until August.

    I've been screaming for the REDS to sign Derek Lowe for 3 months now. He's showing us right now why I want him so bad. A former World Series MVP, he's been on fire during this playoff push with an ERA around 1.50 over his last 6 starts.
    Nevertheless, call it a gut feeling I have about Thompson. His "tired" arm scares me. Pitchers shouldn't be getting "tired" in the minors. They don't pitch nearly the same amount of innings as major leaguers.

    I like his stuff, but don't hold out much hope for him impacting the major league club from here on out. I'm still leary of Bailey, also.

    Just my opinion.
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    Re: Reds so far in September

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    It truly is. I was looking everywhere and couldn't find that stat.

    Can you post the 1-Run records of all 16 National League teams for this year, and if possible the 1-Run record of the REDS for last year?
    I actually just saw it on the Reds game the other night, they just lost a 1 run game last night, that they definitely shouldve won if they could get a guy in from 2nd with 0 outs, and they failed both times.


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