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Thread: Bullpen '09

  1. #1
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    Bullpen '09

    Reds pen has a good ERA this year, but if you look across the numbers there is room for much improvement. ERA just doesn't mean that much for a pen.

    For example, the WHIP is 1.41, which is one of the worst in the league. BA against is high. OPS against is 13th in the league, on the negative side.

    I don't know why the ERA is good, maybe because of the way Dusty uses them, maybe just the luck of the draw. The only two relievers with particularly good WHIP numbers are Massett (small sample) and Lincoln (but he's allowed 10 homers in 69 innings to counteract the good WHIP). Affeldt and Cordero have reasonable WHIPs (under 1.4) but most of the others don't. Bray has a good ERA (2.82), a high WHIP (1.61), and has walked 24 in 44 innings. Burton's numbers appear to have fallen off after the injury.

    My conclusion is that the bullpen hasn't been as good as the ERA suggests and that it still needs work. Cordero and Burton are keepers. Affeldt a free agent. Bray is still young and can be very effective in spots. How to handle for next year?

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  3. #2
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    Josh Roenicke and Carlos Fisher both need to be in the bullpen, and dare I say this.... not in that order. Add those two with Burton, Cordero and Bray and we are really getting somewhere. Ramon Ramirez, if he isn't the #5 could be the long guy out of the pen. That right there makes up nearly the entire pen. Thats what I would plan for next year. Look into the market and see whats there and go after some guys.

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    Re: Bullpen '09

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds pen has a good ERA this year, but if you look across the numbers there is room for much improvement. ERA just doesn't mean that much for a pen.

    For example, the WHIP is 1.41, which is one of the worst in the league. BA against is high. OPS against is 13th in the league, on the negative side.

    I don't know why the ERA is good, maybe because of the way Dusty uses them, maybe just the luck of the draw. The only two relievers with particularly good WHIP numbers are Massett (small sample) and Lincoln (but he's allowed 10 homers in 69 innings to counteract the good WHIP). Affeldt and Cordero have reasonable WHIPs (under 1.4) but most of the others don't. Bray has a good ERA (2.82), a high WHIP (1.61), and has walked 24 in 44 innings. Burton's numbers appear to have fallen off after the injury.

    My conclusion is that the bullpen hasn't been as good as the ERA suggests and that it still needs work. Cordero and Burton are keepers. Affeldt a free agent. Bray is still young and can be very effective in spots. How to handle for next year?
    Wow! Good post. I have to go to work right now but I need to look closer at the points you've brought up. The points you mention come very much in line with my view of the bully based upon watching games.

    Rem

  5. #4
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    LH BP

    Bill Bray
    Jeremy Affeldt
    Danny Herrera
    Bobby Livingston
    Tyler Pelland

    RH BP

    Jared Burton
    Mike Lincoln
    Ramon Ramierez
    Josh Roenicke
    Micah Owings
    Carlos Fisher

    CL Coco Cordero

    * Cordero, Burton and Bray are locks if healthy.

    * I'd bring back Lincoln and/or Affeldt for the right contract.

    * If they are not in the rotation, I think at least one from Owings, Ramierez and Livingston stand a good chance of making it. All can give you spot starts and long/middle relief. Livngston would give you an extra LHer. Owings gives you another PHer on the bench as well as an arm. Owings hitting ability makes it even more likely that they carry an extra pitcher instead of an extra position player.

    * I like Herrera as a 2nd LH option if Affeldt isn't back (he likely won't be). Pellend, with his power arm, is another option, but his control works agaisnt him.

    * Roenicke and Fisher stand a good shot of filling the RH role behind Cordero & Burton. That shot improves if Lincoln and Weathers leave.

    * I'd be surprised if they didn't add a solid veteran or two before ST if Affeldt and Weathers leave - especially a LHer. Stormy has done a solid job for the Reds the last few years, but I think it's time to go in another direction. Don't completely ruleout the possibility that he returns.

    * There will be three or four journeyman relievers brought in and at least one will push for a spot.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 09-20-2008 at 02:01 PM.

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    Re: Bullpen '09

    WHile ERA isn't necessarily a very good indicator always of an individuals success, it tends to be much better for an entire billpen. As long as th eneire bullpen isn't giving up runs, something must be going right.

    The Reds record are 7 innings of games it is leading is quite good, and a pretty good indicator that the bullpen usually gets the job done.

    If the Cards had the same success in that area, they would have the wild card locked up.

  7. #6
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    Part of the problem with bullpen ERA is that a decent amount of the runs they allow are from runners left on base by starters. They accrue some portion of their innings in outs 2 and 3 of innings in which they enter the game, making it easier for them to escape problems of their own creation. It's not a huge effect, but it's there.

    On balance, I think the bullpen is actually set up to be much better next year. We do have to realize though that our $13M closer is a 1.35 WHIP guy as opposed to the sub 1.00 WHIPs from truly elite closers. That's a significantly different anchor point. I'm most worried about replacing Affeldt's contributions. Other than that, I'm not concerned.

    Here's some data to chew on. All IP throw in relief, sorted by FIP.

    Code:
    NAME 		GP 	  IP    P/G	Sv     HLD	 H 	HR     IBB     HBP	 BB 	 SO 	 H/9	HR/9	BB/9	 K/9 	WHIP 	ER 	ERA	  FIP	ERA-FIP
    A. Harang	 1	 4.0	4.0	 0	 0	 2	 0	 0	 0 	  1	  9	 4.5	 0.0	 2.3	20.3	0.75	0	0.00    -0.55	  0.55
    A. Pettyjohn	 1	 1.0	1.0	 0	 0	 2	 0	 0	 0 	  0	  1	18.0	 0.0	 0.0	 9.0	2.00	0	0.00	 1.20	 -1.20
    R. Ramirez	 1	 3.0	3.0	 0	 0	 0	 0	 0	 0	  0	  2	 0.0	 0.0	 0.0	 6.0	0.00	0	0.00	 1.87	 -1.87
    B. Bray		58	44.7	0.8	 0	 7	48	 4 	 5	 1	 24	 49	 9.7	 0.8	 4.8	 9.9	1.61	14	2.82	 3.51	 -0.69
    F. Cordero	69	67.3	1.0	31	 0	57	 5	 3	 3	 36	 73	 7.6	 0.7	 4.8	 9.8	1.38	24	3.21	 3.60	 -0.39
    J. Fogg		 8	16.0	2.0	 0	 1	17	 1	 0	 0	  4	  9	 9.6	 0.6	 2.3	 5.1	1.31	9	5.06	 3.64	  1.42
    J. Affeldt	71	74.0	1.0	 0	 5	76	 9	 0	 2	 23	 75	 9.2	 1.1	 2.8	 9.1	1.34	29	3.53	 3.77	 -0.24
    J. Burton	50	55.0	1.1	 0	10	54	 6	 3	 2	 24	 55	 8.8	 1.0	 3.9	 9.0	1.42	21	3.44	 3.87	 -0.43
    D. Herrera	 3	 4.0	1.3	 0	 0	 6	 1	 2	 0	  2	  5	13.5	 2.3	 4.5	11.3	2.00	3	6.75	 3.95	  2.80
    D. Weathers	68	66.0	1.0	 0	16	73	 6	 8	 3	 28	 45	10.0	 0.8	 3.8	 6.1	1.53	24	3.27	 4.06	 -0.79
    M. Lincoln	61	69.0	1.1	 0	10	64	10	 1	 2	 23	 56	 8.3	 1.3	 3.0	 7.3	1.26	35	4.57	 4.50	  0.07
    J. Roenicke	 2	 1.3	0.7	 0	 0	 2	 0	 0	 1 	  1	  2	13.5	 0.0	 6.8	13.5	2.25	1	6.75	 4.70	  2.05
    K. Mercker	15	13.7	0.9	 0	 0	13	 1	 1	 0	  8	  6	 8.6	 0.7	 5.3	 4.0	1.54	5	3.29	 4.81	 -1.52
    N. Masset	10	17.3	1.7	 0	 1	16	 3	 0	 0	  5	 11	 8.3	 1.6	 2.6	 5.7	1.21	4	2.08	 5.05	 -2.97
    G. Majewski	34	37.7	1.1	 0	 2	52	 6	 0	 3	 14	 24	12.4	 1.4	 3.3	 5.7	1.75	24	5.73	 5.35	  0.38
    J. Adkins	 2	 1.3	0.7	 0	 0	 1	 0	 1	 0	  2	  0	 6.8	 0.0	13.5	 0.0	2.25	0	0.00	 5.45	 -5.45
    T. Coffey	17	19.3	1.1	 0	 0	25	 4	 0	 1	  6	  8	11.6	 1.9	 2.8	 3.7	1.60	13	6.05	 6.15	 -0.10
    E. Volquez	 1	 1.7	1.7	 0	 0	 1	 1	 0	 0	  1	  2	 5.4	 5.4	 5.4	10.8	1.20	0	0.00	10.40   -10.40
    Totals 	       472     496.3	1.1	31	52     509	57      24	18	202	432	 9.2	 1.0	 3.7	 7.8	1.43	206	3.74	 4.14	 -0.40
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 09-20-2008 at 02:47 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  8. #7
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    RHP:

    Ramon Ramirez/Micah Owings
    Carlos Fisher
    Josh Roenicke
    Jared Burton
    Francisco Cordero

    LHP:

    Bill Bray

    Bray shouldn't be the primary lefty but he's fine as the second option. I'd like to see another lefty brought in. Damaso Marte would be nice as long as he doesn't cost us a draft pick.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  9. #8
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    This is one area that I am anxious to see what Mr. Jocketty does during the off-season and the steps that he takes getting there. I sense that he will make improvements that will be effective difference makers.

  10. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    I will take a 4.14 FIP out of my bullpen every day of the week and not complain about it once.

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    Re: Bullpen '09

    I wonder whether the faces will be as familiar as many think. Other than Cordero and Burton, I don't think anyone is a lock to return, frankly.

    Weathers and Affeldt are free agents, who knows if they will be signed.

    Doubtful to me that Majewski or Lincoln will return. Maj has been improved this year, but obviously is questionable to return. Lincoln pitched great for awhile, but allowed too many homers and had a rough late season stretch.

    Bray has a great arm, but the Reds may conclude he is worth more as trade bait, particularly with his good ERA. He hasn't been consistent enough to be considered untouchable. Just a feeling that he could be available in one of the inevitable trades.

    Roenicke throws hard but seems unpolished and, despite being older than the usual AAA prospect, may still need some more seasoning. Fisher didn't even get a call-up and is a recent convert to the bullpen. Fisher's ground ball tendencies could give him Majewski's spot, but making the club is a long-shot.

    Who knows how the Reds feel about Herrera, who is an unusual pitcher although he has been extremely effective in the minors.

    I'm happy that the Reds have Massett, Ramirez, and Owings, all are potential multi-inning relievers if they don't start. This has been a real pet peeve of mine the last couple years. Every team needs two guys who are workhorse relievers, can pitch multiple innings frequently. Reds haven't had them of late. Scott Sullivan, where are you?

    So, I'd guess that the bullpen will change in the off-season, perhaps more than we think.

  12. #11
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    People seem to be overlooking Nick Masset in the bullpen mix. I think the Reds have lots of depth. Lincoln is probably going to be cheap enough to bring back with his late season problems, but I still think he has the arm to be an asset with a little more judicious usage. He's not a free agent unless the Reds let him go.

    Cordero, Burton, Lincoln, Long Man (Owings/Ramirez), Bray, Herrera, and a choice of Masset/Roenicke/Fisher. The Reds could deal say a Roenicke and a Pelland to some team looking to add a power arm or two to the mix (the Marlins come to mind) and still have enough to set-up nicely for the season with guys like Zach Stewart, Mace Thurman, Sean Watson and Robert Manual on the way in the minors. There is also the possibility of guys like Matt Maloney and Sam Lecure being converted to relief. I think the pen is an area where some money can be saved (bye bye Affeldt and Weathers) some guys who didn't work out can be sent packing (Belisle, Majewski, etc.) and still have enough youthful promise to make a deal or two to help the other areas of the team.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #12
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    I'd like to see at least two solid LHs in the pen. I like Bray better as the middle guy. If Affeldt is not re-signed then I don't want to have to replace both LHers, so I'd probably hold on to Bray.

    If someone knocks my socks off or he can complete a bigger deal as a thrown-in - by all means, deal him. I suspect though, his value is greater than what he would bring in trade.

    I think part of the reason that Fisher wasn't called up was the need to add him to the 40-man. A big ST camp might get him on the Opening Day roster, but I suspect that he starts at Louisville. I think we will see him debut in Cincy at some point next year.

    I'm guessing that the Opening Day bullpen has at least one arm from outside the organization, but no more than two.

  14. #13
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    In my dreams, the Reds capitalize on the bullpen depth to turn this team around with a couple deals:

    1. Francisco Cordero (I know he has a no trade clause but its my dream), Homer Bailey and Alex Gonzalez (with the Reds paying all of his salary) to Milwaukee for JJ Hardy and Bill Hall. Why the Brewers would do it: They want to turn SS over to Escobar, the Bullpen has been a nightmare and they liked Cordero while he was there, they need starter candidates and Bailey is still young and is still highly regarded, the want out from under Hall's contract.

    2. Josh Roenicke, Tyler Pelland, Chris Valaika, Travis Wood and Paul Janish to the Marlins for Kevin Gregg, Cody Ross and Robert Andino. Why the Marlins would do it: They intend to let Matt Lindstrom close and don't want to pay Gregg a closer's salary to set-up, Ross will go to Arb with an .800+ OPS under his belt and Cameron Maybin is probably going to push him to the bench, Valaika gives them another offensive minded infielder if Uggla gets too expensive and Cantu falls off a bit, the Marlins have the positions and the rotation in good shape heading to 2009, they want young hard throwers to fill in the middle of the pen and Roenicke qualifies with Pelland a hard throwing lefty to boot.

    Post deals Reds:

    Dickerson/Freel CF
    Hardy SS
    Votto 1B
    Bruce RF
    EdE 3B
    Phillips 2B
    Ross LF
    Hanigan/Castillo C

    Other bench players:
    Bill Hall 3B/LF/SS/1B?
    Robert Andino SS/2B/3B
    Danny Richar 2B, LHPH

    Rotation:

    Harang
    Volquez
    Arroyo
    Cueto
    Ramirez

    Bullpen:
    Gregg (CL)
    Burton
    Bray (L)
    Masset
    Lincoln
    Herrera (L)
    Owings (Long Relief/Spot Starter/PH)

    A phone call away:
    Drew Stubbs
    Yonder Alonso
    Adam Rosales
    Danny Dorn
    Norris Hopper
    Shaun Cumberland
    Sean Henry
    Matt Maloney
    Carlos Fsher
    Sam Lecure
    Daryl Thompson
    Robert Manual
    Last edited by mth123; 09-20-2008 at 07:54 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  15. #14
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    I love Hardy, but I want more that just him for Coredero and Bailey. Bill Hall does little for me. Yes, he has killed the Reds, but if he were over here he'd be one of those players most love to hate - I'd rather re-sign Hairston.

    I'd be fine with Brandon Puillips back if they'd hit him sixth or seventh, but if he returns Dusty will have he and his bad-pitch-swinging, sub.320 OBP self will be hitting third or fourth. I'd rather deal him for something while there may be a market and free up his salary to help add a RH LF and sacrifice probably sacrifice some defens at second for a higher OBP hitter. I would also need to have a SS with much better range than Kepp though.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 09-20-2008 at 06:13 PM.

  16. #15
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Bullpen '09

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    I love Hardy, but I want more that just him for Coredero and Bailey. Bill Hall does little for me. Yes, he has killed the Reds, but if he were over here he'd be one of those players most love to hate - I'd rather re-sign Hairston.

    I'd be fine with Brandon Puillips back if thet'd hit him sixth or seventh, but if he returns Dusty will have he and his bad-pitch-swinging, sub.320 OBP hitting third or fourth. I'd rather deal him for something while there may be a market and free up his salary to help add a RH LF and sacrifice probably sacrifice some defens at second for a higher OBP hitter. I would also need to have a SS with much better range than Kepp though.
    I'd like more as well, but I don't think they could get it. Hardy is a top 5 SS IMO and would fix the team's number 1 weakness at this point. I see that I omitted Keppinger on my team. Perhaps he could be added to the deal to replace Hall in MIL while the Reds get away with givng a lesser pitcher than Bailey. I really think the Brewers are going to want to be able to fix the pen and to add to the rotation mix to deal Hardy. Maybe Thompson could be substituted for Bailey. I'd rather have Bailey going forward than Thompson. I think the Reds would have to take Hall's contract in order to move Cordero's dollars in a deal like that (with Milwaukee giving him a nice bonus to waive his no trade clause). If the Reds could get Gregg they wouldn't really be losing much in the exchange of closers.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-20-2008 at 07:19 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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