Dusty says the Reds must improve their defense in 2009

[OnBaseMachine]

I wouldn't give Hairston anything more than a one year, $1 million deal.

[Will M]

I wouldn't give Hairston anything more than a one year, $1 million deal.

one year $750,000 or $1M with incentives.

Hairston when healthy has been very good this year. I would rather have him than any other RH bench player we have ( Kep, Freel, etc )

[HokieRed]

I don't think you're going to get him for those numbers. Somebody will offer him at least two years and, at 32, he's unlikely to settle for a one-year deal.

[Raisor]

I don't think you're going to get him for those numbers. Somebody will offer him at least two years and, at 32, he's unlikely to settle for a one-year deal.

then he becomes someone else's "solution".

[RedsManRick]

He's a gamer

What's a gamer? Good for him. Does that score runs or prevent them? If it's akin to hustle or attitude and it doesn't eventually lead to more runs scored or fewer runs allowed (which will show up in the box score), then who cares? I'm a gamer too. I'll play wherever, whenever I'm asked, and I'll hustle the whole time -- but it doesn't justify my spot on a 25 man roster.

he's a leadoff hitter

Leadoff is a spot in the lineup, not a skill set. Hairston has never put up a season with 300+ AB and an OBP higher than .336. Speed cannot offset this. His current OBP is buoyed significantly by good luck. Anybody who likes Hairston as a leadoff hitter should love Dickerson, who's 6 years younger, plays a better CF, is faster, has gotten on base more, and slugged more than Hairston has. Maybe he's not a gamer though. I dunno. I guess you'd rather old, but proven mediocrity, than young, athletic and making a significant leap forward as he enters his prime. Though I'd love see some evidence suggesting that Dickerson's strikeout numbers suggest a slide back and that Hairston's BABIP is nothing to be concerned about. Nothing like an unsubstantiated claim to back up an argument.

he's versatile

Versatility isn't all that valuable by itself -- it has to be paired with an ability to be an asset at the positions at which the guy plays. There are dozens of guys in AAA across the sport who can play multiple positions defensively and not embarrass themselves. One of them is is Ryan Freel - a similar player who is under contract for 2009 at $4M.

There are worse bench options out there than Jerry Hairston Jr. He's had a wonderful 2008 and I wouldn't mind having him back for a million bucks. But if you think his presence on the roster in 2009 makes any difference whatsoever for our chances of success, you've missed the boat.

[Spring~Fields]

We're not going to agree on Hairston. I wouldn't pay him $5 million a year and I wouldn't pencil him in for 120 games, but from what I've seen the Reds would be nuts to just let him walk. He's a gamer, he's a leadoff hitter, and he's versatile. For those who are jumping up and down with glee over Dickerson, he's struck out in one third of his at bats and he's also had injury problems in his first season. He's much more of a risk to slide backward with those strikeout numbers. I'd settle for both on the team next year and let's see what happens.

I think that too many of you are pleased with bench fodder and a team made up of mostly utility players. I guess the Reds have lost for so long that almost anything looks good to Reds fans who forget that the team has to compete against next years Chicago, St. Louis, Houston and Milwuakee, not against last years Reds team.

Well with the new general manager, Walt Jocketty, I was and I am expecting the Reds to have a higher caliber of players and better players than they would have with a Krivsky or O’Brien as GM.

I fully expect that players such as Hairston, Dickerson, Patterson, Bako, Cabrera, Mercker, Freel, Hopper, Fogg and Valentin would not be deemed good enough for a Jocketty team, surely he will do better than those types of players?

If Jocketty can’t come up with better players than Krivsky or O’Brien, well, surely that would not be the case, especially with the cash available and trading chips such as some of the pitching, and position players, Bruce, Votto, Phillips and Encarcion. Jocketty has options that no GM has had with the Reds since the 90's, so I expect him a winning GM to reach for the stars of success, and the utility cast offs, are not what it takes to beat the competition in the central, we have seen that for many years now.

Surely Jocketty won’t have a roster made up predominately of utility players cast off from other teams.

If you could sign Hairston today for next year, and then tried to trade him over the off-season, what could you get in return for him? That will tell me how much value he has for the Reds.

I suspect very little if anything.

[SMcGavin]

It might be more difficult if he had done it over more than a few hundred PA's.

Right now he's basically had a "career" 1/3 of a season as a Red.

Yeah, no doubt it's been a small sample size. But what I think IslandRed is saying, and I agree with, is that Hairston's not having a poor season that has luckily given him good results. His 2008 success has been legit.

Hairston is not like the career bad pitcher who puts up a good ERA one year despite a K/9 and BB/9 right in line with his sucky career norms. He's like the career bad pitcher who suddenly starts striking out a bunch of guys.

Whether the Hairston we are seeing in 2008 is here to stay is certainly up for debate. But this year he's not a judy hitter who is seeing a few hits fall in. He's been a very good hitter.

[fearofpopvol1]

I'd have no issue with Hairston being a utility player for the Reds next year, especially if Freel can be moved.

I would not give him more than $1 million and I'd try to push for a 1 year contract.

[edabbs44]

Dusty sometimes thinks he is a GM...Walt should call him into his office after reading those quotes and say "Thanks for the advice Dusty, we'll let you know when we want your opinion on next year's roster. And by the way, remind me to talk to you about who plays and who doesn't next year and where they play/hit."

[RedsManRick]

Yeah, no doubt it's been a small sample size. But what I think IslandRed is saying, and I agree with, is that Hairston's not having a poor season that has luckily given him good results. His 2008 success has been legit.

Hairston is not like the career bad pitcher who puts up a good ERA one year despite a K/9 and BB/9 right in line with his sucky career norms. He's like the career bad pitcher who suddenly starts striking out a bunch of guys.

Whether the Hairston we are seeing in 2008 is here to stay is certainly up for debate. But this year he's not a judy hitter who is seeing a few hits fall in. He's been a very good hitter.

Except it is almost exactly like that good ERA from a mediocre pitcher. It's not the pitcher's strikeouts that have gone up. It's that his hits allowed have gone down. He's still allowing the same amount of contact, the batted balls just are turning in to outs with more regularity.

Hairston is not making more contact. He's not striking out less. He's not walking more. He's hitting for a touch more power, but is still below average in that regard and is coming from more doubles, not homers. Not that I begrudge the doubles, but those are balls finding gaps instead of gloves and the right side of the foul line. The fundamentals of his game are unchanged. All that has changed is the results. And given that, the results are likely to regress significantly to where they've been throughout his career.

Over the past 3 years, among full time players (min 1400 PA), the highest sustained LD% is 25.4%, with a total of 15 guys (of 125) over 22.0%. Jerry Hairston is at 28.7%. Unless Hairston really has become a better hitter line drive hitter than Michael Young, Ryan Howard, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer, Kevin Youkilis, and Manny Ramirez, you can expect him to regress pretty substantially. 17 guys have a BABIP at or above .340, led by Derek Jeter's .367. Hairston is sitting at .371.

So what happens? Let's say he regresses to that still quite impressive 22.0 LD%. His batting average will fall ~40 points, bringing his OBP and SLG down with it. He's back to being a decent utility guy. Nothing to get worked up about certainly. And this is a best case scenario in which he has genuinely improved.

[GAC]

Good to see Dusty wants Hairston back. With Freel on the roster, we certainly could use another utility guy.

As long as we don't give him a contract similar to Freel's. Hairston is arb eligible too. Could be interesting.

And clearly Hairston has turned a corner in his career, reaching a new level of production which can we expect him to sustain.............

OK. You're being sarcastic now right? :

If only we could add speed. The article made it very clear that Dusty is more interested a fielding a team that fits his 1970's image of success than one built to win in today's modern game.

I'm really tired of the idea that speed is a substitute for power. Speed is a marginal part of an offense. The Reds need to get on base more -- plain and simple. And all too often, speed comes not just at the expense of power, but OBP too...

Twice in the last week I've read interviews with Dusty where he is salivating over speed. Which makes me worry even more, with our success here in September, that he's gonna fill his roster, going into next season, with terrible OB%, low power guys, who are as fast as greased lightning. Because these kind of guys can make things happen.

Dusty said you can do alot of things with speed. But as you alluded to above....Not if it can't get on base!

GABP is not Riverfront.

Today's game....

One can see (except Dusty) that Arroyo was off today. The Brewers just touched him up for 3 runs in the top of the 4th, and they are now down 4-0. In the bottom of the inning we load the bases with no outs. Richar grounds out to score a run. Dusty does a somersault in the dugout. Hanigan gets HBP to reload the bases.

Dusty lets Arroyo bat for himself. What was Dusty expecting Arroyo to do in this situation? Sacrifice another run in? This is Dusty ball at it's best (or worse).

The Brewers then come back and expand the lead on Arroyo, with help from Richar's poor defense.

Why have the Reds been successful in September? For the most part....

#1 - sound pitching.
#2 - power

Guys like Votto and Bruce. Not the Richars, Cabreras, etc.

[Spring~Fields]

Dusty sometimes thinks he is a GM...Walt should call him into his office after reading those quotes and say "Thanks for the advice Dusty, we'll let you know when we want your opinion on next year's roster. And by the way, remind me to talk to you about who plays and who doesn't next year and where they play/hit."

[jojo]

Yeah, no doubt it's been a small sample size. But what I think IslandRed is saying, and I agree with, is that Hairston's not having a poor season that has luckily given him good results. His 2008 success has been legit.

Hairston is not like the career bad pitcher who puts up a good ERA one year despite a K/9 and BB/9 right in line with his sucky career norms. He's like the career bad pitcher who suddenly starts striking out a bunch of guys.

Whether the Hairston we are seeing in 2008 is here to stay is certainly up for debate. But this year he's not a judy hitter who is seeing a few hits fall in. He's been a very good hitter.

I understood IR's argument perfectly and my point stands.

There can be considerable variation in "skill" metrics, especially over smaller stretches of PA's/innings/whatever. That's just the nature of the beast. Performance doesn't regress to the mean only because of spikes in luck metrics. It regresses to the mean period.

At issue is what is Hairston's true skill level (i.e. the mean his performance will regress to)?

So once again as suggested by my original response to IR, for those who think Hairston has had an epiphany at age 32 during a conversation with a hitting coach, I leave you with this concerning his 260 PA's as a Red:

The major league high LD% for all qualified players so far in '08 is 26.7%. The highest LD% posted by any qualified player since '04 was 27.5%. Hairston's career LD% is 22.9%. Hairston's LD% as a Red is 28.7%. If his true skill level has indeed legitimately and dramatically increased, he is now one of the best line drive hitters in the world....

I'm thinking his next 250 PA's will be more like his first 2,500 than his last 250.

[AmarilloRed]

Let's compare Hairston to Jeff Keppinger. I quite frequently posted last year that Keppinger could be a starting position player. Jeff's BA dropped from .332 to .263, his BABIP from .335 to .272, his OBP from .400 to .308, and his SLG. from .477 to .344. I think we could see a similar drop next year with Hairston. Some of the decline in Keppinger's numbers can be attributed to the injuries, but not all. Hairston could be a valuable bench player, but let's not give him a Freel-type contract.

[SMcGavin]

So what happens? Let's say he regresses to that still quite impressive 22.0 LD%. His batting average will fall ~40 points, bringing his OBP and SLG down with it. He's back to being a decent utility guy. Nothing to get worked up about certainly. And this is a best case scenario in which he has genuinely improved.

That's pretty much exactly what I'm expecting. It's not that Hairston suddenly had an "epiphany" (has anyone on this thread suggested that?). More that he is back to the guy he was throughout his twenties, a guy who can play a few positions capably and OPS in the .720 range. Not someone I'm throwing a parade for but a nice player to have around. I'm not advocating some sort of multi-year deal, but if Hairston wants to come back for cheap I'd like to have him.