Doug what do you think will happen with Francisco this year?
Doug what do you think will happen with Francisco this year?
He slugs .600 in Carolina and goes to AAA mid season with Alonso and Frazier. He doesn't fare as well the other two in AAA though. I am intrigued by his improved OBP skills in the DWL, but they still aren't all that good and I want to see it in AA next year.Originally Posted by icehole3
Doug, do you have his K numbers? I'd love to see him walk more too, but just making more contact would be a start.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Reds have allowed Francisco to advance one level at a time, one per year. It would be in his best interests to spend all next year at AA. He's younger, didn't have the college experience, needs to work on bat control.
But since he's on the 40 man roster, they could move him more quickly, which would be too bad IMO.
Francisco DWL regular + post season
Code:ab h 2b 3b hr bb k avg obp slg pa bb% k% 232 80 14 2 18 17 57 .345 .409 .655 259 6.6% 22%
At High A last year JF fanned 123 times in 516 at bats. For a power hitter, that is not a high rate. It is a K every 4.2 at bats, a 23.8 percent strikeout rate.
Some comparables in the majors for Ks per official time at bat. Not comparing overall ability, just this single stat.
ARod may be the closest comp I found, was 117 Ks in 510 at bats. Adam Laroche 122 Ks in 492 at bats. Longoria (122/448) fanned at a higher rate. BJ Upton (134/531) generally similar to JF. Geovany Soto (121/494) very close to JF.
JF did have a higher K rate the previous season, 2007. And, of course, if you look at strikeouts -- or most any adverse statistic -- as a function of total plate appearances JF suffers because of his lack of walks.
Following JF's numbers, he seems quite proficient at making contact, which helps his BA, SLG and RBI numbers. He needs to walk more.
Last edited by Kc61; 01-18-2009 at 07:08 PM.
From BA
Dominican Winter Spotlight
Posted Jan. 15, 2009 10:28 am by Kary Booher
Filed under: Winter Ball
Sift through the pile of stats coming out of the Dominican League, and it’s almost too good to be true.
Pablo Ozuna, a 34-year-old third baseman, must have found the fountain of youth. What else to make of his time there? When the playoffs got under way, he was the regular-season batting champ and led in on-base percentage and was third in slugging in finishing .390/.467/.568.
But on the website BA uses to check the Dominican League’s official stats, the names of the ERA leaders are, well, absent. And maybe that’s to protect the innocent.
The Dominican League’s runs per game came in at a whopping 5.9 this year. That was a full two runs more than a year ago, and 1.7 runs more than in 2006. More surprising, consider hits from last year (2,355) compared to this year (2,963), and consider home runs from last year (126) to home runs this year (289).
So what gives?
"The pitching was down, and the umpires were awful," one National League scout said. "The pitchers were kind of forced to lay it in there. And there were comments like, ‘We’ve never seen this before.’"
Other front-office personnel echoed those comments.
"The pitching looked very suspect to what I’ve seen in the past," Rangers farm director Scott Servais acknowledged.
And from Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita came this nugget, "All I can tell you is I’ve had a lot of calls, guys asking for pitching," Fleita said. "It’s hard. Guys aren’t pitching as much this winter."
To compare, consider the high Class A California League and the Arizona Fall League, two circuits long known as hitters’ havens.
The Cal League’s runs per game last season were 5.2, while the AFL checked in with a chart-topping 6.9 runs per game.
In other words, in this Dominican League notebook, use the stats as somewhat of a guide but proceed with caution.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
Well, that really takes the wind out of my Juan Francisco sails.
Well, definitely take his DWL stats with a grain of salt, but his numbers have been so great that you can discount them a little bit and they are still quite impressive.
Francisco did get 62 extra base hits as a 21 year old playing in a pitcher's high-A league. His success didn't just begin in the DWL He obviously has ability.
The question is how he will do at the higher minor league levels. I'm optimistic, but we'll see.
Fwiw, the article said that pitchers felt a need to throw the ball over the plate, which only makes Francisco's walks look better.
it's the opposite.
Because he was swinging at less pitches than he should have?
it's easier to get walks when umps are calling smaller strike zones.
high walk totals by a player are more impressive when umps have expanded strike zones.
You can look at it 2 ways.
His numbers are inflated because he saw so many pitches in the zone
or
His walks are inflated because the strike zone was so small.
Both couldnt really be happening because the only thing that is different about his numbers is the walk rate.
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