I understand the judgment on Mesoraco. You're taking a big risk on a catcher, particularly out of HS. He's of great value if he can catch; if he can't, his value slips a whole lot. That seemed to be what Callis was saying. Bad news for us if true.
I understand the judgment on Mesoraco. You're taking a big risk on a catcher, particularly out of HS. He's of great value if he can catch; if he can't, his value slips a whole lot. That seemed to be what Callis was saying. Bad news for us if true.
I thought there was a chance we'd only see Soto here. BA is going to see the Reds system as only average, given the graduation of Bruce, Votto and Cueto -- I guarantee that -- so these rankings will not be sprinkled with Reds on each level. I think Soto remains underrated by BA even though he's #10 here. And, going forward, I think Cozart will earn more recognition, as will Horst if he stays healthy. I really don't know about Mes, since I don't have a good grasp of how behind he is defensively, though my sense is that he can iron out the problems with hard work. But that's just a guess. I see Waring as a long shot, still.
Another note -- Jim Callis has been a huge Mike Moustakas supporter, even while Moustakas was scuffling early in the year. We'll see if Moustakas merits being higher than guys like Wallace and Revere and Felix...and Soto.
Yeah, and in his age 19 season in the Midwest League, Corey Patterson had a .946 OPS. That same year a 19-year-old named Jeff Goldbach had a .860 OPS. Looking through quickly, a couple other illustrious names who acheived a .840+ OPS in the Midwest League as nineteen year olds:Originally Posted by dougdirt
Brad Nelson
Shin-Soo Choo
So Soto's numbers put him in a class that includes Adam Dunn, Corey Patterson, and Shin-Soo Choo. In other words, this sort of comparison is completely useless.
Hard for me to imagine that anyone who saw Soto this season would say that Lambo and Beltre are better prospects than he is. I have to think that the fact that most of the Western Division managers only saw him play three games would factor in, while those two players were in the league all year. I saw everyone on that list this season and I would put Soto at number six or higher.
The power is there for Soto even though the numbers might not be eye-popping. At this point, he is more of a gap to gap hitter. He will learn to turn on the ball as he develops. It is not a case where he does not have the power to hit home runs. His style of hitting right now is to drive the ball in the gaps. As I have said before, I am not concerned at all about the walks. He does sometimes chase sliders out of the zone, but he played on a team this year where he was hitting third and expected to drive in runs and that was his role, not to go up there trying to draw a walk.
If you saw Mesoraco this season, you know he is not a top 20 prospect, as I have said on here before. That is not to say that he can't become a big league player eventually, but he has a long way to go, especially defensively. If they had put him in the top 20, it would have been strictly based on the fact that he was a number one pick.
As far as Cozart, Waring, and Horst, you will notice that Baseball America really went heavy on high school players. Brett Wallace is a college guy but he is a 2008 draft pick. The list is filled with 19 year olds. If you compare two shortstops, Cozart and Justin Jackson, who is 14th on the list and 19 years old, there is no comparison between the two offensively or defensively. Cozart is the far superior player. But Baseball America really discounted the 22 year olds.
Not sure how Revere fell to number four. The league managers voted his as the top prospect in the league. Based on the managers I talked to, it was virtually unanimous.
Bottom line, there will be plenty of guys not on this list that will be quality big leaguers, and there will be guys in the top 10 on this list that will never get to Triple-A. So you have to take it for what it is worth.
To me, Moustakas is absolutely far and away the best prospect in the league. He really struggled in April. After I saw him play (May 3rd), he went out and showed why he was the best prospect in the league. From May onward he hit .289/.351/.518 as a 19 year old in one of the toughest leagues to hit in in all of the minors. He also walked at a solid rate and struck out at a low rate, especially for a guy slugging .500+
Q: Deywane from Memphis asks:
Will Neftali Soto be the Reds #1 prospect?
A: Jim Callis: I'm guessing that will be Yonder Alonso instead.
I agree with most of what you said, particularly about Soto. I would have ranked Revere outside of my top 5 without question. He has very little power, is a real little guy and has a noodle arm. He has crazy bat control and his speed will always play but I just can't put him that high because I don't think he projects as well as some of these other guys. Granted I only saw him play 3 times this year, but from people I have talked to his arm is questionable even for CF and his size just doesn't project to much power at all.
As far as Mesoraco goes, I think its an iffy situation. I probably would have had him 18th or 19th on my list because of what he could be, not really what he did do.
Absolutely. BA loves the young player with tools. The older more polished prospect whose ceiling is major league average does little for them.As far as Cozart, Waring, and Horst, you will notice that Baseball America really went heavy on high school players. Brett Wallace is a college guy but he is a 2008 draft pick. The list is filled with 19 year olds. If you compare two shortstops, Cozart and Justin Jackson, who is 14th on the list and 19 years old, there is no comparison between the two offensively or defensively. Cozart is the far superior player. But Baseball America really discounted the 22 year olds.
On draft day in 2007, BA had Revere ranked well below where he was drafted, maybe around #80. They declared him an obvious reach by the Twins. Meanwhile, Moustakas was in the top 5. Some things don't change at BA.Not sure how Revere fell to number four. The league managers voted his as the top prospect in the league. Based on the managers I talked to, it was virtually unanimous.
That's for sure.Bottom line, there will be plenty of guys not on this list that will be quality big leaguers, and there will be guys in the top 10 on this list that will never get to Triple-A. So you have to take it for what it is worth.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. It's great to read the opinion of someone who watches these guys on a consistent basis.
I've frequently posted my view that Soto was a bit overhyped and Francisco a bit underhyped around here. I see BA may agree.
I won't repeat all the specifics, they are in the RedsZone threads, but when you look at Francisco's power production in the difficult FSL this year -- along with his plus arm -- it's hard not to get excited.
In addition, his strikeouts are down and Francisco's BA is reasonable, .277. Similar to last year at Dayton, I recall. And, as goes along with power and a good BA sometimes, he gets a lot of RBIs. My recall is that he had 34 doubles and 23 homers at Sarasota.
His problem is obvious, but his power production is so great that IMO he projects very high among Reds prospects.
I'd put Alonso ahead of him. Stubbs because he's discovering his offensive potential and is a polished defender. Probably Frazier and Soto as 3 and 4. Then comes Francisco in my book. BA might even reverse the two of them and put Francisco four. To me, it's Alonso, Stubbs, Frazier, Soto, Francisco.
There will be some upset players when they see they were left off the list. Horst will see some guys on that list that he completely dominated this season.
If you want to think about how hard it is to project what guys will do four years into the future, think about how badly organizations miss on their own players over ONE season. I mean, Jeremy Horst was absolutely the best starting pitcher in the Midwest League once he went into the starting rotation at the start of the second half. And there apparently were people within the Reds organization that, when the decision was made to move him into the rotation, did not think he could cut it as a starter. That's why they waited so long to make the switch. So if they were that wrong on their own player WITHIN a season, how hard is it to predict what a player will do in future years at higher levels?
Yonder Alonso
Neftali Soto
Todd Frazier
Drew Stubbs
Juan Francisco
That's how I would rank them. I like Francisco, he probably has the best power out of anyone in the organization but he needs to close up some holes in his swing before he reaches the upper levels.
It is possible that three of those five -- Alonso, Frazier, Francisco -- will all be together as the heart of the AA order next season. It will be very interesting to see how they progress. I think that is the next cluster of major prospects for the Reds.
It's interesting over the years how the strength of the organization has been left handed bats (Votto, Bruce, Dunn, Griffey, Hamilton), but now the strength in the minors seems to be shifting to the right side with Soto, Frazier, Stubbs, Valaika, and eventually Juan Duran and Yorman Rodriguez. Of course Alonso and Francisco are lefties.
I understand the idea behind putting Alonso at the top of the list. And he probably should be there. Scouts tell me that Alonso is the best hitting prospect in the Reds organization. But before I completely join the Alonso fan club, I want to know some things that we don't know yet. We know he was a great college hitter with the tools to become an outstanding major leaguer. I want to hear a little about his work ethic. Will he work on his weaknesses? Is he coachable? Is he truly commited to the game over and above the lifestyle that comes with it? Does he have a decent baseball IQ? Will he play hard every day? Can he handle the pressure of such high expections? Maybe he is top-notch in all these areas. I don't know yet.
When I hear people talk about the differences between Joey Votto and Homer Bailey, they talk about the things I just mentioned, and they reference the fact that one is an improving major leaguer and likely a future star who busts his butt every day to get better, and the other can't get out of Triple-A despite having the arm to be an all-star. I want to know where Alonso fits in those areas before I am ready to proclaim him the Reds first baseman for the next decade. We will start to find out next spring.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote