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Thread: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

  1. #16
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really think Soto is overhyped around here. He is coming off a season where he hit .340 (.326 in Dayton) with power. He doesn't strike out much and shows control of the zone at the plate. He just had a .218 isolated power at the age of 19 and it was still .174 in the midwest league.

    The hitters ahead of him?
    1. Mike Moustakas, .272/.334/.468 (.196 isoP)
    4. Ben Revere, .379/.433/.497 (.118 isoP)
    5. Brett Wallace, .327/.418/.490 (.173 isoP)
    6. Engel Beltre, .283/.308/.403 (.120 isoP)
    7. Andrew Lambo, .288/.346/.462 (.174 isoP)

    So only Moustakas showed more power than Soto did and only Beltre was younger than he was.
    Good post. Soto isn't overhyped on here at all. The kid is a legit stud prospect as evidenced by his stats. He's got everything you want in a young hitter - great bat speed, centers the ball well, and a projectable body that will fill out and add power.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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  3. #17
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I don't really think Soto is overhyped around here. He is coming off a season where he hit .340 (.326 in Dayton) with power. He doesn't strike out much and shows control of the zone at the plate. He just had a .218 isolated power at the age of 19 and it was still .174 in the midwest league.

    The hitters ahead of him?
    1. Mike Moustakas, .272/.334/.468 (.196 isoP)
    4. Ben Revere, .379/.433/.497 (.118 isoP)
    5. Brett Wallace, .327/.418/.490 (.173 isoP)
    6. Engel Beltre, .283/.308/.403 (.120 isoP)
    7. Andrew Lambo, .288/.346/.462 (.174 isoP)

    So only Moustakas showed more power than Soto did and only Beltre was younger than he was.

    I can't compare, I don't know all these guys. But Soto walked 11 times in 285 at bats at two levels this year. I believe this is a lower rate than Francisco. I'm not now comparing the two, only pointing out that Soto doesn't walk.

    I know Soto makes good contact and his strikeout rate is good. But he hit 11 homers this year. Someday, if he starts hitting the long ball more, we'll see if his strikeout rate stays this low.

    And, of course, defensive potential has to count. It sometimes gets lost in these evaluations. I've not seen Soto viewed as a plus defender at all and the stuff I've read has given him mixed reviews in that department.

    With all that, tenth place in the MWL seems like a pretty reasonable placement for him. I do think he's overhyped around here, but that doesn't mean I don't like him. I've always wished the Reds had more high contact, high BA type hitters with some power and he looks like he could be exactly that.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-23-2008 at 12:43 PM.

  4. #18
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I can't compare, I don't know all these guys. But Soto walked 11 times in 285 at bats at two levels this year. I believe this is a lower rate than Francisco. I'm not now comparing the two, only pointing out that Soto doesn't walk.

    I know Soto makes good contact and his strikeout rate is good. But he hit 11 homers this year. Someday, if he starts hitting the long ball more, we'll see if his strikeout rate stays this low.

    And, of course, defensive potential has to count. It sometimes gets lost in these evaluations. I've not seen Soto viewed as a plus defender at all and the stuff I've read has given him mixed reviews in that department.

    With all that, tenth place in the MWL seems like a pretty reasonable placement for him. I do think he's overhyped around here, but that doesn't mean I don't like him. I've always wished the Reds had more high contact, high BA type hitters with some power and he looks like he could be exactly that.
    He hit 11 HR in 285 at bats. Jay Bruce hit 16 HR in 444 at bats as a 19 year old. Adam Dunn hit 11 HR in 313 at bats as a 19 year old.

    Soto AB/HR = 25.9
    Bruce AB/HR = 27.75
    Dunn AB/HR = 28.45

    So at the same age he has shown more HR power than both Bruce or Dunn did and had a higher isolated power number than Dunn did (Bruce was at .225, he is ridiculous).

    Soto isn't a plus defender, but he has a strong arm and he can play 3B. He is not a below average defender there, so his defense doesn't hurt his overall prospects.

    He needs to walk more, but given that he isn't striking out much and from my own observations of watching him play, its not a result of him swinging out of the zone often its a result of him being aggressive at the plate with good contact skills. Yeah, I would like to see him walk more, but from the looks of everything he will walk when pitchers don't give him something good to hit.

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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Q: Tim from Proctorville, Ohio asks:
    Neftali Soto or Juan Francisco?

    A: Jim Callis: I'll give Francisco a slight edge because he has a better chance to stick at third base and has proven himself at a higher level.

    Wow, Francisco's stock is a lot higher than I thought.

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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
    No Devin Mesoraco? He seemed to hold his own as a teenager and is supposed to have a great arm.

    A: Jim Callis: He held his own with the bat but disappointed MWL observers with his defense. Every year in the league, there's a guy who people say surprises them that he went in the first round, and this year that guy was Mesoraco.

    ouch

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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
    Did Kyle Lotzkar not qualify?

    A: Jim Callis: He did not. He did have one of the better arms in the league and has the chance to develop three plus pitches, so he would have made the list if he had pitched enough innings. Probably in the middle of the 11-20 area.

  8. #22
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Q: Tim from Proctorville, Ohio asks:
    Neftali Soto or Juan Francisco?

    A: Jim Callis: I'll give Francisco a slight edge because he has a better chance to stick at third base and has proven himself at a higher level.

    Wow, Francisco's stock is a lot higher than I thought.
    I will say this, the Rockies and Reds talked about Matt Holliday. They were concrete on two names being involved. Francisco was one of those guys. There are a lot of things to love about his game. He can hit. He can hit for lots of power. He has a cannon for an arm. He just has no clue that he doesn't have to swing at every pitch thrown. I wouldn't come close to puting Francisco higher than Soto though.

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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Another Reds question:

    Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
    Did Zach Cozart or Brandon Waring get any consideration for the list?

    A: Jim Callis: They did, fit more in the 21-35 area. Cozart is a good defender who hit for some surprising power this year. Waring has nice power potential, though he has to cut down on his strikeouts and isn't the most agile third baseman.

  10. #24
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Q: Kyle from Middletown asks:
    No Devin Mesoraco? He seemed to hold his own as a teenager and is supposed to have a great arm.

    A: Jim Callis: He held his own with the bat but disappointed MWL observers with his defense. Every year in the league, there's a guy who people say surprises them that he went in the first round, and this year that guy was Mesoraco.

    ouch
    Just want to note, no catcher made this list. So Mesoraco still could have been the highest rated catcher in the league, but we don't really know.

  11. #25
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Q: Brandon from Charleston, WV asks:
    Did Kyle Lotzkar not qualify?

    A: Jim Callis: He did not. He did have one of the better arms in the league and has the chance to develop three plus pitches, so he would have made the list if he had pitched enough innings. Probably in the middle of the 11-20 area.
    That was my question. Nice to see Callis giving Lotzkar some love. I really like Lotzkar's arm... I would put him in the Cueto/Volquez class of prospects.
    Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 09-23-2008 at 01:35 PM.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  12. #26
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Q: Tim from Proctorville, Ohio asks:
    Neftali Soto or Juan Francisco?

    A: Jim Callis: I'll give Francisco a slight edge because he has a better chance to stick at third base and has proven himself at a higher level.

    Wow, Francisco's stock is a lot higher than I thought.
    There's no way in heck I would rate Francisco higher than Soto. Soto is a year and a half younger than Francisco and out OPS'd Francisco by 120 points. I know Francisco is at a higher level but Soto's year was more impressive to me. Soto is a fairly polished bat while Francisco still needs to make some huge adjustments.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #27
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    There's no way in heck I would rate Francisco higher than Soto. Soto is a year and a half younger than Francisco and out OPS'd Francisco by 120 points. I know Francisco is at a higher level but Soto's year was more impressive to me. Soto is a fairly polished bat while Francisco still needs to make some huge adjustments.
    But we know by now that BA judges prospects by tools and what scouts/managers tell them. Also these list are different than Top 10 and Top 100 list. We may see Juan Francisco rank ahead of Todd Frazier in the FSL but in the Reds Top 10, Frazier ranked ahead of Francisco.

  14. #28
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    But we know by now that BA judges prospects by tools and what scouts/managers tell them. Also these list are different than Top 10 and Top 100 list. We may see Juan Francisco rank ahead of Todd Frazier in the FSL but in the Reds Top 10, Frazier ranked ahead of Francisco.
    Yeah, thats true. Stuff like that happens all the time because different people do the lists. JJ Cooper has done the Reds top 30 the last few years, so his opinion on things will likely be different than those of Callis. And then the top 100 is done by 4 or 5 guys as a group, who all will have differing opinions.

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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I do think he's overhyped around here, but that doesn't mean I don't like him.
    Sums up my feelings on Soto exactly. Definitely a good prospect, but not quite sure I'd be lumping him in with Adam Dunn and Jay Bruce just yet.

  16. #30
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    Re: BA's Midwest League Top 20 later today

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Sums up my feelings on Soto exactly. Definitely a good prospect, but not quite sure I'd be lumping him in with Adam Dunn and Jay Bruce just yet.
    Through their age 19 seasons he isn't quite on par with Bruce but he is a better prospect at age 19 than Adam Dunn was. Lets remember, Jay Bruce after his age 19 season was a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball. Dunn on the other hand was not ranked in the top 100.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 09-23-2008 at 01:51 PM.


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