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Thread: 60 walks

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  1. #1
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    60 walks

    With two more walks tonight, Edwin Encarnacion has eclipsed the 60 walk barrier.



    This is an extremely good sign as Encarnacion has now achieved part two of the Cyclone Rule. The Cyclone Rule seeks to identify young hitters who possess a positive progression in plate discipline and IsoD skills, because for most hitters IsoP typically follows a similar path as IsoD. Hitters who show positive progression and development in IsoD and walk rate throughout their minor league career and early big league career also tend to show a propensity for developing into very useful big league hitters. The two part rule is as follows:

    1) Achieve a PA/BB ratio of ~12 (or better) throughout a player's minor league career.
    2) Achieve a PA/BB ratio of ~10 (or better) in a full big league season before a player's peak seasons (typically by age 26 or 27), or approximately by the time a player has 1,500 to 2,000 big league plate appearances. Per 600 plate appearances, or a full season, this is roughly 60 walks.

    Encarnacion achieved Part One with a PA/BB ratio of 11.85 during his minor league career, and now he has achieved Part Two with a PA/BB ratio of 9.33 during his age 25 season (60 walks in roughly 560 plate appearances).

    The next goal is for Encarnacion to, at minimum, maintain his current walk rate in future seasons, or ideally, further improve his walk rate in future seasons. He has shown in 2008 that he is capable of developing into a hitter with that type of discipline; now it's time for him to be that hitter with that type of discipline. By maintaining his walk rate, I like the chances for Encarnacion to post a .360-.370 on-base percentage with a slugging percentage on the good side of .500 as early as next season and to maintain or even improve upon those numbers throughout his peak years.

    Joey Votto is joining Encarnacion in graduating with the Cyclone Rule. Votto achieved a PA/BB ratio of 7.44 in the minor leagues, and he has posted a PA/BB ratio of roughly 10.11 during his first full big league season at age 24. Like Encarnacion, I like the chances of Votto to post a .360-.370 on-base percentage with a slugging percentage on the good side of .500 as early as next season and to maintain or even improve on those numbers throughout his peak years (he's nearly accomplished that already this season).

    Also, for those wondering, Jay Bruce did achieve part one with a career minor league PA/BB ratio of 11.94. Bruce's PA/BB ratio this season in Cincinnati is 13.44; now it's time to see Bruce's walk rate progress heading into 2009. An optimistic, but certainly plausible goal is for Bruce to achieve part two of the rule by reaching ~60 walks in the 2010 season (even better would be 2009, but we'll stay realistic here).

    And Chris Dickerson ... a career minor league PA/BB ratio of 7.87 meets part one. What I'm now really interested to see is if Dickerson can accomplish part two in a full season next season; he did toss up a PA/BB ratio of 7.18 in his 122 big league plate appearances this season, which is certainly a very encouraging sign.
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  2. #2
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Don't hitters that meet or exceed the Cyclone Rule end up getting shipped out of town, as a product of getting undervalued and underappreciated by the FO?

  3. #3
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by Highlifeman21 View Post
    Don't hitters that meet or exceed the Cyclone Rule end up getting shipped out of town, as a product of getting undervalued and underappreciated by the FO?
    No, sometimes its just part of life. Players and teams move on from eachother for all kinds of reasons and the Cyclone rule (even in its awesomeness) isn't one of them.

  4. #4
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    I love the Cyclone rule. I also love that the Reds have four hitters under the age of 26 who are accomplishing the Cyclone rule. Now if only Brandon Phillips could follow the rule...
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #5
    I hate the Cubs LoganBuck's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    But Marty said tonight that Edwin had to increase his abysmal BA with RISP.........

    Then they discussed Gonzalez and Keppinger in the second inning. It was pointed out that Keppinger will likely be the odd man out at shortstop, and that he wont be taking time from Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto. The point by omission, imo, was that they want Keppinger to play in EdE's spot.

    Funny a player makes the Cyclone Plateau and whamo! Like clockwork, here comes Marty and Jeff.
    The Sox traded Bullfrog the only player they've got for Shottenhoffen. Four-eyes Shottenhoffen a utility infielder. They've got a whole team of utility infielders.

  6. #6
    Member red-in-la's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by LoganBuck View Post
    But Marty said tonight that Edwin had to increase his abysmal BA with RISP.........

    Then they discussed Gonzalez and Keppinger in the second inning. It was pointed out that Keppinger will likely be the odd man out at shortstop, and that he wont be taking time from Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto. The point by omission, imo, was that they want Keppinger to play in EdE's spot.

    Funny a player makes the Cyclone Plateau and whamo! Like clockwork, here comes Marty and Jeff.
    If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....
    "Is there a problem officers?"

  7. #7
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....
    Why? Keppinger is OPSing .662 and plays poor defense at shortstop. He should be the odd man out. I think he's a better hitter than what he's showing right now but he's not an everyday player because of his poor defense.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  8. #8
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Why? Keppinger is OPSing .662 and plays poor defense at shortstop. He should be the odd man out. I think he's a better hitter than what he's showing right now but he's not an everyday player because of his poor defense.
    Maybe I am missing Red-in-LA but I think his point was there is no way Keppinger should be an odd man out because he shouldn't even be in the conversation and the fact that Marty thinks he is even in the conversation is a silly notion.

  9. #9
    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....
    Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.

    Keppinger is a valuable player when used in spots and I hope he sticks around, but to say he is a starting whatever is pretty much a reach.
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  10. #10
    15 game winner Danny Serafini's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.
    That sounds eerily similar to the old argument about how Dunn hit "empty" homers. It's not Keppinger's fault if no one gets on base for him to knock in, or the hitters behind him can't drive him home. The only at bat he has any control over is his own.

  11. #11
    THAT'S A FACT JACK!! GAC's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by WVRedsFan View Post
    Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.
    How is that Kepinger's fault? He gets a hit when they mean nothing?? And if a guy goes 3 fer 4 and it doesn't lead to runs, then the problem is elsewhere IMO.
    Last edited by GAC; 09-25-2008 at 08:34 AM.
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  12. #12
    Knowledge Is Good Big Klu's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    How is that Kepinger's fault?
    He should have hit a home run.
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  13. #13
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....
    I like Kepp well enough as a utility/bench guy but he really doesn't fit the profile that I want to see at 3rd base every day.

    If the Reds trade EdE I expect a good return. If the Reds trade Keppinger it's most likely as filler on a deal and I wouldn't be upset about it at all.

    Rem

  14. #14
    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    Quote Originally Posted by red-in-la View Post
    If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....
    Keppinger can provide some nice value as a backup utility infielder who gets spot starts strictly against lefty pitching, but his worth doesn't go much beyond that. Right handed pitching shuts him down so the Reds really need to limit his PAs against righties.

    And that doesn't even touch on the fact that he is a below average defender at shortstop and probably isn't much better than average, if even that, at second base and third base.
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  15. #15
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 60 walks

    I've got a question on the main topic Cyclone. What if anything does this do to quell the myth a bit that hitters don't improve their plate discipline much (if at all) over the years?
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