60 walks

[Cyclone792]

With two more walks tonight, Edwin Encarnacion has eclipsed the 60 walk barrier.



This is an extremely good sign as Encarnacion has now achieved part two of the Cyclone Rule. The Cyclone Rule seeks to identify young hitters who possess a positive progression in plate discipline and IsoD skills, because for most hitters IsoP typically follows a similar path as IsoD. Hitters who show positive progression and development in IsoD and walk rate throughout their minor league career and early big league career also tend to show a propensity for developing into very useful big league hitters. The two part rule is as follows:

1) Achieve a PA/BB ratio of ~12 (or better) throughout a player's minor league career.
2) Achieve a PA/BB ratio of ~10 (or better) in a full big league season before a player's peak seasons (typically by age 26 or 27), or approximately by the time a player has 1,500 to 2,000 big league plate appearances. Per 600 plate appearances, or a full season, this is roughly 60 walks.

Encarnacion achieved Part One with a PA/BB ratio of 11.85 during his minor league career, and now he has achieved Part Two with a PA/BB ratio of 9.33 during his age 25 season (60 walks in roughly 560 plate appearances).

The next goal is for Encarnacion to, at minimum, maintain his current walk rate in future seasons, or ideally, further improve his walk rate in future seasons. He has shown in 2008 that he is capable of developing into a hitter with that type of discipline; now it's time for him to be that hitter with that type of discipline. By maintaining his walk rate, I like the chances for Encarnacion to post a .360-.370 on-base percentage with a slugging percentage on the good side of .500 as early as next season and to maintain or even improve upon those numbers throughout his peak years.

Joey Votto is joining Encarnacion in graduating with the Cyclone Rule. Votto achieved a PA/BB ratio of 7.44 in the minor leagues, and he has posted a PA/BB ratio of roughly 10.11 during his first full big league season at age 24. Like Encarnacion, I like the chances of Votto to post a .360-.370 on-base percentage with a slugging percentage on the good side of .500 as early as next season and to maintain or even improve on those numbers throughout his peak years (he's nearly accomplished that already this season).

Also, for those wondering, Jay Bruce did achieve part one with a career minor league PA/BB ratio of 11.94. Bruce's PA/BB ratio this season in Cincinnati is 13.44; now it's time to see Bruce's walk rate progress heading into 2009. An optimistic, but certainly plausible goal is for Bruce to achieve part two of the rule by reaching ~60 walks in the 2010 season (even better would be 2009, but we'll stay realistic here).

And Chris Dickerson ... a career minor league PA/BB ratio of 7.87 meets part one. What I'm now really interested to see is if Dickerson can accomplish part two in a full season next season; he did toss up a PA/BB ratio of 7.18 in his 122 big league plate appearances this season, which is certainly a very encouraging sign.

[Highlifeman21]

Don't hitters that meet or exceed the Cyclone Rule end up getting shipped out of town, as a product of getting undervalued and underappreciated by the FO?

[dougdirt]

Don't hitters that meet or exceed the Cyclone Rule end up getting shipped out of town, as a product of getting undervalued and underappreciated by the FO?

No, sometimes its just part of life. Players and teams move on from eachother for all kinds of reasons and the Cyclone rule (even in its awesomeness) isn't one of them.

[OnBaseMachine]

I love the Cyclone rule. I also love that the Reds have four hitters under the age of 26 who are accomplishing the Cyclone rule. Now if only Brandon Phillips could follow the rule...

[LoganBuck]

But Marty said tonight that Edwin had to increase his abysmal BA with RISP.........

Then they discussed Gonzalez and Keppinger in the second inning. It was pointed out that Keppinger will likely be the odd man out at shortstop, and that he wont be taking time from Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto. The point by omission, imo, was that they want Keppinger to play in EdE's spot.

Funny a player makes the Cyclone Plateau and whamo! Like clockwork, here comes Marty and Jeff.

[red-in-la]

But Marty said tonight that Edwin had to increase his abysmal BA with RISP.........

Then they discussed Gonzalez and Keppinger in the second inning. It was pointed out that Keppinger will likely be the odd man out at shortstop, and that he wont be taking time from Brandon Phillips or Joey Votto. The point by omission, imo, was that they want Keppinger to play in EdE's spot.

Funny a player makes the Cyclone Plateau and whamo! Like clockwork, here comes Marty and Jeff.

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

[OnBaseMachine]

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

Why? Keppinger is OPSing .662 and plays poor defense at shortstop. He should be the odd man out. I think he's a better hitter than what he's showing right now but he's not an everyday player because of his poor defense.

[dougdirt]

Why? Keppinger is OPSing .662 and plays poor defense at shortstop. He should be the odd man out. I think he's a better hitter than what he's showing right now but he's not an everyday player because of his poor defense.

Maybe I am missing Red-in-LA but I think his point was there is no way Keppinger should be an odd man out because he shouldn't even be in the conversation and the fact that Marty thinks he is even in the conversation is a silly notion.

[WVRedsFan]

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.

Keppinger is a valuable player when used in spots and I hope he sticks around, but to say he is a starting whatever is pretty much a reach.

[remdog]

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

I like Kepp well enough as a utility/bench guy but he really doesn't fit the profile that I want to see at 3rd base every day.

If the Reds trade EdE I expect a good return. If the Reds trade Keppinger it's most likely as filler on a deal and I wouldn't be upset about it at all.

Rem

[Cyclone792]

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

Keppinger can provide some nice value as a backup utility infielder who gets spot starts strictly against lefty pitching, but his worth doesn't go much beyond that. Right handed pitching shuts him down so the Reds really need to limit his PAs against righties.

And that doesn't even touch on the fact that he is a below average defender at shortstop and probably isn't much better than average, if even that, at second base and third base.

[Mario-Rijo]

I've got a question on the main topic Cyclone. What if anything does this do to quell the myth a bit that hitters don't improve their plate discipline much (if at all) over the years?

[Cyclone792]

I've got a question on the main topic Cyclone. What if anything does this do to quell the myth a bit that hitters don't improve their plate discipline much (if at all) over the years?

Short answer: it's a myth for good, young hitters who show decent plate discipline skills at an early age (minor league career and early big league career). But it's mostly accurate for hitters who were hacks at an early age (minor league career and early big league career).

Now the long answer ...

The average hitter will possess his greatest plate discipline skills in his early to mid 30s while all his other skills decline. So if one went strictly by that notion, then the myth appears to be nothing more than a myth. However, it is also important to remember that most poor hitters - most of whom also have lousy plate discipline - fall out of the major leagues prior to reaching their early to mid 30s so those hitters are no longer applicable.

Now what I've typically found is that good, young hitters who show a propensity at an early age for plate discipline can in fact improve their plate discipline as they progress into the majors up into their peak years and beyond (up to early to mid 30s).

The cutoff I've noticed tends to be around a 12 PA/BB ratio in the minors, hence rule one. This isn't a hard cutoff by any means, but it's around that number where we tend to see guys go one way or the other. If a hitter's PA/BB ratio is on the good side of 12 PA/BB, then his chances are pretty good to see some further plate discipline improvement. If he's sitting down around 16 PA/BB, for example, then his chances are pretty lousy to see any plate discipline improvement and the vast majority of those hitters end up being lifelong hacks.

Rule two expands on this by showing us how a hitter progresses in his first three or four big league seasons. If you have a hitter who posted a 12 PA/BB ratio in the minors, you want to see improvement to a 10 PA/BB ratio within 1,500 to 2,000 PAs (prior to peak years) in the majors. If you have a hitter who posted excellent PA/BB ratios in the minors, such as a Votto or a Dickerson, you want to see his big league PA/BB ratio fall no worse than 10 PA/BB within 1,500 to 2,000 PAs in the majors.

What this means it that a guy such as Encarnacion - who achieved rule one - has always been a pretty decent bet to improve his big league plate discipline. And in 2008, that bet has turned up some winnings as he's now achieved rule two. Moving forward, that Encarnacion bet is likely to turn up even more winnings. He could very well be a guy who could reach 70+ walks in his peak years, and then we'd be talking about some serious on-base percentage.

It also means guys such as Brandon Phillips and Wily Mo Pena, for example, have been lousy bets to improve their big league plate discipline. They're both hacks, and they're both likely to be hacks throughout the duration of their respective careers. You'll be sniffing long and hard to turn up some winnings on those types of hitters.

This is important because plate discipline - and IsoD - can provide us with a lot of valuable information about what type of power a hitter may develop. When IsoD and plate discipline improves, slugging and IsoP improves. If IsoD remains flat and poor, then slugging has a very low cap. We don't see hitters post .320 on-base percentages mixed with .520 slugging percentages. Those hitters typically do not exist, and if one does pop up, he's a rare breed.

[Danny Serafini]

Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.

That sounds eerily similar to the old argument about how Dunn hit "empty" homers. It's not Keppinger's fault if no one gets on base for him to knock in, or the hitters behind him can't drive him home. The only at bat he has any control over is his own.

[Mario-Rijo]

I see very interesting stuff. Now does that #1 rule apply even at the lower levels of the minors and to what degree? The reason I ask is because we have several prospects who are at lower levels who have some issues with plate discipline. Most of our power prospects in fact are OBP via the BB challenged. What odds do you give these guys of even making it to the show let alone being good once they arrive.

BB/PA
Those who stink at it:
Francisco 48/1329
Soto 22/471
Valaika 89/1449


Those who don't:
Waring 64/799
Frazier 76/751
Dorn 126/1154

JMO but the 4 (of our best 6 hitters) that have a legit shot at the bigs and being decent or better bats when they get here are Soto, Valaika, Frazier & Dorn. While the other 2 will be lucky to hit AA pitching.

Also at what point do you consider K/PA to be a hinderance despite their BB/PA? I mean what's not an acceptable K/PA in the minors and majors?