60 walks

[Sea Ray]

To the point of the walks, I'm frankly shocked how little play Hanigan has been getting for being the starter next year. Catchers' offensive game tend to mature notoriously late, so his now two year track record of success is a very good sign, he seems to be fundamentally sound defensively behind the dish and has thrown out 30%+ of attempted base-stealers. He's no all-star, but it's going to be extremely expensive to improve on that for next year from outside the org.

Funny you should ask. In this morning's paper Dusty says that Hanigan will be considered for the #1 job next year:

http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...809250405/1071

[Sea Ray]

As the roster stands right now I think Keppinger should be allowed to compete for the starting SS job next Spring along with AGon, Janish and whoever else is worthy. May the most productive guy win.

[OnBaseMachine]

As the roster stands right now I think Keppinger should be allowed to compete for the starting SS job next Spring along with AGon, Janish and whoever else is worthy. May the most productive guy win.

With his defense, unless Keppinger starts hitting like Hanley Ramirez then he shouldn't even sniff shortstop.

[mth123]

As the roster stands right now I think Keppinger should be allowed to compete for the starting SS job next Spring along with AGon, Janish and whoever else is worthy. May the most productive guy win.

I hope none of those guys get the job and no more than 1 on the team.

[*BaseClogger*]

With his defense, unless Keppinger starts hitting like Hanley Ramirez then he shouldn't even sniff shortstop.

I realize defense is important, but it's also about overall value. If Keppinger hits the same way he did in April (.312/.361/.431), AGon regresses to halfway between his 2007 numbers and his career average (.260/.310/.434), and Janish bats halfway between his 2008 numbers and his career minor league numbers (.225/.315/.293) will their defense be enough to close the gap in value?

Over 600 PA as a starter using above project:
Keppinger: 93 RC
AGon: 81 RC
Janish: 55 RC

Is AGon's defense 12 runs better than Kepp's? Is Janish's defense 38 runs better? I feel the numbers I used above look reasonable as projections for each players output in 2009, but it's up for debate. My main point isn't necessarily that Kepp should start at SS in 2009, or that AGon's defense isn't 12 runs better than Kepp's. Rather, I believe it's important to remember that if any of these SS are much better offensively than their defensive counterparts then no amount of defense can make up for it. It is important to be open minded when choosing which player should start at a position up for grabs amongst a bunch of players who, admittedly should not be starters in MLB (but I'm doing this exercise based on the assumption no one is brought in), and not base it on predetermined notions...

[*BaseClogger*]

I hope none of those guys get the job and no more than 1 on the team.

I would be happy with Kepp and Janish as the backup infielders as long as a LH OF with some pop was brought in to be the other backup OF with Freel...

[Cyclone792]

I hope none of those guys get the job and no more than 1 on the team.

Yup, this really gets at the core problem of this team.

The Reds aren't awful because their top talent stinks. Rather, the Reds are awful because they have far too many poor and below average players. It's time they start replacing those players with guys who are closer to average big leaguers who will give the squad a bit more production.

[Ltlabner]

All this work is nice an all, Cyclone.

But hasn't it already been proven that only girls walk?

[Mario-Rijo]

I realize defense is important, but it's also about overall value. If Keppinger hits the same way he did in April (.312/.361/.431), AGon regresses to halfway between his 2007 numbers and his career average (.260/.310/.434), and Janish bats halfway between his 2008 numbers and his career minor league numbers (.225/.315/.293) will their defense be enough to close the gap in value?

Over 600 PA as a starter using above project:
Keppinger: 93 RC
AGon: 81 RC
Janish: 55 RC

Is AGon's defense 12 runs better than Kepp's? Is Janish's defense 38 runs better? I feel the numbers I used above look reasonable as projections for each players output in 2009, but it's up for debate. My main point isn't necessarily that Kepp should start at SS in 2009, or that AGon's defense isn't 12 runs better than Kepp's. Rather, I believe it's important to remember that if any of these SS are much better offensively than their defensive counterparts then no amount of defense can make up for it. It is important to be open minded when choosing which player should start at a position up for grabs amongst a bunch of players who, admittedly should not be starters in MLB (but I'm doing this exercise based on the assumption no one is brought in), and not base it on predetermined notions...

Geez tough thing to equate stats being the way they are. That said yes I would take Gonzo over Kepp as a starter if that's what I had to choose from. I would also play Janish ahead of Kepp assuming we get a guy like Holliday in LF and Dickerson or someone equal or better was the starter in CF. Janish only has a chance to be passable as long as there is no other sub average offensive players on the field at the same time as he.

No amount of offense can make up for subpar pitching (within a season), we've seen that for years now. But that is what you would have with defensive issues all through the left side of the defense if Kepp started next to EE.

[Cyclone792]

Early 2009 returns, remember the goal is 10 PA/BB or better:

• Votto: 8.67 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 9.98 PA/BB in 2008
• Phillips: 4.17 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 15.62 PA/BB in 2008
• Encarnacion: 3.13 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 9.54 PA/BB in 2008
• Dickerson: 3.2 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 7.18 PA/BB in 2008
• Bruce: 25 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 13.70 PA/BB in 2009

All the walk rates will level off with a greater sample size, but look for positive baby steps early on. Encarnacion and Dickerson have shown a beautiful batting eye the first six games of the season, and they're piling up the walks.

Brandon Phillips is a key here. I've long stated that if he could hit that magical 60+ walk barrier, he'd be a monster. Both the OBP and SLG would soar, and he'd be up close to Chase Utley range. If he takes 60+ walks this season, he'd deserve to hit cleanup.

Also encouraging: the Reds lead the NL in walk rate thus far. If a highly unexpected spike in walk rate occurs in this lineup, the offensive has the potential to exceed all expectations. The walks have to show up for this to happen though.

Still, it's early ... we can track it throughout the season.

[WMR]

If anybody is silly enough to think that Keppinger, late of the 3-4 night in a 2-1 win, is going to be the odd man out, they need to relook at the situation....geez....

Looks like he was the odd man out after all.

[pahster]

Early 2009 returns, remember the goal is 10 PA/BB or better:

• Votto: 8.67 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 9.98 PA/BB in 2008
• Phillips: 4.17 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 15.62 PA/BB in 2008
• Encarnacion: 3.13 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 9.54 PA/BB in 2008
• Dickerson: 3.2 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 7.18 PA/BB in 2008
• Bruce: 25 PA/BB in 2009 vs. 13.70 PA/BB in 2009

Not that I think it'll continue, but Taveras has done pretty well with a 9.5 PA/BB rate in 2009 vs. 14.94 in 2008.

[OnBaseMachine]

I love this thread, Cyclone.

I don't think Bruce will reach the 60 walk threshold this season. He's still very young and sometimes too anxious at the plate. There is no doubt in my mind he'll be a 70-80 walk guy in a couple years, but I don't expect that right now. He's admitted that he needs to draw more walks and it's something he's working on. I think 45 walks from Bruce this year is a reasonable number to expect. You'll start to see his walk rate gradually increase as he matures as a hitter, IMO.

I love what Dickerson, Encarnacion, and Votto are doing, but Phillips has been the biggest surprise. He's already got six walks in 25 plate appearances. He's most likely not going to continue walking at this pace, but like you said, if he can walk 60 times a season he'll be an elite second baseman.

[Johnny Footstool]

Encarnacion's jump in walk rate might be a function of hitting 6th. The Reds 7-8 hitters are not exactly fearsome.

[HumnHilghtFreel]

Encarnacion's jump in walk rate might be a function of hitting 6th. The Reds 7-8 hitters are not exactly fearsome.

I agree somewhat. It's obvious that he's taking a more patient approach, he's even said so IIRC. But he's most likely not getting much to hit as long as Hernandez and AGon are struggling behind him.