60 walks

[vaticanplum]

It also means guys such as Brandon Phillips and Wily Mo Pena, for example, have been lousy bets to improve their big league plate discipline. They're both hacks, and they're both likely to be hacks throughout the duration of their respective careers. You'll be sniffing long and hard to turn up some winnings on those types of hitters.

Has Phillips's walk rate improved at all throughout his major league career? My eyes tell me that he has just a little more discipline than he used to, but my eyesight is pretty poor sometimes.

I would never expect him to have a high walk rate, but I just wonder if he's improved at all.

[Cyclone792]

I see very interesting stuff. Now does that #1 rule apply even at the lower levels of the minors and to what degree? The reason I ask is because we have several prospects who are at lower levels who have some issues with plate discipline. Most of our power prospects in fact are OBP via the BB challenged. What odds do you give these guys of even making it to the show let alone being good once they arrive.

BB/PA
Those who stink at it:
Francisco 48/1329
Soto 22/471
Valaika 89/1449


Those who don't:
Waring 64/799
Frazier 76/751
Dorn 126/1154

JMO but the 4 (of our best 6 hitters) that have a legit shot at the bigs and being decent or better bats when they get here are Soto, Valaika, Frazier & Dorn. While the other 2 will be lucky to hit AA pitching.

Also at what point do you consider K/PA to be a hinderance despite their BB/PA? I mean what's not an acceptable K/PA in the minors and majors?

It applies throughout all levels, but understand that it also evolves as a prospect progresses. As prospects advance throughout the system we can see their plate discipline progress, plateau, and regress, and we can gain a bigger understanding the probability that they will contribute at the big league level. Ideally I want to see that 12 PA/BB ratio throughout all levels, but a secondary angle is also to look at the progression once a player reaches the upper minors. Chris Valaika, for example, is most definitely lagging behind. He also showed some of his best plate discipline in Chattanooga this season - 14.89 PA/BB - albeit still lagging behind the cutoff. I'm sure it's likely he'll be playing much of 2009 in the minor leagues, and one vital area to watch for is if he can further improve his plate discipline.

If I had to predict Valaika's success right now, then I'd say his success in the big leagues likely depends entirely on if he's able to duplicate his .300 batting average because so far he hasn't shown much ability to produce a solid IsoD.

Frazier's the class of that group. Dorn is very solid too.

Soto's young enough that I want to see more PAs out of him, but his walk rates are a bit concerning. He may be a guy who develops regardless of a walk rate, though it's still important to note that a low walk rate will place a lower cap on how great he can become.

Francisco is clearly a major problem.

Waring is borderline, and there's some risks he may take the Syzmanski route. Our hope is that he boosts up the walk rate next year so his chances of avoiding the Syzmanski route can grow.

With strikeouts, the higher the IsoD and the better the walk rate, the less I'm concerned about strikeouts. Strikeouts likely pose a bigger problem for a borderline guy such as Waring rather than high walk rate guys such as Votto and Dickerson.

[Cyclone792]

Has Phillips's walk rate improved at all throughout his major league career? My eyes tell me that he has just a little more discipline than he used to, but my eyesight is pretty poor sometimes.

I would never expect him to have a high walk rate, but I just wonder if he's improved at all.

2006 (age 25): 16.77 PA/BB
2007 (age 26): 21.27 PA/BB
2008 (age 27): 15.62 PA/BB

Some slight improvement, but still pretty poor despite now being 27-years-old. His career minor league walk rate was a tad higher than 13 PA/BB. He missed the minor league cutoff, and he looks like he's not going to be able to hop the plate discipline fence in the big leagues.

It's certainly possible that 2007 could have been Phillips' best single season, and an OBP/SLG combo of .325/.450 may be all we'll ever get out of Phillips for most years. It helps the Reds now, but it can become a quick problem when his defense heads south due to age and his salary explodes.

[Cyclone792]

Oh, one more guy ... Ryan Hanigan ...

8.62 PA/BB in 2,111 minor league PAs
9.80 PA/BB in 98 big league PAs (small sample size, but an early good sign beats an early bad sign)

[REDREAD]

Keppinger can provide some nice value as a backup utility infielder who gets spot starts strictly against lefty pitching, but his worth doesn't go much beyond that. Right handed pitching shuts him down so the Reds really need to limit his PAs against righties.
.

Question for the board. Do you cut Freel this winter and give Keppinger his roster spot, or do you keep Freel and hope he gets healthy.

Let's assume Cast will eat Freel's contract if asked. Let's also assume trading Freel is not an option.

[RedsManRick]

Question for the board. Do you cut Freel this winter and give Keppinger his roster spot, or do you keep Freel and hope he gets healthy.

Let's assume Cast will eat Freel's contract if asked. Let's also assume trading Freel is not an option.

I'm not clear on why keeping both isn't an option. The trick is getting away from this supposed need of having a veteran catcher -- particularly one who is a liability both offensively and defensively. Using Castillo as catcher #2 gives us the flexibility we'd need.

Freel, Castillo, Rosales, Keppinger, Richar seems to cover us across the board. I would swap out Richar if a platoon ends up making the most sense in CF or LF.

To the point of the walks, I'm frankly shocked how little play Hanigan has been getting for being the starter next year. Catchers' offensive game tend to mature notoriously late, so his now two year track record of success is a very good sign, he seems to be fundamentally sound defensively behind the dish and has thrown out 30%+ of attempted base-stealers. He's no all-star, but it's going to be extremely expensive to improve on that for next year from outside the org.

[BRM]

I'm not clear on why keeping both isn't an option. The trick is getting away from this supposed need of having a veteran catcher -- particularly one who is a liability both offensively and defensively. Using Castillo as catcher #2 gives us the flexibility we'd need.

Freel, Castillo, Rosales, Keppinger, Richar seems to cover us across the board. I would swap out Richar if a platoon ends up making the most sense in CF or LF.

I think Hairston will be there instead of Richar or Rosales.

[RedsManRick]

I think Hairston will be there instead of Richar or Rosales.

Hairston is a FA. I have no idea if the Reds will resign him (I agree that they'll try), but I'd much rather have Richar or Rosales at $300K than Hairston at something like $2M. Utility guys are like middle relievers. Enjoy the good seasons you get from them, but unless their fundamentals are off the charts, let somebody else take the risk they repeat their success. It's a risk best taken by somebody else.

[BRM]

Hairston is a FA. I have no idea if the Reds will resign him (I agree that they'll try), but I'd much rather have Richar or Rosales at $300K than Hairston at something like $2M. Utility guys are like middle relievers. Enjoy the good seasons you get from them, but unless their fundamentals are off the charts, let somebody else take the risk they repeat their success. It's a risk best taken by somebody else.

I agree with you for the most part, RMR. I question whether Walt and Dusty see Hairston as a utility guy or as a starting centerfielder, possibly in a platoon role. If they see Hairston as the answer to the CF question for '09, they'll sign him.

[Mario-Rijo]

I agree with you for the most part, RMR. I question whether Walt and Dusty see Hairston as a utility guy or as a starting centerfielder, possibly in a platoon role. If they see Hairston as the answer to the CF question for '09, they'll sign him.

Dickerson's recent injury certainly makes this more likely to happen. I would like to see Dickerson given the job FT until such a time he proves he cannot handle it. Unless of course they have designs on acquiring a starter there but I can't see it. Hairston I like as a UT guy but my gut says he will be searching around for a bit bigger opportunity (playing time wise), but again the Dickerson injury may cause him to think this is his best opportunity.

[Mario-Rijo]

I'm not clear on why keeping both isn't an option. The trick is getting away from this supposed need of having a veteran catcher -- particularly one who is a liability both offensively and defensively. Using Castillo as catcher #2 gives us the flexibility we'd need.

Freel, Castillo, Rosales, Keppinger, Richar seems to cover us across the board. I would swap out Richar if a platoon ends up making the most sense in CF or LF.

To the point of the walks, I'm frankly shocked how little play Hanigan has been getting for being the starter next year. Catchers' offensive game tend to mature notoriously late, so his now two year track record of success is a very good sign, he seems to be fundamentally sound defensively behind the dish and has thrown out 30%+ of attempted base-stealers. He's no all-star, but it's going to be extremely expensive to improve on that for next year from outside the org.

I second the Hanigan as at minimum the larger half of a platoon situation. He seems to have enough in every area of his game to be a nice cheap solid solution for at least 3 years.

[Mario-Rijo]

2006 (age 25): 16.77 PA/BB
2007 (age 26): 21.27 PA/BB
2008 (age 27): 15.62 PA/BB

Some slight improvement, but still pretty poor despite now being 27-years-old. His career minor league walk rate was a tad higher than 13 PA/BB. He missed the minor league cutoff, and he looks like he's not going to be able to hop the plate discipline fence in the big leagues.

It's certainly possible that 2007 could have been Phillips' best single season, and an OBP/SLG combo of .325/.450 may be all we'll ever get out of Phillips for most years. It helps the Reds now, but it can become a quick problem when his defense heads south due to age and his salary explodes.

As much as the opposition gets him out on that low and away breaking pitch he could probably get close to that plateau by just laying off of anything low and away for the most part. Everything else he pretty much crushes.

[GAC]

Keppinger is the hero of the hit crowd, but what does 3-4 mean if it doesn't lead to a run or two. He scored a run, and I'm thankful for that, but more often than not, Kepp gets hits when they mean nothing. Yep, go 3-4 and not one run means nothing. Just sayin'.

How is that Kepinger's fault? He gets a hit when they mean nothing?? And if a guy goes 3 fer 4 and it doesn't lead to runs, then the problem is elsewhere IMO.

[Big Klu]

How is that Kepinger's fault?

He should have hit a home run.

[Tony Cloninger]

Speaking of fault How about EE coming up with runners on base last night and having a good pitch to hit and barely able to hit farther than the pitcher and then swinging at the 1st pitch the 2nd time with runners on base and popping it up.

I like EE.....and expect he will be better next year....but he still frustrates me as a hitter when he looks no better than CP in those 2 AB's and many others like those two from last night.