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Thread: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

  1. #1
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    The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    I'm stoked about next season!

    I like what I see. How do other people feel?
    Who's on first?

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    I am too. But, I don't want to get my hopes up right now. I'm very encouraged by our young core of players, but I want to see what the FO does in the off season. I'm cautiously optimistic.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    My optimism is all dependant on the addition of a RH bat to either play leftfield or 1B/3B and move EE or Joey Votto to left that can get 600+ AB's, put up 20+ HR, drive in 85-90 RBI and perform in the clutch. Casey Blake wouls be my 1st choice, play him at 1B and move Votto to LF. If EE does not have a breakout year in 2009, Blake can play 3B and clear 1B for Yonder Alonzo in 2010.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    No reason to be more optimistic than going into this season - unfortunately the improvement in Pitching (Volquez and the potential in Cueto) has been balanced by the lack of Power in the OF and our offense overall.

    Votto is everything we thought he would be, and Bruce has thus far been a replacement for KGJ in RF, circa 2008. I think it will be a stretch for Bruce to put up KGJ circa 2007 numbers in 2009.
    Outside of that, BP, Keppinger, and EE have all regressed - with EE putting up more power, but still not up to 2006 numbers. BP was to be expected - although not by many fans - but Kepp proved to be a disappointment, along with Hopper/Freel and all the other "scrappy" guys that helps liken folks back to Peter Rose and give them false optimism. The same optimism they are likely now putting in Dickerson for the CF job for 2009.

    Unless we bring in a BIG FA LF Power Bat, and make a couple other SOLID moves to improve our bench/bullpen guys, it's just another mirage.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    1. Biggest asumption is that Harang will not repeat 2008...I think he will be better than 2008, but not quite what he was in 2006. Somewhere around 4.00 era...BA against lowers back to 250ish

    2. Can Arroyo keep it up...he has been so up and down as a Red...you just don't know what you'll get. I don't know if we'll get 2nd half Bronson, or 1st half Bronson..

    3. The 5th starters for the Reds have to be better next year.
    Fogg 2-7 7.58 Era
    Bailey 0-6 7.93 Era
    Belisle 1-4 7.28 Era
    Thompson 0-2 6.91 Era

    I'd think Owings, Maloney, Ramirez, Bailey, Thompson, etc..would be huge improvement as well as give us depth if one of the top 4 were to go down for a few starts.

    4. Dickerson/Freel platoon in CF can't be any worse offensively than the 300+ PA Patterson received as a Red. Defensively won't be a huge downgrade.

    5. Overall defense has to be better. No more Griffey/Dunn...huge upgrades. SS has to be improved if Gonzo gives you any time next year. Votto should be improved. Hanigan is an improvement over Valentin/Ross/Bako.

    The 2 biggest potential downgrades are Dunn in LF and Affeldt/Weathers in the BP. The BP could be easier to maintain. Dunn is a huge whole...but there is some money freed up to address that concern.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    I'm cautiously optimistic.

    Pitching - I expect to see a "regression" of Volquez to what he should actually be doing. He got lucky a bit this year and I doubt that luck will carry on to next season. That being said, even a regressed Volquez will be very solid. An ERA between of 4 or lower and I'll be happy with the guy. Cueto is a bit of the opposite in that he's been a bit unlucky. Like Volques, ERA of 4 and lower and it should be a successful year. I expect no real change out of Arroyo, and considering he's solid with what he does now, I'm dandy keeping him around. Harang needs a bounceback year, unfortunately, I don't see it happening. I'm worried the injury he has is a potentially career altering one. If he can come back to a reasonable production (again, ERA of 4) I'll be ecstatic. As for a fifth starter, I imagine it'll be a revolving door but really, how many teams really have solid 5th starters.

    Bullpen - 'pen is looking ok. I'm not a big Cordero fan and think his salary could be better spent elsewhere. But the other young guys are fine. Weathers I could take or leave. I think the pen will turn out fine.

    Offense - Votto will be a solid if unspectacular bat and EE will be much of the same. Bruce will continue to develop and will probably be another solid bat. Dickerson, again, solid as I doubt he'll be able to keep up his current pace, and now the injury demon rears its ugly head on him. SS needs fixing as does LF/CF (whichever Dickerson isn't playing). Brandon Phillips was disapointing this year and needs to bat lower in the lineup, bar none. It won't happen and Dusty will continue to misuse him and probably further hamper any offensive production. It may be a good time to trade him. Catcher is a usualy catcher thing, I guess Hanigan has looked allright.

    Overall, if this team finishes .500 it should be considered a successful year.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    There's a reason they call them "Assumptions"; they should also call them "Broken Records"

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    1. Biggest asumption is that Harang will not repeat 2008...I think he will be better than 2008, but not quite what he was in 2006. Somewhere around 4.00 era...BA against lowers back to 250ish
    The biggest assumption for 2008 was that NONE of the pitchers from 2007 would regress. BIG ASSUMPTION. Not based in reality. Now, we're going to assume the same thing for 2009.

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    2. Can Arroyo keep it up...he has been so up and down as a Red...you just don't know what you'll get. I don't know if we'll get 2nd half Bronson, or 1st half Bronson..
    Arroyo looks to be about the same guy as 2007, when it all comes down to it. Outside of a couple games where he was kept in there when he should have been pulled - courtesty of DUHsty Baker - his ERA would be inline as well IMO.

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    3. The 5th starters for the Reds have to be better next year.
    Fogg 2-7 7.58 Era
    Bailey 0-6 7.93 Era
    Belisle 1-4 7.28 Era
    Thompson 0-2 6.91 Era

    I'd think Owings, Maloney, Ramirez, Bailey, Thompson, etc..would be huge improvement as well as give us depth if one of the top 4 were to go down for a few starts.
    Gee - where have I heard that before?!?! OH YEAH, going into 2008!! We were VERY LUCKY that Volquez and Cueto were able to shine out of the muddled mess we called "SP's not named Harang and Arroyo" going into 2008, or we'd REALLY be in trouble. I think Owings, Maloney, Ramirez, Bailey, Thompson, circa 2009 is a huge step down from Bailey, Maloney, Fogg, Belisle, Affeldt, circa 2008. Again, we'll be HOPING that it's better, but definitely no guarantees.

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    4. Dickerson/Freel platoon in CF can't be any worse offensively than the 300+ PA Patterson received as a Red. Defensively won't be a huge downgrade.
    Hmmm. Deja Vu all over again?!?! Patterson/Freel/Hopper is now going to be Dickerson/Freel/???. So, we're hoping that Dickerson's 100 AB's that were wildly different than his 6 years in the minors translates to 400/500 AB's in 2009. Mmmmkay...

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    5. Overall defense has to be better. No more Griffey/Dunn...huge upgrades. SS has to be improved if Gonzo gives you any time next year. Votto should be improved. Hanigan is an improvement over Valentin/Ross/Bako.
    WOW, it's like the preseason for 2008 is being relived!! EVERYONE should be better, and we'll be BETTER at every position - especially SS and C - without a SINGLE move!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by UK Reds Fan View Post
    The 2 biggest potential downgrades are Dunn in LF and Affeldt/Weathers in the BP. The BP could be easier to maintain. Dunn is a huge whole...but there is some money freed up to address that concern.
    This is 100% correct. Everyone is down on Stormy Weathers, but I think it is misplaced. SURE we don't want him in the 9th inning - but in the 8th? We are about 1,000,000 times better in the 8th innning this year than 2007. Affeldt will be missed, you can bank on that. "Easier to maintain" again assumes what? that we have 3-4 rookies who will come in and play flawlessly and not have ANY bumps in the road along the way? We're going to need to bring in some more of these solid veteran types to stay the same, let alone upgrade.


    To me, it's basically the same tune we sang last year, and we know how that song played out this year. When the Fat Lady was done singing, there wasn't anyone in the audience left.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    Quote Originally Posted by redsbuckeye View Post
    I'm cautiously optimistic.

    Pitching - I expect to see a "regression" of Volquez to what he should actually be doing. He got lucky a bit this year and I doubt that luck will carry on to next season. That being said, even a regressed Volquez will be very solid. An ERA between of 4 or lower and I'll be happy with the guy. Cueto is a bit of the opposite in that he's been a bit unlucky. Like Volques, ERA of 4 and lower and it should be a successful year. I expect no real change out of Arroyo, and considering he's solid with what he does now, I'm dandy keeping him around. Harang needs a bounceback year, unfortunately, I don't see it happening. I'm worried the injury he has is a potentially career altering one. If he can come back to a reasonable production (again, ERA of 4) I'll be ecstatic. As for a fifth starter, I imagine it'll be a revolving door but really, how many teams really have solid 5th starters.

    Bullpen - 'pen is looking ok. I'm not a big Cordero fan and think his salary could be better spent elsewhere. But the other young guys are fine. Weathers I could take or leave. I think the pen will turn out fine.

    Offense - Votto will be a solid if unspectacular bat and EE will be much of the same. Bruce will continue to develop and will probably be another solid bat. Dickerson, again, solid as I doubt he'll be able to keep up his current pace, and now the injury demon rears its ugly head on him. SS needs fixing as does LF/CF (whichever Dickerson isn't playing). Brandon Phillips was disapointing this year and needs to bat lower in the lineup, bar none. It won't happen and Dusty will continue to misuse him and probably further hamper any offensive production. It may be a good time to trade him. Catcher is a usualy catcher thing, I guess Hanigan has looked allright.

    Overall, if this team finishes .500 it should be considered a successful year.
    Solid Post. I took so long to respond to the other post I missed yours entirely, lol!!

    We agree on a lot of things.

    Unfortunately I see this team's management using the highlighted line as it's goal - as opposed to going for the Brass Ring, which would require MAJOR Changes - just so they can say "See, we're a WINNING Ballclub" even at 82-80.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    Solid Post. I took so long to respond to the other post I missed yours entirely, lol!!

    We agree on a lot of things.

    Unfortunately I see this team's management using the highlighted line as it's goal - as opposed to going for the Brass Ring, which would require MAJOR Changes - just so they can say "See, we're a WINNING Ballclub" even at 82-80.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS

    I disagree. But your an overly emotional person to try and debate.

    The pitching staff has trimmed their e.r.a. by over a run (actually more) in the second half of the season. That shows improvement. And September has seen all but 1 opponent with a plus .500 record. So they pitched against good teams.

    Dunn and Griffey are gone. The defense gets better just because they are gone. That is a given. Also, I showed a stat on another thread that the Reds errors per game dropped from (off the top of my head) .77 per game to like .53 per game with Junior and Dunn gone.

    Hmmm. The team e.r.a. has been steadily dropping. The errors have decreased. The competition has been strong. What else do you want?

    I'm not predicting a World Championship next year, but they have all the tools to be much improved and a surprise like the Rays this year.

    Also, my original thread starter post said that I have faith in Castellini and Jocketty to spend some money on our needs. That is the sole purpose they traded Griffey and Dunn........to free up payroll.
    Last edited by ChatterRed; 09-24-2008 at 12:15 PM.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    Quote Originally Posted by BLEEDS View Post
    Outside of that, BP, Keppinger, and EE have all regressed - with EE putting up more power, but still not up to 2006 numbers. BP was to be expected - although not by many fans - but Kepp proved to be a disappointment, PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I agree that these three did regress, but you've also got to factor in WHY they didn't play as well. Keppinger was on the same pace offensively when he got injured. What was he hitting, something like .328 with very few strikeouts? Edwin is a mystery to me. He has improved in his ability to work a walk, but all too often he pops up in the infield with runners in scoring position. His defense is often unbelievably good/unbelievably bad. The one redeeming point is that he is still only 25...that being said, it's time to fish or cut bait! Brandon, in my view, is just a great guy to have on the team. He is special both defensively and offensively (but not hitting 4th!). I hope the Reds have the sense to hang on to him for the long haul.
    Last edited by roby; 09-24-2008 at 02:53 PM. Reason: punctuation

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    Im excited because we have Volquez, Cueto, Bruce, and Votto

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    Quote Originally Posted by roby View Post
    I agree that these three did regress, but you've also got to factor in WHY they didn't play as well. Keppinger was on the same pace offensively when he got injured. What was he hitting, something like .328 with very few strikeouts? Edwin is a mystery to me. He has improved in his ability to work a walk, but all too often he pops up in the infield with runners in scoring position. His defense is often unbelievably good/unbelievably bad. The one redeeming point is that he is still only 25...that being said, it's time to fish or cut bait! Brandon, in my view, is just a great guy to have on the team. He is special both defensively and offensively (but not hitting 4th!). I hope the Reds have the sense to hang on to him for the long haul.
    Agree, there is always a REASON why someone does certain things, but it seems there's ALWAYS a reason for these guys who can't consistently do X or Y at Z level.

    Between EE and BP, I'd rather "fish" with EE. As you said, he's younger, and this is part of his learning curve. He has upside and has more potential to reach it, AND he's increasing his eye at the plate, which is something that IF it is a talent, will stay with him longer than power, speed, etc...

    BP on the other hand, is about as good as he's gonna get. And, as one poster pointed out:
    "Brandon Phillips was disapointing this year and needs to bat lower in the lineup, bar none. It won't happen and Dusty will continue to misuse him and probably further hamper any offensive production. It may be a good time to trade him."
    I'd have to agree with him 100%. This is a guy you want to trade while his value is STILL high. He is relatively cheap for the next two years, but when he's in his BIG DOLLAR years of his contract, he'll likely already have peaked - if he hasn't already - and one of his greatest assest, speed, will be on the downslide. Counter that with the fact that he NEVER HAS and probably NEVER WILL hit RHP with anything better than a .750 OPS clip, AT BEST, you can't keep putting that guy in your cleanup spot and not suffer GREAT consequences.

    I would trade that guy for some pitching and/or OF pop in a heartbeat and not even blink. You can't keep a guy around for his Glove and 200 AB's out of .950 OPS v LHP to put up with 450 AB's of .700-ish OPS. No way, no how.
    However, I assume they're going to keep him around for another year or 2 to see if he gets any better, at age 28/29, like he did at 25, which is foolhardy, and we'll be stuck with his $11M contract in 2011.

    Between the two, EE seems to have the more sustainable power, BP's 30 HR's are now being seen as the fluke they were (based on the "just enough" HR analysis done in the ORG, etc), while EE has had an OPS of .800 for the last 3 years and overall for his career. His versatility to be able to move to LF/1B is also going to keep him around longer-term as well.

    PEACE

    -BLEEDS
    I think that in a year or two, one of these guys - Frazier, Dorn, Valaika, Cumberland, Stubbs - will be ready to replace Dunn. They won't hit as many home runs as Dunn, but they should have similar OPS. - 757690, July 22, 2008

    Alonso will be playing 1B for the REDS and batting 4th one year from today. - Kingspoint, July 9, 2009

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    74-83 .471 -21.5
    Very encouraging.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    I agree that Brandon is special defensively, but I don't care where he's at in the order he is not special with the bat. Against LHP he's above average and against RHP he's well below average.

    The biggest reason to optimistic about this team is their main players are young and have shown the ability to make adjustments. There will be an infusion of young talent over the next season or two, and hopefully these guys continue to get better and not regress after the league figure's them out. I think Walt & Bob have to decide whether they will move young players for proven veterans or if they are willing to let these guys grow as Cincinnati Reds.

    I don't have any faith in Harang coming back to form (I hope I'm wrong) and I think that 2008 and not 2007 is what we are going to see out of BP. So that leaves EE, Jay, and Joey to take the next big step and become offensive leaders. A couple high OBP guys at the top of the lineup (or throughout the lineup for that matter) would go a long way in helping these young guys take that step.

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    Re: The White Elephant in the room......okay I'll say it....

    So who do you replace Phillips with if you trade him? Keppinger?

    Please don't say Freel.
    Who's on first?


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