Structuring the Reds pitching for '09

[Kc61]

The starters -- Let's end the Fifth Starter myth. This team cannot afford to continue to trot out so-called "fifth starters" for 30 games a year. Over the last few seasons those fifth starter outings have wrecked the team ERA. This year's Fogg/Belisle/Bailey numbers are in the 7 plus ERA range.

There are currently four capable starters but only Volquez has real ground ball tendencies. At GABP, ground ball guys should be emphasized where possible.

We've seen over the last few weeks how consistent pitching can keep the team in games, even with its (temporarily) weaker offense. So the Reds should add another good starter, someone with ground ball tendencies. Lowe of the Dodgers (a free agent I think) would be ideal.

I know other teams have "fifth starters." But it just doesn't work with the Reds. Another "real" starter is the way to go. A ground ball guy.

The bullpen -- Instead of keeping a "long man" (really a sixth starter) who hardly ever pitches, the Reds need more workhorse type relievers who can throw multiple innings. For next year, Massett, Ramon Ramirez, and Micah Owings look to be guys who maybe can fill that role. Affeldt can from the left side, if they keep him, or else a lefty replacement is needed.

With Cordero, Burton, maybe Roenicke, Bray, maybe Weathers, maybe Herrera, I think the "short man" end is covered. But the pen should be filled out with pitchers who can throw two or three innings and do it often.

[Will M]

The starters -- Let's end the Fifth Starter myth. This team cannot afford to continue to trot out so-called "fifth starters" for 30 games a year. Over the last few seasons those fifth starter outings have wrecked the team ERA. This year's Fogg/Belisle/Bailey numbers are in the 7 plus ERA range.

There are currently four capable starters but only Volquez has real ground ball tendencies. At GABP, ground ball guys should be emphasized where possible.

We've seen over the last few weeks how consistent pitching can keep the team in games, even with its (temporarily) weaker offense. So the Reds should add another good starter, someone with ground ball tendencies. Lowe of the Dodgers (a free agent I think) would be ideal.

I know other teams have "fifth starters." But it just doesn't work with the Reds. Another "real" starter is the way to go. A ground ball guy.

The bullpen -- Instead of keeping a "long man" (really a sixth starter) who hardly ever pitches, the Reds need more workhorse type relievers who can throw multiple innings. For next year, Massett, Ramon Ramirez, and Micah Owings look to be guys who maybe can fill that role. Affeldt can from the left side, if they keep him, or else a lefty replacement is needed.

With Cordero, Burton, maybe Roenicke, Bray, maybe Weathers, maybe Herrera, I think the "short man" end is covered. But the pen should be filled out with pitchers who can throw two or three innings and do it often.

You are preaching to the choir.

My 2009 staff:
Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo & Lowe.
Cordero, Burton, Bray & Massett. (plus Affeldt if he comes back cheap).
Then three from Owings, Ramirez, Roenicke & Herrara. (Lincoln is in the mix here if dirt cheap).

The above is a really good pitching staff. The best starters we have had since ... Well name a Reds team with better starters. The pen isn't the nasty boys but is solid & deep. Plus we have depth.

This allows the Reds to trade some of the AAA starters for help in the position players.

[WVRedsFan]

I think you're on to something, especially with half the games being in GABP, but is our "5th starter" worse than anyone else's? I think yes. That's the problem (now, I'm talke about any club that wants to be good, you understand and not the Nationals and the like). I think that will be addressed over the winter too.

That is why I think you need a good offense in addition to a good pitching staff. As we've seen, our four starters have off nights once in awhile (and really more often) where 4 runs are allowed or more. You need an offense that can score runs on those nights. Then, the fifth starter can be a fifth starter. We don't have that. I also see a lot of the "kids" who have the potential to give us that 6-inning, 3 run game. Scoring three has been the problem, but that seems to be improving lately too.

All in all I agree with your premise. A good starter to take the fifth hole and more guys who can pitch 2 or 3 efective innings. Not a bad goal at all.

[SirFelixCat]

You are preaching to the choir.

My 2009 staff:
Volquez, Harang, Cueto, Arroyo & Lowe.
Cordero, Burton, Bray & Massett. (plus Affeldt if he comes back cheap).
Then three from Owings, Ramirez, Roenicke & Herrara. (Lincoln is in the mix here if dirt cheap).

The above is a really good pitching staff. The best starters we have had since ... Well name a Reds team with better starters. The pen isn't the nasty boys but is solid & deep. Plus we have depth.

This allows the Reds to trade some of the AAA starters for help in the position players.

Winner.

Oh, to have a pitching staff as the above is named. *swoon*

[OnBaseMachine]

Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, Johnny Cueto, and Bronson Arroyo should be the locks in the rotation. Francisco Cordero, Jared Burton, and Bill Bray are probably the locks in the bullpen. I wouldn't mind Affeldt back on a one year deal as the main lefty in the pen. Roenicke should make the team and provide the bullpen with another power arm from the right side. Micah Owings could fit the role of No. 5 starter/long man though I'd like to see someone else brought in. Randy Wolf could be a decent option to fill the 5th starters role:

Edinson Volquez
Aaron Harang
Johnny Cueto
Bronson Arroyo
Randy Wolf

Micah Owings
Ramon Ramirez
Bill Bray
Jeremy Affeldt
Josh Roenicke
Jared Burton
Francisco Cordero

Or they could attempt to pull off an EdE for Jonathan Sanchez type of deal.

Volquez
Harang
Cueto
Sanchez
Arroyo

[Falls City Beer]

Someone want to explain where the Reds are going to find the 40-45 million to pay Lowe for the next three seasons?

[AmarilloRed]

I think Ramon Ramirez would be a good choice for the fifth starter if he does as well in spring training as he has done so far in September. I also have not given up on the idea that Micah Owings could still be a legitimate starting pitcher next year.

[nate]

Someone want to explain where the Reds are going to find the 40-45 million to pay Lowe for the next three seasons?

In the cushions of Dunn and Griffey's recliners?

[WVRedsFan]

I think Ramon Ramirez would be a good choice for the fifth starter if he does as well in spring training as he has done so far in September. I also have not given up on the idea that Micah Owings could still be a legitimate starting pitcher next year.

My thoughts exactly. Walt Jocketty has finally stockpiled enough pitchers with a good chance of being that 5th starter. Owings is who I had in mind (and I think Jocetty had the same thought).

Time to get offensive in our trading...

[Falls City Beer]

My thoughts exactly. Walt Jocketty has finally stockpiled enough pitchers with a good chance of being that 5th starter. Owings is who I had in mind (and I think Jocetty had the same thought).

Time to get offensive in our trading...

Depth is important; one need look no further than the Cubs to see that their starting depth (and defense) is the reason they are the clear cream of the crop this season.

But depth works for the Cubs because they already have the headliners in place: Zambrano, Lilly, Dempster, and Harden represent a quartet that no one in the NL can come close to matching; having a Sean Marshall or a Jason Marquis means the Cubs can basically weather anything, but they can only do so because they've got a wrecking crew at 1-4.

With the Reds, the Sean Marshalls and Jason Marquises are expected to be headliners, when they should be the supporting cast. The Reds need to dream big and then execute on it.

The Reds shouldn't be looking to Ramirez or Owings as anything other than things to use in case of emergency. They need to find two headliners (one at bare minimum) and let the rest fight over the scraps

[Kc61]

My thoughts exactly. Walt Jocketty has finally stockpiled enough pitchers with a good chance of being that 5th starter. Owings is who I had in mind (and I think Jocetty had the same thought).

Time to get offensive in our trading...

Unless the Reds remove the phrase "fifth starter" from their vocabulary, they will continue to have pitching problems. The whole approach of questionable pitchers becoming the "fifth starter" has never worked for the Reds.

The Reds current rotation, while talented, isn't good enough to build in a questionable "fifth starter." Yes, Harang, Arroyo, and Cueto are very talented. But look at their numbers this year. None of the three has an ERA below 4.50. One of them is 4-16. They are all near or over 30 homers allowed.

Every starter on a ballclub pitches about 30 games. Entrusting a pitcher for, say, 6 innings (or more) of 30 ballgames is an enormous part of your team's performance. The impact of each rotation pitcher is enormous.

So, to me, I would add a major hitter but also a major pitcher. And, even with the raises, etc., they should be able to do this with Dunn and Griffey off the books.

Just as some other posters have said, the guys like Owings and Ramirez can supply depth either from the bullpen or from AAA.

[Degenerate39]

Rotation:
Edison Volquez
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Micah Owings

Bullpen:
Fransisco Cordero (Closer)
Jared Burton (8th inning)
Billy Bray (Left Specialist/8th inning)
Josh Roenicke
Ramon Rameriez
David Weathers
Danny Herrera

[reds44]

Rotation:
Edison Volquez
Aaron Harang
Bronson Arroyo
Johnny Cueto
Micah Owings

Bullpen:
Fransisco Cordero (Closer)
Jared Burton (8th inning)
Billy Bray (Left Specialist/8th inning)
Josh Roenicke
Ramon Rameriez
David Weathers
Danny Herrera

That's loooks familar.

[red-in-la]

Someone want to explain where the Reds are going to find the 40-45 million to pay Lowe for the next three seasons?

Milwaukee figured it out FCB. I would put the Reds fan base up against the "Bucket-Heads" anytime, anywhere.....and they have still missed the playofss for something like 26 years, and they are going to draw 3 million fans this year.

We are talking window of opportunity here....yet again.....whilst Harang, Arroyo and Cordero are still Reds, they better produce a winner somewhere along the line.

Find an average LF'er and a Dereck Lowe type and go for it......PLEASE!

[RedLegSuperStar]

I think LA will opt out of the contract of one Brad Penny.. If so then I would persue him. I wouldn't be opposed to Derrick Lowe either.

Harang
Volquez
Penny/Lowe
Arroyo
Cueto

I would go with what we have for the bullpen:

Cordero
Burton
Bray
Owings
Roenicke
Herrera
Masset