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Thread: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

  1. #1
    Member New Fever's Avatar
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    BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    1- Jay Bruce
    2 - Andrew McCutchen
    3 - Wade Davis
    4 - Reid Brignac
    5 - Jed Lowrie
    6 - David Huff
    7 - Neil Walker
    8 - Denard Span
    9 - Charlie Morton
    10 - Homer Bailey
    11 - David Purcey
    12 - Kevin Mulvey
    13 - Matt Joyce
    14 - Brandon Moss
    15 - J.A. Happ
    16 - Jeff Niemann
    17 - Brandon Jones
    18 - Collin Balester
    19 - Brett Gardner
    20 - Chris Getz

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Serious question: If a scout saw Homer Bailey today, what assessment would he make of him. I just don't get the status anymore.

    I'm surprised to see Neil Walker that high too. He's certainly young, but a .242/.280/.414 with poor defense is hardly inspiring.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    I'd have Daryl Thompson in the top 10 before Homer Bailey.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    If a scout saw Bailey pitch his final game of the year, I would be willing to wager that he would rank him #2 behind Jay Bruce. If a scout saw him pitch other times this year, then #10 might be right. You have to remember, there were long periods of time Bailey wasn't allowed to throw a 4 seam fastball, so he was working in the low 90's. Scouts that saw that Bailey were obviously going to downgrade him. His last start of the year he was throwing consistent 94-96 MPH.

    He is a bit of an enigma, but I still think upside in his arm would put him as high as #2 in that list behind only Jay Bruce.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    I forgot that Bruce eligible for the IL top 20. Bruce #1 is a no brainer.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    I remain totally in the Bailey camp. His upside is still very great. It would be a serious mistake to trade him. I like Ramirez and think he's earned the role of top contender for next year's #5 guy, I also like Thompson and Owings, but Reds fans should want Homer to win that spot, because if he can do it, it means we've really got a rotation. The kid's combination of stuff is still that of a number 1 starter: 96 mph fastball, mid to high 80's slider, curveball with lots of downward action, developing change. He's still an extremely young pitcher who's never really needed to learn to pitch until the last two years. One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.
    great interest without great offers, I figure.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    If a scout saw Bailey pitch his final game of the year, I would be willing to wager that he would rank him #2 behind Jay Bruce. If a scout saw him pitch other times this year, then #10 might be right. You have to remember, there were long periods of time Bailey wasn't allowed to throw a 4 seam fastball, so he was working in the low 90's. Scouts that saw that Bailey were obviously going to downgrade him. His last start of the year he was throwing consistent 94-96 MPH.
    Any idea on why they would do that?

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    great interest without great offers, I figure.
    Exactly. I'm sure lots of other GMs will be looking to do us the "favor" of taking our failed former top prospect off our hands.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    We better resist their desire to do us this particular favor. We'll regret it later on. Best thing to do with Homer is to keep him and let him develop.

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Any idea on why they would do that?
    I would imagine to get more work and practice on his secondary pitches.

    However, this is the first I've heard of it. I'm sure you're right, Doug, but do you have a link or a quote I could go over?

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    I remain totally in the Bailey camp. His upside is still very great. It would be a serious mistake to trade him. I like Ramirez and think he's earned the role of top contender for next year's #5 guy, I also like Thompson and Owings, but Reds fans should want Homer to win that spot, because if he can do it, it means we've really got a rotation. The kid's combination of stuff is still that of a number 1 starter: 96 mph fastball, mid to high 80's slider, curveball with lots of downward action, developing change. He's still an extremely young pitcher who's never really needed to learn to pitch until the last two years. One thing I think WJ will find: if he starts shopping Homer around, there will be a lot of interest.
    Exactly. I'd deal Homer, but only for a long term fix to one of the team's/organization's pressing problems. Would I include him in a deal for say a JJ Hardy? Yes. Would I deal him for a rental or a stopgap? No and the suggestion is short sighted IMO. Glad he wasn't dealt for Eric Bedard.

    Homer just turned 22 in May and is younger than these Reds minor league pitchers (I left the journeyman like Joe Valentine and Justin Lehr off the list) who seem to have their fans as future guys who may develop:

    Carlos Fisher, Ben Jukich, Ty Pelland, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Sam Lecure, Ramon Geronimo, Robert Manuel, Lee Tabor, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Dallas Buck, Scott Carroll, Misael Dejesus, Rafael Gonzalez, Matthew Klinker, Joseph Krebs, Logan Ondrusek, Steve Otterness, Tyler Rhoden, Alex Smit, Terrell Young, Henry Arias, Derrick Conatser, Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Guerrero, Jeremy Horst, Jeff Jeffords, Luis Montano, Juan Rafael, Jamie Arneson, Leonardo Astorga, Mike Bohana, Andrew Bowman, Jordan Hotchkiss, Randall Linebaugh, Junior Martinez, David Torcise, Dan Zeffiro, and Greg Dombrowski.

    Its way too soon to give up on Bailey or even remotely begin to believe that what we've seen is a finished product. He wasn't ready physically, emotionally or developmentally when he was rushed to the big leagues. He pitched 147.666 innings combined in AAA and MLB in 2008. Its the most he's ever thrown in a season. I wanted to see Homer too back in 2007 and had dreams of him becoming an instant phenom, but with hindsight's assistance I can now ask, how can anyone consider a kid with no track record of even throwing 150 innings in a season ready for a big league rotation? The fact he that he crashed and burned is not a reason to believe all is lost with this kid. It was really the most likely outcome all along. He needs 175 innings or so in 2009 and if some of those are in the big leagues, it will probably entail taking some lumps. We have an on-hand example of what a pitcher can go through as he grows into his ace potential in Edinson Volquez. Giving up on Homer is a mistake to be avoided.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-27-2008 at 07:19 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    many see as future guys who may develop:

    Carlos Fisher, Ben Jukich, Ty Pelland, Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Sam Lecure, Ramon Geronimo, Robert Manuel, Lee Tabor, Pedro Viola, Sean Watson, Dallas Buck, Scott Carroll, Misael Dejesus, Rafael Gonzalez, Matthew Klinker, Joseph Krebs, Logan Ondrusek, Steve Otterness, Tyler Rhoden, Alex Smit, Terrell Young, Henry Arias, Derrick Conatser, Enerio Del Rosario, Daniel Guerrero, Jeremy Horst, Jeff Jeffords, Luis Montano, Juan Rafael, Jamie Arneson, Leonardo Astorga, Mike Bohana, Andrew Bowman, Jordan Hotchkiss, Randall Linebaugh, Junior Martinez, David Torcise, Dan Zeffiro, and Greg Dombrowski.


    many?

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by princeton View Post
    many?
    I believe you started a thread about "three hard-throwing Dayton lefthanders." The implication was that they may be something of value. Two of those were Drew Bowman and Jamie Arneson both older and quite a bit behind Homer. I also remember something about Horst not a Muhlmann, but can't find that one. It seems many on here take notice of these kids with some hope being implied while considering a younger, more developed and higher ceiling Homer a bust already.

    It wasn't meant to imply that many experts consider all these kids top prospects which it may now that I re-read it. Just that many on here are already giving up on Homer while trumpeting the virtues of these "kids" who are actually older and much farther away in most cases. I trumpet them too, but I still think Homer is the best bet of all the Reds minor league pitchers to be a good major leaguer and its really not close.

    I'll edit the wording a bit. Thanks.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-27-2008 at 07:20 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: BA IL Top 20 Prospects (2 Reds)

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I believe you started a thread about "three hard-throwing Dayton lefthanders." The implication was that they may be something of value.
    point of that thread was that successful teams get something of value out of the occasional lefty. The Reds don't -- most don't get out of Dayton -- and I expect that to continue even though they've thrown a bit more money at it. There just doesn't look like much is out there.

    last successful homegrown lefty was.... Tom Browning and Rob Murphy? Franco, Charlton, Myers, Jackson, Schourek all came from elsewhere. BJ Ryan wasn't here long enough to get ruined, apparently (lucky for BJ). Chris Hammond's probably the only semi-success in 20 years.

    me, I believe more in pitching depth than individual pitching prospects. If you have enough prospects, a few will step up even though you're not actually sure who. Reds don't have that at all with lefties-- though, to be fair, it does look a bit better than it has in the past 10 years. but Reds have righties-- maybe Homer never steps up, but Thompson or Cueto or Ramirez might. Homer's just a piece of the depth, not a key.

    I don't mind trading out of that depth, but since Homer has very little value in trade, you don't trade him. baseball's a very simple game.
    Last edited by princeton; 09-27-2008 at 09:29 AM.


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