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Thread: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    He asked for suggestions last week for topics to do this week and I threw Drew Stubbs into the idea box and he took it.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/...lysis-drew-stu

    Drew Stubbs was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the first round in 2006, from the University of Texas. The eight-overall pick in the draft, Stubbs showed excellent tools and a power/speed combination in college, but he also showed a propensity to strike out. Some scouts worried that his long swing might not translate well against pro pitching, but his athleticism was too much for the Reds to pass up. He hit .252/.368/.400 with 19 steals in 56 games in the Pioneer League after signing, with 32 walks but 64 strikeouts in 210 at-bats. I gave him a Grade B- in the '07 book, writing that Stubbs had a high ceiling but "is a dangerous player to grade" since he could blow up just easily as he could develop.

    Stubbs spent all of 2007 with Dayton in the Midwest League, hitting .270/.364/.421, with 23 steals, 69 walks, and 142 strikeouts in 497 at-bats. He drew raves for his excellent outfield defense, but scouts remained concerned about the bat, due to a long swing and problems against breaking pitches. His overall production wasn't terrific, +13 percent OPS, but the high strikeout rate was worrisome. I left him at Grade B- in the book this year, still wondering if he would make sufficient contact against better pitching.

    The Reds sent Stubbs to Sarasota in the Florida State League to begin 2008. He hit .261/.366/.406 with 27 steals in 303 at-bats, with just five homers. He did draw 50 walks, with 82 strikeouts, and continued to impress observers with excellent glovework. His performance was similar to what he did in '07, with a +10 percent OPS. Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga, he hit .315/.400/.402 in 26 games, demonstrating good plate discipline but still not much home run power. He moved up to Triple-A Lousiville in August and hit .293/.354/.480, interestingly showing more power but weaker plate discipline with the worst walk rate of his career. The Double-and Triple-A sample sizes are small, of course. Overall on the year, he hit a combined .277/.371/.417 at three levels, with 33 steals, 67 walks, and 123 strikeouts in 470 at-bats. He hit just seven homers, but knocked 33 doubles.

    I suspect I will keep Stubbs at Grade B- in the 2009 book. We still have unanswered questions here. The defense and speed are going to carry forward to the majors. But strikeouts and batting average are still concerns, and it is still unclear how much home run power he's going to develop. The power spike in Triple-A is interesting, though again with a 19 game sample size it's hard to conclude that something real changed. It could just be statistical variation, though the fact that his production didn't decline is certainly a good marker.

    So, can Stubbs be a regular? I think if you stuck him in the lineup in 2009, he'd hit something like .245/.325/.380, though he's steal a few bases and play great defense. Perhaps he could be something like Carlos Gomez, with a few more walks.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    He asked for suggestions last week for topics to do this week and I threw Drew Stubbs into the idea box and he took it.

    http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/...lysis-drew-stu

    Drew Stubbs was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the first round in 2006, from the University of Texas. The eight-overall pick in the draft, Stubbs showed excellent tools and a power/speed combination in college, but he also showed a propensity to strike out. Some scouts worried that his long swing might not translate well against pro pitching, but his athleticism was too much for the Reds to pass up. He hit .252/.368/.400 with 19 steals in 56 games in the Pioneer League after signing, with 32 walks but 64 strikeouts in 210 at-bats. I gave him a Grade B- in the '07 book, writing that Stubbs had a high ceiling but "is a dangerous player to grade" since he could blow up just easily as he could develop.

    Stubbs spent all of 2007 with Dayton in the Midwest League, hitting .270/.364/.421, with 23 steals, 69 walks, and 142 strikeouts in 497 at-bats. He drew raves for his excellent outfield defense, but scouts remained concerned about the bat, due to a long swing and problems against breaking pitches. His overall production wasn't terrific, +13 percent OPS, but the high strikeout rate was worrisome. I left him at Grade B- in the book this year, still wondering if he would make sufficient contact against better pitching.

    The Reds sent Stubbs to Sarasota in the Florida State League to begin 2008. He hit .261/.366/.406 with 27 steals in 303 at-bats, with just five homers. He did draw 50 walks, with 82 strikeouts, and continued to impress observers with excellent glovework. His performance was similar to what he did in '07, with a +10 percent OPS. Promoted to Double-A Chattanooga, he hit .315/.400/.402 in 26 games, demonstrating good plate discipline but still not much home run power. He moved up to Triple-A Lousiville in August and hit .293/.354/.480, interestingly showing more power but weaker plate discipline with the worst walk rate of his career. The Double-and Triple-A sample sizes are small, of course. Overall on the year, he hit a combined .277/.371/.417 at three levels, with 33 steals, 67 walks, and 123 strikeouts in 470 at-bats. He hit just seven homers, but knocked 33 doubles.

    I suspect I will keep Stubbs at Grade B- in the 2009 book. We still have unanswered questions here. The defense and speed are going to carry forward to the majors. But strikeouts and batting average are still concerns, and it is still unclear how much home run power he's going to develop. The power spike in Triple-A is interesting, though again with a 19 game sample size it's hard to conclude that something real changed. It could just be statistical variation, though the fact that his production didn't decline is certainly a good marker.

    So, can Stubbs be a regular? I think if you stuck him in the lineup in 2009, he'd hit something like .245/.325/.380, though he's steal a few bases and play great defense. Perhaps he could be something like Carlos Gomez, with a few more walks.
    That is unless he hits in front of Votto who hits in front of Holliday in '09

    That 1-4 would be scary, Stubbs, Votto, Holliday, Bruce; Stubbs getting on then wrecking havoc on the bases, Votto moving him over, Holliday plating 2, Bruce hitting a 2 run bomb.
    Last edited by redhawk61; 09-26-2008 at 05:58 PM.

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    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    I did ask Sickels if he saw Drew play this year. I am betting he hasn't.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Its pretty amazing that Carlos Gomez got so much playing time this year when you look back on it.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    If Stubbs can still take walks and hit doubles in the majors, I could care less if he hit less than 10 HR's.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    Its pretty amazing that Carlos Gomez got so much playing time this year when you look back on it.
    Gomez was rushed to the majors by the Mets. Ideally he should only be in Double-A at the moment but the Mets couldn't resist rushing him. He's still got quite a way to go offensively, but defensively he's the best center fielder in the game.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Yea he is amazing in center no doubt about that.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by Bip Roberts View Post
    Its pretty amazing that Carlos Gomez got so much playing time this year when you look back on it.
    Well I'll be, the Bipster returns! Welcome back.

    Anyhoo, I think Sickels' line for Stubbs is a pretty realistic one, though I'd be tempted to up the OBP by about 15-20 points. With his solid approach, I could see him getting on base around 34% of the time or so, which wouldn't be bad at all for a rookie.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    I always thought that if Stubbs turns out to be a Mike Cameron like player, then he would help this team.
    Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I always thought that if Stubbs turns out to be a Mike Cameron like player, then he would help this team.
    I don't see how he couldn't, although most would suggest that Mike Cameron is close to Stubbs's ceiling as a Major Leaguer.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Cameron swings for the fences, Ive havent seen Stubbs in a few years but when I did he seemed to be more of a line drive hitter.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    What is wrong with a line drive hitter?

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Having seen Stubbs this year at Louisville, I basically agree with that grade. But in the short time he was here, I saw improvement at the plate. His discipline was pretty good as far as not swinging at balls off the plate but he seemed to be guessing too much rather than seeing the pitch. He guessed right enough to be successful but when he guessed wrong he could look pretty bad. He's an obvious great project for Smokey. His power didn't show that often but he did hit a monster 438 foot shot. So, it's there and making it a regular part of his game will take some time. Defense/speed was first rate.

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by BEETTLEBUG View Post
    What is wrong with a line drive hitter?
    nothing, I keep hearing Stubbs is like Cameron and Im wondering how is that?

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    Re: John Sickels on Drew Stubbs

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    nothing, I keep hearing Stubbs is like Cameron and Im wondering how is that?
    It's because Stubbs plays superb defense in center field, has great speed, strikes out a lot, is not expected to have a great batting average, and has power potential. Cameron didn't have many homeruns until he hit 28 in AA during his fifth year in the minors, and I think people are expecting a somewhat similar breakout from Stubbs, which could help explain the 'power potential' part of the comparison.


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