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Thread: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

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    Making sense of it all Matt700wlw's Avatar
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    Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    It will be a little while before we know what the Reds are going to do with their nine free agents. Players have until two weeks after the end of World Series to file for free agency. Clubs have to until Dec. 1 to offer arbitration. That's can be a key thing because you have offer a player arbitration in order to get compensation for him. Players have to be in the top 40 percent of their position statistically for clubs to get compensation. Not many players on the Reds list fit into that category. Players have until Dec. 7 to accept arbitration.

    Here's a list of Reds free agents:


    Jeremy Affeldt: He had a good year -- 1-1, 3.33 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings. But his stuff is so good that my guess is someone will offer him a more prominent role than the Reds will.

    Paul Bako: If the Reds had a catcher who was going to start five or six days a week, he'd be a decent backup. But my guess is they end up going with Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan's enough of an unkonwn that the No. 2 catch could end of with a lot of starts.

    Josh Fogg: No chance he's back.

    Jerry Hairston Jr.: He hit .326, scored 47 runs in 80 games and stole 15 bases in 18 attempts. I think he'll be back. He sounded like he wanted to return when I asked him about it. But you never know what kind of offer may be out there.

    Mike Lincoln: He was on his way to good year, but he faded at the end and ended 2-5 with 4.48 ERA. His numbers may slipped becasue he was tired late in the season. He was pitching for first time in four years, after all. Wouldn't be surprised if he's back.

    Kent Mercker: He's going to retire. Said his new job will be "turning Vodka into urine."

    Corey Patterson: It's probably in the best interests of all parties that he move on. His defense is first ragte, but it took a strong finish to get his average up to .207.

    Javier Valentin: He won't be back for the role he was in last year. He wasn't happy getting one start a month.

    David Weathers: I'd bring him back. He put up a 3.25 ERA. He can pitch just about every day. And he's a leader.

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    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Kent Mercker: He's going to retire. Said his new job will be "turning Vodka into urine."
    ...and turning his liver into cheesecloth.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Jeremy Affeldt: He had a good year -- 1-1, 3.33 ERA, 80 strikeouts in 78 1/3 innings. But his stuff is so good that my guess is someone will offer him a more prominent role than the Reds will.
    He'll go to the highest bidder and it ain't us. He'll be hard to replace.

    Paul Bako: If the Reds had a catcher who was going to start five or six days a week, he'd be a decent backup. But my guess is they end up going with Ryan Hanigan. Hanigan's enough of an unkonwn that the No. 2 catch could end of with a lot of starts.
    I'm a little confused. Fay seems to making the case for Bako being the backup. It wouldn't surprise me, but Dusty would start him every other day which would be pointless. Pray that they let him go.

    Josh Fogg: No chance he's back.
    Thank goodness. What a disaster that acquisiton was.

    Jerry Hairston Jr.: He hit .326, scored 47 runs in 80 games and stole 15 bases in 18 attempts. I think he'll be back. He sounded like he wanted to return when I asked him about it. But you never know what kind of offer may be out there.
    If Freel and Keppinger are gone, he could be valuable if he can stay healthy, but no team needs three utilitymen, and Freel's contract keeps him here.

    Mike Lincoln: He was on his way to good year, but he faded at the end and ended 2-5 with 4.48 ERA. His numbers may slipped becasue he was tired late in the season. He was pitching for first time in four years, after all. Wouldn't be surprised if he's back.
    I'm betting on him coming back, but I'd just as soon he go somewhere else to allow hits and runs.

    Corey Patterson: It's probably in the best interests of all parties that he move on. His defense is first ragte, but it took a strong finish to get his average up to .207.
    I pray he gets a better offer because if he's cheap, he just might be back. Like Bako, Dusty will find a way to get him in the lineup to hit .200 again if he stays.

    Javier Valentin: He won't be back for the role he was in last year. He wasn't happy getting one start a month.
    Seeya Javy.

    David Weathers: I'd bring him back. He put up a 3.25 ERA. He can pitch just about every day. And he's a leader.
    Weathers is nearing forty. Remember the last guy we had like that? Time to cut ties. I don't want to have nightmares of Weathers ending up like Stanton over and over.
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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    They all should be gone along with Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Jon Adkins and Adam Pettyjohn. That should open plenty of room on the 40 man roster.

    I might bring one of Lincoln, Weathers or Affeldt back, but the Reds have the end of games covered with Cordero and Burton, a usable lefty in Bray, a hard thrower in Masset, at least one extra starter in Ramirez/Owings and that only leaves two spots with lots of candidates in Herrera, Roenicke, Fisher, Maloney, Thompson and whichever six year minor league free agents that they decide to bring in. If they add a starter as they should, then both Owings and Ramirez will be available for the pen. By the end of the year, Watson, Stewart, Viola and others could join the mix. Its just not an area that the reds need to spend a lot of resources on.

    Get a SS.
    Last edited by mth123; 10-01-2008 at 09:54 PM.
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    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    They all should be gone along with Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera, Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Jon Adkins and Adam Pettyjohn. That should open plenty of room on the 40 man roster.

    I might bring one of Lincoln, Weathers or Affeldt back, but the Reds have the end of games covered with Cordero and Burton a usable lefty in Bray, a hard thrower in Masset at least one extra starter in Ramirez/Owings and that only leaves two spots with lots of candidates in Herrera, Roenicke, Fisher, Maloney, Thompson and whichever six year minor league free agents that they decide to bring in. If they add a starter as they should, then both Owings and Ramirez will be available for the pen. By the end of the year, Watson, Stewart, Viola and others could join the mix. Its just not an area that the reds need to spend a lot of resources on.

    Get a SS.
    I like where your head's at.

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    Playoffs Cyclone792's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    I'm pretty much with mth.

    The only FA I'd have any interest whatsoever in sitting down and negotiating with is Affeldt. If he's willing to be reasonable in cost/years then it may be worthwhile to bring him back; he is a southpaw that misses bats. If he wants to test the market, offer him arb and grab the pick.

    The rest of those "ballplayers" should already have their bags sitting on the curb waiting for them, no questions asked.
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    Raaaaaaaandy guttle11's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    I'd take Hairston back for the right price and role. He's not an everyday starter. He's what many seem to think Freel is...a nice utility player that can fill in just fine at multiple positions and provide some quality off the bench. However, I'm pretty sure he doesn't view himself that way...so he probably won't be back.

    The rest are either sure fire "no", going to be priced out of the Reds market (Affeldt only) or can be replaced easily. No need to devote much time to them.
    Last edited by guttle11; 10-01-2008 at 09:42 PM.
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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclone792 View Post
    I'm pretty much with mth.

    The only FA I'd have any interest whatsoever in sitting down and negotiating with is Affeldt. If he's willing to be reasonable in cost/years then it may be worthwhile to bring him back; he is a southpaw that misses bats. If he wants to test the market, offer him arb and grab the pick.

    The rest of those "ballplayers" should already have their bags sitting on the curb waiting for them, no questions asked.
    I also agree with this. If Hairston wants to come back on a one year deal at $1 million or less then fine. If he demands more then let him walk.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  10. #9
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Affeldt is the only one who I'd definitely pursue. In the bullpen, he's a legitimate asset. That said, I'd offer no more than 2/7 and he'll get more than that.

    I wouldn't mind having Hairston around in a utility role. But he's redundant with Freel, will get paid more than he's worth from somebody, and I just don't trust Dusty to play him behind more talented youth.

    The rest can (and should) walk. Nothing Weathers did last year merited an ERA in 3s. A K/9 south of 6.0 and a BB/9 nearing 4.0 is a recipe for disaster. ERAs for relievers can often lie as some portion of the runs allowed to which they contribute get appropriate to the guy the replace. He's the kind of guy who could pitch the same way next year and have an ERA north of 5.00. I think (hope) some big market team offers him $4M+ for a year.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Kent Mercker: He's going to retire. Said his new job will be "turning Vodka into urine."
    That is one hell of a quote.

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    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Like many above, interested in Affelt if the money is right.

    Interested in Harriston as long as Freel/Hopper are gone and it's a 1 year deal. My big concern there, however, is that Dusty will fall in love with him, run him out daily and over the course of an entire year (assuming he can stay healthy) he'll be totally exposed.

    The rest.....send em packing.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 10-01-2008 at 10:18 PM.
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    RZ Chamber of Commerce Unassisted's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Kent Mercker: He's going to retire. Said his new job will be "turning Vodka into urine."
    I think Mickey Mantle had that job after he retired. Merck should ask him whether it was a good gig.

    David Weathers: I'd bring him back. He put up a 3.25 ERA. He can pitch just about every day. And he's a leader.
    Translation: He's a quote machine and one of my primary sources in the clubhouse. I need the Reds to bring him back.
    /r/reds

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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    I pretty much agree with everything except bringing Stormy back.

    I wouldn't yell much if they brought back Lincoln (cheap), but I believe there are younger arms with more upside who can probably give you about the same performance for less.

    I would really love to be pleasantly surprised and hear they have signed Affeldt for another year or two to to a reasonable contract. Hard-throwing lefties are tough to find and I think he's very useful in the right role. I don't expect it to happen though. I think there wil lbe too much demand out there and I'm not certain he was compketely thrilled with his opportunity to start here either.

    I'm fine with Hairston back in a super-sub role, but agree that I don't want a bench full of light-hitting utility guys.

    They're looking at a bench of six guys if they keep 11-pitchers or five if they keep 12 arms. I think a five-man bench is more likely (especially if Owings is on the staff, giving them another bat).

    If I were setting up the bench for next year, I would:

    * Acquire another young catcher to tandem with Hannigan (that's one)

    * Add a RH hitter who can play 1B and at least one corner OF spot and a LH 5th OF. I would want both these guys to have bigger bats than anyone that was on this year's bench and serve as my primary pinch hitter from each side of the plate. Dickerson might be the LHer if they acquire a CFer. (That's two more for a total of three)

    * Wlkin Castillo would have a big edge on the 4th spot because he can do a decent job of fielding at several positions (including catcher), shows signs of a decent bat and can hit from the left side (that's four)

    That means there would probably be one more spot (two at the most) for another utility guy from among Keppinger, Freel, Risales, Richar, Janish or Hairston (if re-upped)

    They'll probably go light on pinch-hitting again and go with another utility guy instead fo getting a RH bat for the bench.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 10-02-2008 at 12:19 AM.

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    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    Quote Originally Posted by Matt700wlw View Post
    Kent Mercker: He's going to retire. Said his new job will be "turning Vodka into urine."
    Quote of the year and probably next year too. Give the man a gold watch and a bottle of Iceland's finest alcohol.

    As for the FA's I'd bring back Hairston, Weathers and Affeldt.

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    Re: Fay's thoughts on the free agents

    The Reds should try to sign Affeldt and Weathers, but obviously not overpay. If you want to let them walk, just look at the problems some other teams had in putting together a credible bullpen with depth. For those who say that Weathers is now ready to implode, I read the same thing about Todd Jones who, I believe, relieved in the World Series after he left the Reds.

    The Reds should also try to sign Hairston for a year or two. At worst, he's a reasonable backup player who can fill several positions. At best, he's the best leadoff hitter on the team.

    As for Lincoln, I wouldn't spend a lot to keep him because he really fell off near the end of the season and did give up a lot of long balls overall. Still, he had his moments last season and likely will be in the big leagues next year. I think he'll move on from the Reds.

    I wouldn't re-sign Patterson or Bako. Too many outs. Fogg isn't in the picture for next year. Javy has some value as a pinch hitter who can catch in an emergency. Wouldn't be shocked if they re-sign him, but most likely he moves on.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-01-2008 at 10:35 PM.


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