Who is Redszone's #5 prospect?

[chicoruiz]

I voted for Roenicke. Despite his age, he's still a baby pitching-experience wise, and there's a lot of tread left on his tires, arm-wise. All he has to do to be completely lights-out is develop his secondary stuff, and I think it's highly likely that he'll do just that.

[camisadelgolf]

Fourth time a charm? I went with (inarguably?) the highest ceiling in the organization, Juan Duran.

[lollipopcurve]

Dickerson again

[bucksfan2]

Dickerson again

Im kind of surprised that Dickerson isn't getting more votes. He came up to the bigs and held his own this last season. He should be the starting CF next year coming out of camp and has a game to get excited about. The key will be how he makes adjustments but in reality voting a young pitcher off major arm surgery ahead of Dickerson is something I can't do.

[BRM]

I went with Lotzkar. Although Doug does make a very compelling argument for Valaika here.

[SMcGavin]

I'll admit, I have absolutely no idea how to rank Duran and Rodriguez. It is also hard for me to compare Dickerson and Hanigan to some of the younger prospects. When I initially made my prospects list, those four guys weren't included, so I will have to do some switching around.

And OBM, I'd like to request that Matt Maloney be added to future polls. He was rated #7 on this list last season and just completed a AAA season with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Once Lotzkar is gone I'll be voting for him.

[*BaseClogger*]

I don't see Valaika as a guy who projects as well as other do. I think he'll be be a .725 to .775 OPS guy most of his career with a possible season or two where he tops .800 (probably with some BABIP help). Now that element of his game sounds fine "for a second basemen," but that really isn't the way that the standard should be applied. When the "for an up the middle player" qualifier is attached to a guy's offense, its usually a way of saying its ok to put his plus glove in the line-up (see Drew Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, Chris Heisey, Ryan Hanigan and Zach Cozart for an example of how to apply that standard). But if the guy's glove is a question mark, his offense needs to be the "plays anywhere" variety to be a top 10 guy (See Todd Frazier and Neftali Soto for examples of this).

If its questionable that the guy's glove will play up the middle, and his offense isn't good enough to qualify him at a corner, that sounds like a tweener to me who may be best projected as a supersub type. And, while I think Valaika may end up being a pretty good supersub, I can't project a tweener like that a lot higher on the list than I would guys who project as regular players, plus bats, near ready starters or back of the bullpen assets. I have Vailaika at number 16 and probably have him lower than just about anyone else does, but if his defense is in question and his offense being good enough depends on his defense being good enough then that sounds like a guy who is just a little short all around to me. Many are calling Valaika Jeff Kent, but I see Jeff Keppinger or maybe Ronnie Belliard (but Belliard is a better defender). I'm hoping for Mark Derosa, but again, DeRosa is a good defender at a number of spots.

That sounds about right, perhaps a little low IMO...

[kheidg-]

Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...

[Kc61]

Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...

Interesting question. You can't exclude injuries, of course, Thompson has had a number of them but now Lotzkar has had one as well.

The whole process of ranking prospects is fun but flawed. Players like Soto and Lotzkar benefit to some extent because they haven't had time for many bad trends to show up on their stats record. So we go with their potential and fast start.

Thompson, on the other hand, pitched five shutout innings against the Yankees at the Stadium. And looked good doing it. He then showed himself to be not ready, but still he's a young pitcher to have come so far. Will Lotzkar progress as well?

I think the good Reds prospects are fairly closely bunched. How to compare a 16 year old hitter with a polished 24 year old pitcher has always been a mystery to me. So you can't put too much emphasis on these rankings.

Whether you rank Lotzkar or Thompson higher is just in the eyes of the beholder.

[OnBaseMachine]

Can anyone tell me how Lotzkar projects higher than Daryl Thompson at this point? Injuries aside...

Thompson's stuff projects as a middle-of-rotation starter. He reminds me somewhat of a Bronson Arroyo type with more velocity on his fastball. Like Arroyo, he's got a big slow curveball and a decent changeup. Lotzkar, OTOH, has ace caliber stuff. Lotzkar just turned 19 years old today (Happy B-Day!) and can already run his fastball up to 95 with projection to add more velocity. He also throws a good curveball and changeup. All three pitches project as plus pitches. Thompson is a good pitching prospect and is closer to the majors obviously, but Lotzkar has a higher ceiling. I'd put him in the Homer Bailey/Johnny Cueto/Edinson Volquez class of pitching prospects.

[OnBaseMachine]

Also, this is a personal addendum, but maybe slow down the voting a bit? I mean, we have A LOT of offseason ahead of us. Let's let this prospect voting help to pass the time, but not necessarily right now. (JMHO, of course)

I've thought about adding a third day for voting but I've held off for now. It seems like the voting always slows down on the last day. How about this? I'll keep the next poll open for three days instead of two. If the voting increases by a decent margin then I'll continue to keep them open for three days. Is that fine with everyone?

[OnBaseMachine]

And OBM, I'd like to request that Matt Maloney be added to future polls. He was rated #7 on this list last season and just completed a AAA season with 8.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Once Lotzkar is gone I'll be voting for him.

I'll be sure to add Maloney on the next poll.

[lollipopcurve]

He came up to the bigs and held his own this last season.

.304/.413/.608 in 120 PAs -- plus speed and decent defense

if that's "holding your own," what's doing well?

I was never a big Dickerson fan as he rose through the minors, but I saw enough really good ABs from him while he was up to become a believer -- the guy is going to have a solid big league career, maybe a good one -- whether he's a 600AB guy or a 300AB guy, I don't know, but he's going to have a job for many years, I think, assuming he stays healthy

[Kc61]

I'll be sure to add Maloney on the next poll.

While you are adding, I think Justin Turner is going to be a very good major leaguer. I'd like to see him added soon. Thanks.

[TRF]

I picked Valaika in the last round, but I would have picked Dickerson had i looked harder. He's done it at a higher level, and has been more than solid at every minor league level. Plus his 1st 31 games were better than Jay Bruce's first 31. Also he may be the best defender on this list.