The Price For Magglio Ordonez?

[Krusty]

So I ask fellow Reds fans, would a deal involving Homer Bailey and say Josh Roenicke for Magglio Ordonez work for both teams? The following was taken from Buster Olney's blog:

Thoughts about teams not playing in Fall Classic

Wednesday, October 22, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

There are two teams in the World Series, and 28 teams already preparing for 2009. Some pieces from the rest of the baseball landscape:


• The Detroit Tigers will have the tricky task of trying to improve their team at the same time that they are shaving payroll, and at the same time that other teams don't see a lot of value in the Tigers' farm system other than young pitcher Rick Porcello (who the Tigers won't trade).

The Tigers could theoretically dangle Magglio Ordonez in trade talks in an effort to get pitching, coming off a year in which Ordonez batted .321 with 21 homers and 103 RBIs. But Ordonez is due to make $18 million next year, and he will turn 35 in January at a time when the industry has become extraordinarily skeptical about the ability of players to consistently produce into their late 30s.

[Degenerate39]

Detroit would have to send a lot of cash with Mags

[mth123]

So I ask fellow Reds fans, would a deal involving Homer Bailey and say Josh Roenicke for Magglio Ordonez work for both teams? The following was taken from Buster Olney's blog:

Thoughts about teams not playing in Fall Classic

Wednesday, October 22, 2008 | Feedback | Print Entry

There are two teams in the World Series, and 28 teams already preparing for 2009. Some pieces from the rest of the baseball landscape:


• The Detroit Tigers will have the tricky task of trying to improve their team at the same time that they are shaving payroll, and at the same time that other teams don't see a lot of value in the Tigers' farm system other than young pitcher Rick Porcello (who the Tigers won't trade).

The Tigers could theoretically dangle Magglio Ordonez in trade talks in an effort to get pitching, coming off a year in which Ordonez batted .321 with 21 homers and 103 RBIs. But Ordonez is due to make $18 million next year, and he will turn 35 in January at a time when the industry has become extraordinarily skeptical about the ability of players to consistently produce into their late 30s.

The Tigers would need to take some money back. Adding Freel would help a little but not enough. This deal isn't awful on its surface, but would take away two of the Reds biggest trading chips and not address any of its top 3 areas of need (while leaving little payroll available to help elsewhere). Maybe if the Tigers threw in James Skelton to help address the catching situation it would go down better, but I'd be against it unless the Tigers paid a lot of Mags' salary or the Reds got him for cast-offs like Majewski and Freel.

[Spring~Fields]

I thought that the Tigers wanted a closer?

How about Cordero and Dickerson for Magglio Ordonez and Granderson?
Toss in Freel and Gonzalez.

I don't think that the Reds can afford to take on large salaries and keep the higher priced pitching that they have for 2009 under their skimpy budgets and revenues.

[jojo]

Maggs was roughly a 3 win player last season when looking at the value of his bat and defense (which is -5 to -10 runs at this point). If the market rate is $4.5 to 5M per win, he was paid about exactly what the market says he should've been.

In '08 he gets a raise (and a year older). As it stands, he's not likely to be a 4+ win player next season (his '09 contract plus his '10 buyout dictates a 4 win value). Then there is a real possibility that the market will finally start correcting.

So in essence, Mags isn't likely to provide value if the Tigers simply gave his remaining contract to the Reds. The calculus absolutely doesn't work for the Reds IMHO if they have to send useful bodies back Detroit's way too.

Now is absolutely the time for Detroit to be selling Mags which means it's not the time to be buying him unless he's integral to those final 3 to 5 wins needed to get into the post season.

[Spring~Fields]

Maggs was roughly a 3 win player last season when looking at the value of his bat and defense (which is -5 to -10 runs at this point). If the market rate is $4.5 to 5M per win, he was paid about exactly what the market says he should've been.

In '08 he gets a raise (and a year older). As it stands, he's not likely to be a 4+ win player next season (his '09 contract plus his '10 buyout dictates a 4 win value). Then there is a real possibility that the market will finally start correcting.

So in essence, Mags isn't likely to provide value if the Tigers simply gave his remaining contract to the Reds. The calculus absolutely doesn't work for the Reds IMHO if they have to send useful bodies back Detroit's way too.

Now is absolutely the time for Detroit to be selling Mags which means it's not the time to be buying him unless he's integral to those final 3 to 5 wins needed to get into the post season.

What kind of example would have to be done to make it right for both Detroit and Cincinnati? I guess only the two GM's would know for sure, but I thought I would ask. I suppose there is no wrong answer if we stayed conservative, would there be?

[jesusfan]

Add Freel and his salary and I'd do it in a heartbeat... Dickerson-Phillips-Bruce-Mags-Votto-Edwin-Gonzo/Kepp-Catcher wouldn't be too shabby with our pitching staff...

[johngalt]

Sign me up for Magglio Ordonez.

He immediately makes an impact on this lineup and you can get him without dealing a huge chunk of your future.

[Will M]

Lets say we trade Freel & Gonzo & some 'prospects' (not anyone really good) for Ordonez. We dump $9.85M in bad contracts & take on $48M over 3 years.
So his contract becomes ~$13M a year. Would you sign him if he was a non type A free agent for 3 years $39M ? Borderline call IMO.
He has been good but lots of guys fall off a cliff at around age 35.

[Krusty]

If you're going to take his full salary, then I would offer Freel, Roenicke and another B type prospect. Now if they are willing to pick up a portion of Ordonez's contract, then you could talk the likes of Bailey.

[Raisor]

I guess I don't understand why the Reds would trade Dunn if they were going to turn around and trade for someone older and more expensive, with similar offensive numbers.

[Jpup]

I guess I don't understand why the Reds would trade Dunn if they were going to turn around and trade for someone older and more expensive, with similar offensive numbers.

Micah Owings can hit?

[camisadelgolf]

POSITIVE
.899 career OPS
.870 OPS in 2008 (granted, it's a dropoff, but it's not far from his career norm)
"veteran presence"
has much better numbers with runners on base
his hair
puts the ball in play
his productive numbers have come while playing in a pitcher's park
reportedly doesn't like Ozzie Guillen
World Series experience
will soon each 300 homerun plateau

NEGATIVE
35 years old next year
expensive (practically speaking, he'll make $21M in 2009 with a $12M club option for 2010)
would have to be acquired through trade
his hair
coming off a down year (albeit not much of one)
poor defense
very double play-prone
has never hit more than 32 homeruns in a season
covering five years, is six of his last 18 in stolen base attempts
has had knee and hernia surgeries

Basically, the Reds are looking for a replacement for Dunn, and as far as I'm concerned, Ordonez would be a very slight improvement. For me, the questions are "Is he healthy?", "How rapidly will his performance decline?" and "What would it take to acquire him?" If I like the answers to those questions, then I'd really like to see him in a Reds uniform. But before I explore those options, I'd prefer to look at the free agent market because a guy like Juan Rivera might be able to surprise people with similar numbers at a significantly smaller price.

Anyway, here's a comparison of Dunn and Ordonez over their careers:

Dunn
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	.225	.416	.474	.890
Empty	.250	.359	.529	.886
Total	.247	.381	.518	.900

Ordonez
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	.332	.409	.531	.940
Empty	.301	.352	.509	.860
Total	.312	.371	.520	.899

[camisadelgolf]

I guess I don't understand why the Reds would trade Dunn if they were going to turn around and trade for someone older and more expensive, with similar offensive numbers.

It's probably related to the length of the contract that Dunn is expecting. Ordonez has only $21M guaranteed through 2009 (and after that is two club options).

[blumj]

I guess I don't understand why the Reds would trade Dunn if they were going to turn around and trade for someone older and more expensive, with similar offensive numbers.

There's nothing preventing them from signing Dunn now if the price is right, and they still get to keep the players they got in the trade for him. He may get a better offer or he might just not want to come back, but I doubt it would be because they traded him to a contender when his contract was almost up.