Who is Redszone's #6 prospect?

[dougdirt]

His minor league OPS of .778 is similar to the number used to justify how great Stubbs is. Something along the lines of "if he (Stubbs) can post an OPS above .750 and play GG defense, he'll be a success." Dickerson is Stubbs albeit a couple of years older, and more experienced. Stubbs rocketed through three levels, but didn't really have the stats to warrant the promotion.

Dickerson had 4 full seasons where his SLG went up 2005 at Sarasota .383, 2006 at Chatt. .424, 2007 at Louisville .435 and 2007 also at Louisville .479.

The both start a full season at High A at the same age, 23, but Stubbs was instead pushed through the system despite the fact that he didn't reall SLG much at all. yes he did hit a little more at Sarasota, but his SLG, which we were told would jump when he left Sarasota stayed almost exactly the same. Now racing through the system increases his value as it keeps his age down relative to level, but he's not exactly tearing up the AFL. His stats at AAA were pretty har outside his norm, and the sample was pretty small, suggesting it was something of a fluke for him to SLG about 70 points higher than his minor league career going into his first AAA game.

I'm not saying he shouldn't be in the top 10, but I don't think he should be higher than Dickerson. JMO.

Of course Dickerson didn't slug over .424 at any stop until this year at age 26 and slugged under .400 at three different times along the way. If Drew Stubbs is 26, still in the minors and has his first season with slugging over .424, then he will be much like Dickerson is right now....having people say 'its way too early for him'. Drew still has 2 full seasons before he is Dickerson's age though, which is why he is going to be ahead of him until he shows he isn't.

[BRM]

I hear you on the Stubbs comp, TRF. You make a solid argument. Outside of age, is there a significant difference between the two? Both strike out quite a bit, play great defense and have great speed. I keep hearing Stubbs has a higher ceiling though. Maybe that's why he gets more respect.

[BRM]

So Doug is basically saying age is the driver for why Stubbs gets more respect than Dickerson.

[TRF]

Of course Dickerson didn't slug over .424 at any stop until this year at age 26 and slugged under .400 at three different times along the way.

incorrect. .424 at age 24 in AA, .435 at age 25 at AAA.

[dougdirt]

incorrect. .424 at age 24 in AA, .435 at age 25 at AAA.

My bad, he didn't slug over .424 until his age 25 season, in a league Stubbs has already been in at age 23. So Drew still has 2 full seasons to slug over .435 in AAA to be on the same pace as Dickerson does. Thats the difference between two guys at this point and its a decently sized difference.

Lets not take it as I don't like Dickerson, I do.... I just also see him as more of a guy who will have a few decent years at the plate in a specialized utility role where he doesn't face lefties at all before heading to the bench as a backup by the age of 30.

[TRF]

I hear you on the Stubbs comp, TRF. You make a solid argument. Outside of age, is there a significant difference between the two? Both strike out quite a bit, play great defense and have great speed. I keep hearing Stubbs has a higher ceiling though. Maybe that's why he gets more respect.

I think the difference so far is power, and power potential. Dickerson has shown a progression of power. Not great power, but his SLG trends up while it's hard to get a handle on Stubbs power potential because he didn't stay at any level longer than three month except for Rookie and Low A, and he didn't SLG well at either of those stops. But that is attributed to injury.

I think he's having his value artificially inflated in the hopes that one of two things happens.

1. he rises to the challenge and lives up to his draft slot and potential. From all accounts, Stubbs "looks" like a ball player. Good frame, speed, can take a walk, but K's a bunch and his swing isn't one that generates a lot of power.
2. The Reds are looking to package him while his value is high.

I'd have Dickerson at 5 and Stubbs closer to 8 in a top ten list.

[BRM]

Lets not take it as I don't like Dickerson, I do.... I just also see him as more of a guy who will have a few decent years at the plate in a specialized utility role where he doesn't face lefties at all before heading to the bench as a backup by the age of 30.

This is why I have a hard time putting Dickerson high on any prospect list. I like him and think he can be a useful player for the Reds but I don't see him as much more than a platoon center-fielder who can hit righties fairly well. That's a good asset to have on the team but not necessarily worthy of a high ranking on a prospect list.

And I have no idea what to really think of Stubbs at this point.

[TRF]

My bad, he didn't slug over .424 until his age 25 season, in a league Stubbs has already been in at age 23. So Drew still has 2 full seasons to slug over .435 in AAA to be on the same pace as Dickerson does. Thats the difference between two guys at this point and its a decently sized difference.

Lets not take it as I don't like Dickerson, I do.... I just also see him as more of a guy who will have a few decent years at the plate in a specialized utility role where he doesn't face lefties at all before heading to the bench as a backup by the age of 30.

Lets not forget sample size per league here, something I feel has real relevance. Stubbs hasn't SLG over .421 in any full season yet. in 2008 his SLG against RH was .393. That's who he'll face 2/3 of the time. Meanwhile Dickerson has neve SLG under .424 against RH pitching since High A ball. Meaning Dickerson will be more productive against more pitchers if this trend continues.

Stubbs also has two years to actually SLG what Dickerson did 2 levels ago. He hasn't done it yet, and he's significantly behind him at this point as far as production goes per level.

I just see the value in the guy that has already had success in full seasons at every level. Dickerson may be an average to above average MLB player, and he could blossom into a star. He's younger than 2/3 of the St. Louis OF. I think he's better than Schumaker offensively and defensively. And I can easily see him putting up similar numbers to Ludwick in 2007. Add to that his defense which has never been in question.

BTW, Ryan Ludwick posted a .966 OPS in his second full season at age 30.

I just see Dickerson higher on the list is all.

But I don't want to turn a good series of threads into another of our tireless Stubbs debates, so I'll bow out now.

I'll keep voting Dickerson until he's no longer an option.

[OnBaseMachine]

The next poll will be open within the next 30 minutes or so. Do you guys prefer keeping the voting open for two days or three?

[Mario-Rijo]

The next poll will be open within the next 30 minutes or so. Do you guys prefer keeping the voting open for two days or three?

2 days, this last poll seemed to take 4 days.

[mth123]

I know this poll is over, but want to add my 2 cents on the Dickerson/Stubbs debate. I think these guys are pretty close. Dickerson, being a lefty, has the platoon advantage more often and since these guys both have the potential to go south offensively, I think that actually makes Dickerson the better bet.

Stubbs OTOH is younger, was a first round pick and a guy with a major college background. I think that Stubbs would have greater market value if the Reds were to put him on the block today, so that gives him the nod in my book, but I really think Dickerson has a batter chance to "make it." In my personal rankngs I had Stubbs at 4 and Dickerson at 6.