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Thread: who is our 'trade bait' ?

  1. #1
    Brett William Moore Will M's Avatar
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    who is our 'trade bait' ?

    the Reds have needs. if you were Walt who would you try to deal to fill those needs? lets assume for a moment he tries to trade excess players we have at certain spots to fill our needs ( young SS, stopgap LF, etc ).
    assuming he doesn't make some mega deals involving guys like Arroyo /Cordero/etc here are my thoughts:

    1. Matt Maloney.
    He seems the odd man out despite being a lefty. His ceiling is less than Bailey or Thompson. He hasn't had major league success like Ramirez & Owings.
    Also it seems Ramirez and Owings could pitch out of the pen.
    Plus he is a flyball pitcher.

    2. EE, Phillips OR Valaika.
    From reports Valaika will play 2B or 3B ( not SS ). He'll start in AAA.
    Thats three guys for two positions. Plus we have Kep, Richar & Rosales hanging around Cinci or Louisville to fill in. Plus if we got a real SS Gonzo could play some 2B or 3B (if healthy).
    Frazier & Soto could play 3B and they are two of our top three prospects.
    I personally would move EE now but that is just me.

    3. Stubbs or Heissey (i may have butchered his name).
    I think Dickerson will not be an everyday centerfielder. More likely a LH part of a platoon or good 4th OF. He could make a platoon with Heissey and make Stubbs available. I wouldn't move Stubbs for just anything but if we could get a young SS back I would.

    4. after that it seems we don't have much. a lot of 'c' prospects and junk like Belisle & Majik ( who will be released if not traded )
    .

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Brandon Phillips & Bronson Arroyo are the players I'd be most willing to move and could also likely bring something worthwhile in return (especially if paired with prospect(s)).
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    The Reds need to deal from minor league depth with most of the trade bait being the minor leaguers who won't be ready for 2009. The Reds need to be using packages to make an offer and guys may become less available as others might be dealt. If a current player who plays a significant role on the major league team were to be dealt it would probably be Encarnacion. Otherwise:

    Group 1 (Main Bait) : Any or All for the right return: - Todd Frazier, Homer Bailey, Drew Stubbs, Juan Francisco, Devin Mesoraco

    Group 2 (MI Help): One of Justin Turner, Chris Valaika

    Group 3 (Young Near Ready Starters) : Any two of Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramirez, Micah Owings

    Group 4 (Role Players to throw in) : Any or all of these if anyone wants them: Norris Hopper, Jeff Keppinger, Matt Belisle, Gary Majewski, Bobby Livingston, Ryan Freel, Alex Gonzalez, Paul Janish, Danny Richar

    Group 5 (Middle to Late inning help) : Any one of Nick Massett, Josh Roenicke, or Carlos Fisher

    Just about anybody else would create a hole and would require a replacement as part of the deal (Bruce, Votto, Phillips, Cueto, Volquez, Harang, Arroyo, Burton, Cordero, Encarnacion) or probably has more value to the Reds than he would in trade (Dickerson, Hanigan, Rosales, Castillo, Viola, Manuel, Henry, Heisey, Cozart, etc.).

    The Reds must get a SS, a stop gap OF or 1B, a Catcher who can share the spot with Hanigan (prefer a LH Hitter), and hopefully an inning eating starter in the Arroyo mold.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Will M View Post
    the Reds have needs. if you were Walt who would you try to deal to fill those needs? lets assume for a moment he tries to trade excess players we have at certain spots to fill our needs ( young SS, stopgap LF, etc ).
    assuming he doesn't make some mega deals involving guys like Arroyo /Cordero/etc here are my thoughts:

    1. Matt Maloney.
    He seems the odd man out despite being a lefty. His ceiling is less than Bailey or Thompson. He hasn't had major league success like Ramirez & Owings.
    Also it seems Ramirez and Owings could pitch out of the pen.
    Plus he is a flyball pitcher.

    2. EE, Phillips OR Valaika.
    From reports Valaika will play 2B or 3B ( not SS ). He'll start in AAA.
    Thats three guys for two positions. Plus we have Kep, Richar & Rosales hanging around Cinci or Louisville to fill in. Plus if we got a real SS Gonzo could play some 2B or 3B (if healthy).
    Frazier & Soto could play 3B and they are two of our top three prospects.
    I personally would move EE now but that is just me.

    3. Stubbs or Heissey (i may have butchered his name).
    I think Dickerson will not be an everyday centerfielder. More likely a LH part of a platoon or good 4th OF. He could make a platoon with Heissey and make Stubbs available. I wouldn't move Stubbs for just anything but if we could get a young SS back I would.

    4. after that it seems we don't have much. a lot of 'c' prospects and junk like Belisle & Majik ( who will be released if not traded )
    I wouldn't put those 2 into the same category. Stubbs has the higher ceiling while still likely possessing just as high if not higher floor. Heisey is a good little player all around but he is destined for the bench & 4th/5th OF. Sure he can start for ya if you don't have other options and give you a fair effort and ok production but not for months and years. He's in the Keppinger/Freel mode IMO, as a matter of fact he may be a combination of those 2.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    A plethora of prospects and everyone on the roster not named Bruce, Votto, Vasquez, or Cueto. I'd even listen for deal aimed at those Fantastic Four, but would have to be absolutely overwhelmed.

    Those that I'd actively shop include:

    Brandon Phillips
    His offensive potential is just that, and, while his glove is excellent, the place he occupies in Dusty's batting order and his penchant for struggling against RH plus his poor baseball IQ are harbingers of inconsistency, both year to year and at-bat to at-bat.

    He's also young and incredibly talented. His bat speed is outstanding, his overall speed is exceptional, and both his arm and glove grade out above 65. He has a history of delivering power and SBs at the major league level and he's in his prime years of production right now. His contract is fairly reasonable for now, but will be expensive as early as 2010.
    Possible Teams: Colorado, New York (NL), LA (NL), Seattle, Milwaukee, Chicago (AL), St. Louis, Baltimore.

    Francisco Cordero
    That contract is fat and teams with budgets shouldn't pay for expensive closers. They're too easy to find and/or develop. Too, it's not like Cordero is automatic. Were his numbers Papellbonian or his stuff Lidge-like, I could see the expenditure. It's good, but not that good.

    Too, if any year is a good one to move a closer, this one is it. The only closer of note on the market is FRod and a lot of high market teams are in need of someone willing to close games. Detroit, New York (NL), Chicago, LA of Anaheim, and perhaps Tampa will all be willing to shell out big dough and Cordero's salary may look reasonable to those teams just a closer away.

    Not only that, Cincinnati has, IMO, three guys capable of closing right now and will soon have an older veteran that can teach them. Both Burton and Roenicke have closer arms, and, as soon as Weathers re-signs, he becomes the stop-gap to those two young arms. Another, less talked about possibility is to convert Homer Bailey to the role and watch him use that 95 mph fastball and Uncle Charlie to do what Cordero did last season-- close about 70-75% of his games.
    Possible Suitors: New York (NL), LA (AL), Milwaukee, Detroit, Tampa?

    Aaron Harang
    This may suprise some, but now would be a fairly good time to shop the erstwhile ace. He really strugled last season, but I don't think that would hurt his trade value all that much. He turned it around late, and, should Harang be dealt, I'd look for a package of near-ready prosects or a game-changing bat in his stead. Not likely, IMO.
    Possible Suitors: Everyone, particularly New York (AL), Boston, Detroit, New York (AL), LA (NL), Atlanta

    Bronson Arroyo
    The thing about Arroyo is that you have to know what you have in him. Arroyo is, in two of the past three years, a solid #2 pitcher to many GMs. They see the high ERA, but his perephials (W/L record and IP) scream a guy who "knows how to win". He's also a veteran arm who's been around both leagues. That, to me, lends itself to a GM willing to part with young, untested but talented players for veteran-ness and a proven track record. Play on that and hope he garners a game-changing bat for LF, SS, or C.
    Possible Suitors: Everyone, particularly New York (AL), Boston, Detroit, New York (AL), LA (NL), Atlanta
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
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  7. #6
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I wouldn't put those 2 into the same category. Stubbs has the higher ceiling while still likely possessing just as high if not higher floor. Heisey is a good little player all around but he is destined for the bench & 4th/5th OF. Sure he can start for ya if you don't have other options and give you a fair effort and ok production but not for months and years. He's in the Keppinger/Freel mode IMO, as a matter of fact he may be a combination of those 2.
    I think a Heisey/Dickerson platoon could give the Reds a cheap productive CF/lead-off combination for 3 or 4 years and would make Stubbs, who probably has the most trade value, available to deal to help fill organizational holes. Heisey won't be ready until 2010, but the Reds are stuck with Freel to be the RH half for this year anyway. Sean Henry, who would be a defensive downgrade more in the Freel mold than in the Dickerson, Stubbs, Heisey, category, would be on hand in the event of an injury or a washout and may be ready by the middle of 2009.

    Stubbs should be marketed heavily IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Agreed on both counts
    "You can learn little from victory. You can learn everything from defeat."
    -- Christy Matthewson
    "Show me a good loser and I'll show you an idiot."
    -- Leo Durocher

  9. #8
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Group 3 (Young Near Ready Starters) : Any two of Matt Maloney, Daryl Thompson, Ramon Ramirez, Micah Owings

    Group 5 (Middle to Late inning help) : Any one of Nick Massett, Josh Roenicke, or Carlos Fisher

    Adding in Bailey, I would keep these guys for another season or two to see how they continue to develop. Pitching is gold, it can buy what sometimes money and time cannot buy in major league baseball.

    With the manager and pitching coach that the Reds have, I am expecting some negative repeat performances from last years starting staff. I don't see automatic improvements or "bounce backs" like some do.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-26-2008 at 02:40 PM.

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    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    A plethora of prospects and everyone on the roster not named Bruce, Votto, Vasquez, or Cueto. I'd even listen for deal aimed at those Fantastic Four, but would have to be absolutely overwhelmed.

    Those that I'd actively shop include:

    Brandon Phillips
    His offensive potential is just that, and, while his glove is excellent, the place he occupies in Dusty's batting order and his penchant for struggling against RH plus his poor baseball IQ are harbingers of inconsistency, both year to year and at-bat to at-bat.

    He's also young and incredibly talented. His bat speed is outstanding, his overall speed is exceptional, and both his arm and glove grade out above 65. He has a history of delivering power and SBs at the major league level and he's in his prime years of production right now. His contract is fairly reasonable for now, but will be expensive as early as 2010.
    Possible Teams: Colorado, New York (NL), LA (NL), Seattle, Milwaukee, Chicago (AL), St. Louis, Baltimore.

    Francisco Cordero
    That contract is fat and teams with budgets shouldn't pay for expensive closers. They're too easy to find and/or develop. Too, it's not like Cordero is automatic. Were his numbers Papellbonian or his stuff Lidge-like, I could see the expenditure. It's good, but not that good.

    Too, if any year is a good one to move a closer, this one is it. The only closer of note on the market is FRod and a lot of high market teams are in need of someone willing to close games. Detroit, New York (NL), Chicago, LA of Anaheim, and perhaps Tampa will all be willing to shell out big dough and Cordero's salary may look reasonable to those teams just a closer away.

    Not only that, Cincinnati has, IMO, three guys capable of closing right now and will soon have an older veteran that can teach them. Both Burton and Roenicke have closer arms, and, as soon as Weathers re-signs, he becomes the stop-gap to those two young arms. Another, less talked about possibility is to convert Homer Bailey to the role and watch him use that 95 mph fastball and Uncle Charlie to do what Cordero did last season-- close about 70-75% of his games.
    Possible Suitors: New York (NL), LA (AL), Milwaukee, Detroit, Tampa?

    Aaron Harang
    This may suprise some, but now would be a fairly good time to shop the erstwhile ace. He really strugled last season, but I don't think that would hurt his trade value all that much. He turned it around late, and, should Harang be dealt, I'd look for a package of near-ready prosects or a game-changing bat in his stead. Not likely, IMO.
    Possible Suitors: Everyone, particularly New York (AL), Boston, Detroit, New York (AL), LA (NL), Atlanta

    Bronson Arroyo
    The thing about Arroyo is that you have to know what you have in him. Arroyo is, in two of the past three years, a solid #2 pitcher to many GMs. They see the high ERA, but his perephials (W/L record and IP) scream a guy who "knows how to win". He's also a veteran arm who's been around both leagues. That, to me, lends itself to a GM willing to part with young, untested but talented players for veteran-ness and a proven track record. Play on that and hope he garners a game-changing bat for LF, SS, or C.
    Possible Suitors: Everyone, particularly New York (AL), Boston, Detroit, New York (AL), LA (NL), Atlanta
    Guts, glory and foresight.



    Now bring back the missing parts with additional bonus players. Oh yeah, and ditch Freel, EE, and Gonzalez. Bring on OBP SLG and young enough to trade for more in the future.

    Now you're negotiating......
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-26-2008 at 03:00 PM.

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    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Adding in Bailey, I would keep these guys for another season or two to see how they continue to develop. Pitching is gold, it can buy what sometimes money and time cannot buy in major league baseball.

    With the manager and pitching coach that the Reds have, I am expecting some negative repeat performances from last years starting staff. I don't see automatic improvements or "bounce backs" like some do.
    Agree about potential for a negative development. Its why in the other portion of the post I named a 200 Inning starter in the Arroyo mold as a guy to target. If the Reds could get an Arroyo clone, it would provide a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and new guy. If the Reds deal Bailey and two of the other starters, it would still provide the other two for depth. I think dealing Bailey will probably be necessary to get something they need (like a SS). I would also expect a reclamation project or two to be signed to help the AAA rotation and could help the Reds down the road. I also really like the idea of signing Sergio Mitre (rehabbing to start the year) and Kevin Correia (stashed in the middle of the pen) to assist with the starter depth situation. The Reds need to be willing to move some of the near ready starters to get something else that they need and they can backfill for depth fairly cheaply IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Ditch EE? I sure hope not.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Calipari is not, nor has he ever been accused or "caught", cheating. He himself turned in one of his players (Camby) for dealing with an agent to get one Final Four overturned. The other is all on the NCAA and Rose. (IF Rose cheated.)
    "Cheering for Kentucky is like watching Star Wars and hoping Darth Vader chokes an ewok"


  13. #12
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by WilyMoROCKS View Post
    Ditch EE? I sure hope not.
    The Reds have too many holes to realistically trade anybody who plays a significant major league role. Phillips, EdE, Cordero, Burton, Arroyo and Harang aren't the 4 young lions, but if they are dealt, a replacement needs to come back in the return. EE probably provides the best combination of value that can be gotten back versus value lost. His lower salary and lack of long term deal probably make him attractive. He's also at the area with the most organizational depth, though no one is ready immediately unless we want to give Rosales a whirl at the spot. I would be willing to go with Rosales there if dealing EdE could fill a black hole elsewhere. Rosales at 3B and an average player at SS (presumably obtained in an EdE deal) is probably a better combination than EdE at 3B and any of the conglomoration of guys that the Reds have on hand for SS.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  14. #13
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think a Heisey/Dickerson platoon could give the Reds a cheap productive CF/lead-off combination for 3 or 4 years and would make Stubbs, who probably has the most trade value, available to deal to help fill organizational holes. Heisey won't be ready until 2010, but the Reds are stuck with Freel to be the RH half for this year anyway. Sean Henry, who would be a defensive downgrade more in the Freel mold than in the Dickerson, Stubbs, Heisey, category, would be on hand in the event of an injury or a washout and may be ready by the middle of 2009.

    Stubbs should be marketed heavily IMO.
    I don't have any problem with marketing Stubbs. But don't be deceived bye the #'s Heisey isn't in the same class with Stubbs. And for that matter I think Henry is a better stop gap solution than Heisey. Heisey has major league talent albeit that of a bench player but has a lot of polish which makes his game look more impressive than it is at the minor league level. Henry seemingly has more natural talent and athleticism than Heisey and with some of the polish. He has a higher ceiling IMO than Heisey does, not Stubbs high but higher than Heisey. And where is the defensive downgrade you speak of with regards to Henry?
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

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  15. #14
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
    Those that I'd actively shop include:

    Brandon Phillips
    His offensive potential is just that, and, while his glove is excellent, the place he occupies in Dusty's batting order and his penchant for struggling against RH plus his poor baseball IQ are harbingers of inconsistency, both year to year and at-bat to at-bat.
    With all due respect Scrap that's not even close to an accurate statement. I wouldn't characterize the guy's IQ as anything below top shelf. He may not appreciate the value of a walk from time to time but other than that he really has a very high baseball IQ. I wouldn't expect that you assume because he is at times overly aggressive on the basepaths that he is not being intelligent about it. In fact most times he is right to consider it but he just needs to pick his spots a tad better.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  16. #15
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
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    Re: who is our 'trade bait' ?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Agree about potential for a negative development. Its why in the other portion of the post I named a 200 Inning starter in the Arroyo mold as a guy to target. If the Reds could get an Arroyo clone, it would provide a rotation of Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto and new guy. If the Reds deal Bailey and two of the other starters, it would still provide the other two for depth. I think dealing Bailey will probably be necessary to get something they need (like a SS). I would also expect a reclamation project or two to be signed to help the AAA rotation and could help the Reds down the road. I also really like the idea of signing Sergio Mitre (rehabbing to start the year) and Kevin Correia (stashed in the middle of the pen) to assist with the starter depth situation. The Reds need to be willing to move some of the near ready starters to get something else that they need and they can backfill for depth fairly cheaply IMO.
    I was talking about the list of developing pitchers in general. Most of them need more experience at the level that they were at last year and stand to improve. I think that as of right now we could flaw pick them apart, and thus have to trade at a low return. Where as after next season they may have substantially improved value to either the Reds or as trade potential.

    The Reds need to be willing to move some of the near ready starters to get something else that they need and they can backfill for depth fairly cheaply IMO.
    Right now what could the Reds expect in return for them individually or as a part of a package? Assuming teams like Boston, Detroit, LA Dodgers, Texas and Baltimore might have what the Reds need to improve over a 74 win season next year?

    Agree about potential for a negative development.
    And IF, Harang and Arroyo flop again next year, or Cueto turns out to have been rushed? What will the value be for Harang and Arroyo with their ever climbing salaries? After we have traded off the "near ready starters" ?
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-26-2008 at 03:31 PM.


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