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Thread: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

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  1. #1
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Never too early in the offseason to start looking at these right?

    These are over on RedReporter.com
    Code:
    Hitter             Age    G   AB   H   2B 3B  HR   R  RBI   RC  RC27  BB   SO  SB  CS   Avg   OBP   Slg   OPS
    Bruce,Jay          22   159  587  174  30  4  35  94   90  109  6.75  46  145  12   7  .296  .351  .540  .891
    Dickerson,Chris    27   150  564  151  28  7  21  93   74   94  5.74  80  176  37  13  .268  .360  .454  .814
    Encarnacion,Edwin  26   148  539  150  37  1  25  83   85   91  6.05  56   95   4   2  .278  .356  .490  .846
    Freel,Ryan         33   100  327   87  17  2   3  48   21   40  4.19  33   56  19   8  .266  .342  .358  .700
    Hairston,Jerry     33    93  220   58  14  1   4  31   22   27  4.23  18   32   8   4  .264  .333  .391  .724
    Hanigan,Ryan       28    33  102   28   5  0   2  12   10   14  4.92  12   14   0   0  .275  .357  .382  .739
    Keppinger,Jeff     29   117  439  134  24  2   5  53   43   63  5.34  35   23   3   2  .305  .359  .403  .762
    Phillips,Brandon   28   154  601  158  30  4  21  84   76   80  4.60  39  101  22   9  .263  .313  .431  .744
    Votto,Joey         25   157  586  180  40  2  30  87  102  120  7.55  74  111  13   7  .307  .386  .536  .922
    
    Pitcher            Age   G  GS   IP   H   HR  BB   SO  HB   W   L   Pct  Sv   BR/9   ERA
    Affeldt,Jeremy      30  65   0   77   79   8  34   59   3   4   5  .444   0   13.6  4.39
    Arroyo,Bronson      32  32  32  212  222  27  64  152  10  11  12  .478   0   12.6  4.25
    Bray,Bill           26  61   0   42   43   4  17   46   1   2   2  .500   0   13.1  4.26
    Burton,Jared        28  42   0   45   44   4  20   40   2   2   3  .400   0   13.2  4.11
    Cordero,Francisco   34  67   0   68   60   5  29   77   2   4   3  .571  34   12.0  3.53
    Cueto,Johnny        23  28  28  154  155  24  52  151  14   8  10  .444   0   12.9  4.56
    Harang,Aaron        31  29  29  184  192  25  50  155   5  10  10  .500   0   12.1  4.11
    Lincoln,Mike        34  64   0   63   63   8  22   48   2   3   4  .429   0   12.4  4.13
    Majewski,Gary       29  44   0   45   55   4  17   28   3   2   3  .400   0   15.0  5.28
    Masset,Nick         27  35   0   57   71   6  25   40   3   2   4  .333   0   15.6  5.82
    Owings,Micah        26  25  21  118  124  13  43   91  11   6   7  .462   0   13.6  4.52
    Volquez,Edinson     25  30  30  192  176  20  95  191  10  11  11  .500   0   13.2  4.08
    Weathers,David      39  70   0   71   68   7  30   50   3   4   4  .500   0   12.8  4.00

  2. #2
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  3. #3
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I'd take those lines from Dickerson in a heartbeat. 21 HR's and a .360 OBP? Give me that. I liked Hanigan's rate stats until I saw just 102 at-bats.

  4. #4
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #5
    It's showtime! RedEye's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    I dunno. With Bruce, there were at least some statistical trends in the minors to back up the exaggerated prediction. I'd like to see an explanation for why Dickerson is a 20-30 player with over an .800 OPS next year. I don't think there is much precedent to suggest that would ever happen. James is frankly making CD out to be the second coming of a healthy Eric Davis and, while I wouldn't mind that in the least, I just don't see it happening in this world.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013

  6. #6
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    I thought James predicted Bruce would OPS around .950 last year, but your hyperbole is very appropriate in this situation.

  7. #7
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Doesn't look like he is too fond of the Reds pitching.

  8. #8
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

    The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  9. #9
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

    The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
    Or come from pitchers not yet on the team.

  10. #10
    Ripsnort wheels's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Johnny Footstool View Post
    Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

    The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.
    Dirigible!
    "We know we're better than this, but we can't prove it." - Tony Gwynn

  11. #11
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Wow, he's projection huge seasons from the young hitters. A .891 OPS for Bruce, .814 from Dickerson with 21 homers and 37 stolen bases, and a .922 OPS from Votto.

    But I also think he sells the pitching short. I think he's right on with Arroyo but off on the others. That's a solid season from Harang but I expect him to return to his 2005-2007 form. While I don't expect Cueto to develop into an ace just yet, I do think he'll take a step forward next season with at least a league average or better ERA and a strikeout per inning. He's also got Volquez taking a step back. I don't see that happening. Volquez's curveball seemed to improve throughout the season, plus he's now got a full season under his belt...I think he'll be as good, if not better than he was in 2008. As for the bullpen projections, I don't see Majewski and Lincoln on the 2009 team, especially Majewski. Burton has a 2.92 ERA in 101.2 career IP, there's no reason he can't repeat that. Affeldt should be better too.

    I like the hitting projections but I think he's far off on the pitching projections.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  12. #12
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Wow, he's projection huge seasons from the young hitters. A .891 OPS for Bruce, .814 from Dickerson with 21 homers and 37 stolen bases, and a .922 OPS from Votto.

    But I also think he sells the pitching short. I think he's right on with Arroyo but off on the others. That's a solid season from Harang but I expect him to return to his 2005-2007 form. While I don't expect Cueto to develop into an ace just yet, I do think he'll take a step forward next season with at least a league average or better ERA and a strikeout per inning. He's also got Volquez taking a step back. I don't see that happening. Volquez's curveball seemed to improve throughout the season, plus he's now got a full season under his belt...I think he'll be as good, if not better than he was in 2008. As for the bullpen projections, I don't see Majewski and Lincoln on the 2009 team, especially Majewski. Burton has a 2.92 ERA in 101.2 career IP, there's no reason he can't repeat that. Affeldt should be better too.

    I like the hitting projections but I think he's far off on the pitching projections.
    Your eyes/heart might tell you one thing, but the statistics are telling me something different. His 2008 xFIP was 4.02, so he was very lucky to have the ERA he had considering how atrocious the defense was. The defense might be improved in 2008, but he is still going to have to take a huge step forward to improve his true skill level to the point you are expecting. I would be very happy with 192 innings of a 4.08 ERA...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  13. #13
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    Your eyes/heart might tell you one thing, but the statistics are telling me something different. His 2008 xFIP was 4.02, so he was very lucky to have the ERA he had considering how atrocious the defense was. The defense might be improved in 2008, but he is still going to have to take a huge step forward to improve his true skill level to the point you are expecting. I would be very happy with 192 innings of a 4.08 ERA...
    That's true but a good # of his BR/9 this past season was due to a somewhat high # of BB's. I would think if he improves that aspect and the defense is improved that overall we should see an improvement, by how much is the question. Will his improved command lessen his baserunners but will he be around the zone so much that his HR allowed goes up? I think it's safe to say his #'s should improve if he does and the Reds improve that SS defense at least.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  14. #14
    Member klw's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by wheels View Post
    Dirigible!
    Better be careful they are making a comeback.
    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/05/bu...dirigible.html

    Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff.

  15. #15
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by klw View Post
    Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff.
    Who

    in their

    right

    mind...
    Suck it up cupcake.


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