2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

[dougdirt]

Never too early in the offseason to start looking at these right?

These are over on RedReporter.com

Hitter             Age    G   AB   H   2B 3B  HR   R  RBI   RC  RC27  BB   SO  SB  CS   Avg   OBP   Slg   OPS
Bruce,Jay          22   159  587  174  30  4  35  94   90  109  6.75  46  145  12   7  .296  .351  .540  .891
Dickerson,Chris    27   150  564  151  28  7  21  93   74   94  5.74  80  176  37  13  .268  .360  .454  .814
Encarnacion,Edwin  26   148  539  150  37  1  25  83   85   91  6.05  56   95   4   2  .278  .356  .490  .846
Freel,Ryan         33   100  327   87  17  2   3  48   21   40  4.19  33   56  19   8  .266  .342  .358  .700
Hairston,Jerry     33    93  220   58  14  1   4  31   22   27  4.23  18   32   8   4  .264  .333  .391  .724
Hanigan,Ryan       28    33  102   28   5  0   2  12   10   14  4.92  12   14   0   0  .275  .357  .382  .739
Keppinger,Jeff     29   117  439  134  24  2   5  53   43   63  5.34  35   23   3   2  .305  .359  .403  .762
Phillips,Brandon   28   154  601  158  30  4  21  84   76   80  4.60  39  101  22   9  .263  .313  .431  .744
Votto,Joey         25   157  586  180  40  2  30  87  102  120  7.55  74  111  13   7  .307  .386  .536  .922

Pitcher            Age   G  GS   IP   H   HR  BB   SO  HB   W   L   Pct  Sv   BR/9   ERA
Affeldt,Jeremy      30  65   0   77   79   8  34   59   3   4   5  .444   0   13.6  4.39
Arroyo,Bronson      32  32  32  212  222  27  64  152  10  11  12  .478   0   12.6  4.25
Bray,Bill           26  61   0   42   43   4  17   46   1   2   2  .500   0   13.1  4.26
Burton,Jared        28  42   0   45   44   4  20   40   2   2   3  .400   0   13.2  4.11
Cordero,Francisco   34  67   0   68   60   5  29   77   2   4   3  .571  34   12.0  3.53
Cueto,Johnny        23  28  28  154  155  24  52  151  14   8  10  .444   0   12.9  4.56
Harang,Aaron        31  29  29  184  192  25  50  155   5  10  10  .500   0   12.1  4.11
Lincoln,Mike        34  64   0   63   63   8  22   48   2   3   4  .429   0   12.4  4.13
Majewski,Gary       29  44   0   45   55   4  17   28   3   2   3  .400   0   15.0  5.28
Masset,Nick         27  35   0   57   71   6  25   40   3   2   4  .333   0   15.6  5.82
Owings,Micah        26  25  21  118  124  13  43   91  11   6   7  .462   0   13.6  4.52
Volquez,Edinson     25  30  30  192  176  20  95  191  10  11  11  .500   0   13.2  4.08
Weathers,David      39  70   0   71   68   7  30   50   3   4   4  .500   0   12.8  4.00

[RedEye]

Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.

[BRM]

I'd take those lines from Dickerson in a heartbeat. 21 HR's and a .360 OBP? Give me that. I liked Hanigan's rate stats until I saw just 102 at-bats.

[bucksfan2]

Doesn't look like he is too fond of the Reds pitching.

[Johnny Footstool]

Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.

[dougdirt]

Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.

Or come from pitchers not yet on the team.

[wheels]

Only one pitcher with an ERA under 4.00, and that's Cordero at an ugly 3.53.

The pitching staff is projected to go 72-78. I'm guessing the other 12 games will be suspended due to a players' strike or dirigible crash or something.

Dirigible!

[camisadelgolf]

I'm surprised by the optimism of the offense, but like bucksfan2 said, he doesn't seem to optimistic about the pitching. Mike Lincoln with the third-best WHIP on the staff? Yikes.

[TRF]

If Joey Votto puts up those numbers he better get some MVP consideration.

sorry, I meant "When".

[OnBaseMachine]

Wow, he's projection huge seasons from the young hitters. A .891 OPS for Bruce, .814 from Dickerson with 21 homers and 37 stolen bases, and a .922 OPS from Votto.

But I also think he sells the pitching short. I think he's right on with Arroyo but off on the others. That's a solid season from Harang but I expect him to return to his 2005-2007 form. While I don't expect Cueto to develop into an ace just yet, I do think he'll take a step forward next season with at least a league average or better ERA and a strikeout per inning. He's also got Volquez taking a step back. I don't see that happening. Volquez's curveball seemed to improve throughout the season, plus he's now got a full season under his belt...I think he'll be as good, if not better than he was in 2008. As for the bullpen projections, I don't see Majewski and Lincoln on the 2009 team, especially Majewski. Burton has a 2.92 ERA in 101.2 career IP, there's no reason he can't repeat that. Affeldt should be better too.

I like the hitting projections but I think he's far off on the pitching projections.

[wheels]

I think it's obvious that he's putting a lot of weight on the ballpark.

[klw]

Dirigible!

Better be careful they are making a comeback.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/05/bu...dirigible.html

Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff.

[fearofpopvol1]

If those pitching projects are on, the Reds should fully expect to finish last, maybe 2nd to last at best in the division.

[TRF]

Not much love for the pitchers. If Dickerson puts up those numbers it should silence those who are calling for the return of C Patt for CF and leadoff.

Who

in their

right

mind...

[OnBaseMachine]

Bronson Arroyo - 205 IP, 4.20-4.35 ERA, 160 K
Johnny Cueto - 180 IP, 4.40 ERA, 175 K
Aaron Harang - 210 IP, 3.85 ERA, 180 K
Edinson Volquez -200 IP, 2.75-3.20 ERA, 215 K

That's along the lines of what I expect from our four rotation locks. That's assuming the Reds improve their defense. I went with a safe projection on Cueto, I think he could do much better than that but he's still young and inexperienced and will battle some ups and downs.