Turn Off Ads?
Page 2 of 5 FirstFirst 12345 LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 71

Thread: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

  1. #16
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,504

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I think you also went safe on Harang. If he's completely healthy, a return to 200+ K's is not out of the question.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  2. Turn Off Ads?
  3. #17
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,460

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    176 strikeouts for Dickerson?
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  4. #18
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Colorado's eastern plains
    Posts
    11,232

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    176 strikeouts for Dickerson?
    Wow. I didn't catch that. He'll get booed mercilessly....by fans and the booth.

  5. #19
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,460

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Wow. I didn't catch that. He'll get booed mercilessly....by fans and the booth.

    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  6. #20
    Let's ride BRM's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Colorado's eastern plains
    Posts
    11,232

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
    I doubt Dusty would leave him there all year if he struck out that much.

  7. #21
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2000
    Location
    Amarillo, TX
    Posts
    13,504

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I'll throw this out as a possibility.

    Ramon Ramirez - 140 IP 4.30- 4.50 era 115 K's

    He had good peripherals in his 4 starts and one relief appearance which went 3 innings. He faced a playoff bound Milwaukee team twice in a week and beat them once, got a ND in which the Reds eventually won in another. Seems to have great poise.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  8. #22
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Guelph, ON
    Posts
    16,047

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Chip R View Post
    Indeed. However, 176 Ks is quite a lot from a leadoff hitter.
    This is a sentiment I've never understood. The leadoff hitter is going to come to the plate with the fewest men on base. That would suggest that there's the least value in merely putting the ball in play compared to other spots in the lineup. And since strikeouts also correlate with seeing more pitches, it would seem like it might not be a bad thing all.

    If there's anybody in my lineup who strikes out a ton, let it be the leadoff guy.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  9. #23
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    Cincinnati, OH
    Posts
    34,460

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    I doubt Dusty would leave him there all year if he struck out that much.

    Unless he became engaged to Dusty's daughter.
    The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.

    http://www.facebook.com/pages/Rally-...24872650873160

  10. #24
    Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2003
    Location
    Shelburne Falls, MA
    Posts
    10,146

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    I'll throw this out as a possibility.

    Ramon Ramirez - 140 IP 4.30- 4.50 era 115 K's

    He had good peripherals in his 4 starts and one relief appearance which went 3 innings. He faced a playoff bound Milwaukee team twice in a week and beat them once, got a ND in which the Reds eventually won in another. Seems to have great poise.
    Absolutely. Unless Ramirez loses the touch on his changeup, he should be starting for some major league team next year (i.e., I wouldn't be surprised if teams see how willing the Reds would be to deal him). Like Dickerson, he showed very well in his time with the Reds last year -- no clunkers, able to pitch out of jams, athletic in the field and at the plate, unafraid. I like him a lot.
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

  11. #25
    Member Spring~Fields's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Posts
    8,630

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Bronson Arroyo - 205 IP, 4.20-4.35 ERA, 160 K
    Johnny Cueto - 180 IP, 4.40 ERA, 175 K
    Aaron Harang - 210 IP, 3.85 ERA, 180 K
    Edinson Volquez -200 IP, 2.75-3.20 ERA, 215 K

    That's along the lines of what I expect from our four rotation locks. That's assuming the Reds improve their defense. I went with a safe projection on Cueto, I think he could do much better than that but he's still young and inexperienced and will battle some ups and downs.
    Looks like James and his projection is indicating that it might be a good time to trade Harang and Arroyo and their growing contracts for the missing pieces and additional pitching. If he is right, the contracts for those two won't be very attractive in 2010.

    I wonder if Jocketty and his staff have Arroyo and Harang projecting to do about the same next year?

    Maybe James factored in the manager and pitching coach when it came to Cueto?

  12. #26
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    34,844

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    There's no way I would trade Harang unless the Reds receive a huge return. Besides, these are only projections. I fully expect Harang to return to his 2005-2007 form.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  13. #27
    Member Jpup's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Southern KY
    Posts
    6,967

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    There's no way I would trade Harang unless the Reds receive a huge return. Besides, these are only projections. I fully expect Harang to return to his 2005-2007 form.
    I think Harang will win the Cy Young next year.
    "My mission is to be the ray of hope, the guy who stands out there on that beautiful field and owns up to his mistakes and lets people know it's never completely hopeless, no matter how bad it seems at the time. I have a platform and a message, and now I go to bed at night, sober and happy, praying I can be a good messenger." -Josh Hamilton

  14. #28
    Member
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Posts
    4,564

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Seems like we should trade BP if we can get somebody else to overvalue him.

  15. #29
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Posts
    18,996

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by RedEye View Post
    Wow. James thinks Dickerson is going to go wild! If that's true, the Reds definitely have their CF situation solved. Not a bad sophomore season for Bruce and Votto either.
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  16. #30
    No half measures, Walter RedEye's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Posts
    8,122

    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    James has a crush on him for some reason. Then again he thought Bruce would OPS 1.800 last season too...
    I dunno. With Bruce, there were at least some statistical trends in the minors to back up the exaggerated prediction. I'd like to see an explanation for why Dickerson is a 20-30 player with over an .800 OPS next year. I don't think there is much precedent to suggest that would ever happen. James is frankly making CD out to be the second coming of a healthy Eric Davis and, while I wouldn't mind that in the least, I just don't see it happening in this world.
    "Iíll kind of have a foot on the back of my own butt. Thatís just how I do things.Ē -- Bryan Price, 10/22/2013


Turn Off Ads?

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most importantly, enjoy yourselves!


RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball


Contact us: Boss | GIK | BCubb2003 | dabvu2498 | Gallen5862 | LexRedsFan | Plus Plus | RedlegJake | redsfan1995 | The Operator | Tommyjohn25