Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 10-28-2008 at 10:14 PM.
I miss Adam Dunn.
With that said, I do think his control will improve next year.
Last edited by fearofpopvol1; 10-28-2008 at 11:05 PM.
It's hard to believe essentially every pitcher gets worse while the defense gets exceedingly better in the outfield, SS, and most likely 3b and 1b than it was in 2008.
Baseball is like church. Many attend, few understand
It wouldn't surprise me if Volquez never posted an ERA below 3.50 again.
At issue is his true skill level (an important baseline for predicting his future).
Here's a breakdown of his season using the "half" split.
First, there is no doubt that Volquez took a step forward this season as he established himself as a legitimate major league starter.Code:Volquez 2008 Season IP FIP ERA K/9 BB/9 HR/9 H/9 BABIP GB% FB% LD% HR/FB xFIP 1st 117.2 3.19 2.30 9.68 4.30 0.38 6.91 0.290 0.53 0.29 0.18 5.7 3.70 2nd 78.1 4.19 4.61 9.22 4.26 1.04 8.87 0.329 0.38 0.41 0.22 10.3 4.28
That said, his season was a tale of two seasons. Clearly his first half was a hyperbolic one when just looking at his ERA and his second half, well, not so much. That said, looking at his peripherals, he was not a dramatically different fellow but for a couple notable exceptions. Upon closer look, his first half was driven substantially by an extremely low HR/FB rate for a starter (typically this parameter is considered out of control of a pitcher and deviations from 10-11% are expected to regress). He also demonstrated an ability to induce groundballs that was significantly higher than his career to date.
Basically in the second half his HR/FB% and GB% regressed back to expected levels. Mix in half a K less per 9 and a mild swing in his BABIP and not surprisingly, his ERA jumped dramatically.
So the point? I think Volquez's true skill level is probably captured by his "half split" xFIPs, i.e. it's somewhere between 3.70 and 4.30. Right now, it seems reasonable to split the difference and expect a xFIP of 4.00.
From that standpoint, I think an ERA of 4.00 isn't a shocking projection but one of 2.75-3.20 would be highly unlikely.
I also see no reason to expect Volquez to significantly decrease his walk rate moving forward.
"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner
Personally, I don't care if someone like Dunn or Ryan Howard strike out 175-200 times. They are power hitters and most power hitters (Pujols being an exception) are going to swing and miss a lot. It's been that way since Babe Ruth. But I'd be concerned if my leadoff hitter is striking out that much even if he has a .360 OBP. He's making outs and not getting on base. .360 is very good but if he can turn some of those strikeouts into base hits and/or walks, we could have a monster on our hands. Of course if he turns those strikeouts into pop-ups and grounders to 2nd, then it doesn't make a whole helluva lot of difference.
See, that's why Bill James is a genius. Like me, he knows the Reds need to bring Javy back. He doesn't include him on that list because he's hoping the Reds deem him insignificant enough not to bring back and James can advise his employer to pick up Javy as a free agent.
Last edited by Chip R; 10-29-2008 at 09:32 AM.
The Rally Onion wants 150 fans before Opening Day.
He K's a lot of batters. He's had major league success. I see his next few years in the 3.50-4.00 era range.
I think we'll all take that.
Suck it up cupcake.
Again, aside from comfort with the stereotype of the fast, slap-hitting leadoff guy, make the argument that it is particularly bad for a leadoff guy to make the outs he makes via strikeouts instead of on balls in play -- assuming a given level of AVG/OBP/SLG.
To me, a guy batting in the heart of the order with men on base is doing more "harm" with a strikeout (relative to a ball in play out) than a leadoff guy. The real question here, as was suggested, is whether Dickerson can sustain an OBP of .360 while striking out that much. Unless he keeps hitting for big power, it's going to be tough.
Last edited by RedsManRick; 10-29-2008 at 10:27 AM.
Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.
When Dickerson puts the ball in play it allows him to use one of his greatest asset, his speed. If he strikeouts he doesn't give himself the chance to beat out a throw or reach base by error.
BTW... James has nothing to do with the projections, they're compiled by infosolutions and Bill's name is just on the book.
The projections are based upon his original work. He still reviews them and insures there are no outliers.
Someone referred to park factors earlier and i think it applies in the case of these projections. Iirc, they are based on 3 year projections and over 3 years the park inflates the numbers of the offense (especially related to LH power hitters).
Where I disagree is that I think he's very capable of improving going forward. The guy is only 24. Yes, EV's true skill level right now is just that of an above average SP (not that it's a bad thing). But many eventual top of the rotation starters were something less when they were 24.