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Thread: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

  1. #61
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Volquez is a ground ball guy and the Reds had a left side with Keppinger and EdE there. I'm sure there were more than a few baserunners allowed as a result. I'm also fairly certain those extra runners contributed to the fatigue factor that many are pointing to in the second half. No matter, if his ERA is in the 4 range instead of 3, that is still pretty much number 2 starter territory in a park like GABP. Pretty much what I expected him to become when he was acquired. What's the worry?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  3. #62
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    No matter, if his ERA is in the 4 range instead of 3, that is still pretty much number 2 starter territory in a park like GABP. Pretty much what I expected him to become when he was acquired. What's the worry?
    No worry at all, Volquez looks like he'll give the Reds at least five years of above average starting pitching. That's really valuable. It's just not the same as the 3.00 ERA guy some are expecting him to be next year.

  4. #63
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Volquez is far from a finished product IMO. He's got some of the best stuff in baseball. Not too many guys have a mid-90's fastball with great movement, a plus-plus changeup, and solid curveball that continues to improve. I think what separates him from being a truly elite pitcher is his control, and that's something that should improve IMO. He tends to nibble at times. If he can cut down on a few walks he'll take the next step forward. Even if he doesn't, he's still an ace in my book.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #64
    Start the Reactor! *BaseClogger*'s Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Volquez is a ground ball guy and the Reds had a left side with Keppinger and EdE there. I'm sure there were more than a few baserunners allowed as a result. I'm also fairly certain those extra runners contributed to the fatigue factor that many are pointing to in the second half. No matter, if his ERA is in the 4 range instead of 3, that is still pretty much number 2 starter territory in a park like GABP. Pretty much what I expected him to become when he was acquired. What's the worry?
    That's not what the stats say. The fielding-independent numbers say he got pretty lucky with the defense...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

  6. #65
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    That's not what the stats say. The fielding-independent numbers say he got pretty lucky with the defense...
    BABIP was .306. He had a 9.46 K/9 and 0.64 HR/9. He wasn't all that lucky where hits were concerned which is really where the defense comes into play. As a minor leaguer in 2006 and 2007 his BABIP was normally in the .270 range. If a better defense would drop that BABIP to say .285 that would account for 16 baserunners over the season.

    I don't know the exact formula for FIP, nor do I care much, but I'm guessing the HR/FB% and LOB% have more to do with the disparity between ERA and FIP than defensive efficiency in Volquez case. That BABIP says that the defense wasn't helping him all that much, but probably didn't hurt as much as I assumed. Still 15 or 16 baserunners could mean the difference between pushing the pitch count to alarming levels and taking him out before he gets there a few times over the course of the year and those last few incremental pitches are really where the difference occurs as far as fatigue and effect on his next start goes.

    No matter what else occurred, if all other things are equal, replacing EdE and Keppinger with actual major league caliber defenders would have a positive impact on Volquez' numbers and workload.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  7. #66
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Volquez is far from a finished product IMO. He's got some of the best stuff in baseball. Not too many guys have a mid-90's fastball with great movement, a plus-plus changeup, and solid curveball that continues to improve. I think what separates him from being a truly elite pitcher is his control, and that's something that should improve IMO. He tends to nibble at times. If he can cut down on a few walks he'll take the next step forward. Even if he doesn't, he's still an ace in my book.
    I'm of the same train of thought. However, I didn't see Volquez' wildness a function of him nibbling, but rather he's not quite there yet, meaning he was missing really bad at times when he couldn't help it. I think he'll improve, moreso on the location of his FB. If he can repeat his tailing 95 mph FB to lefties on the inside corner to go along with his Bugs Bunny change-up, he'll do just fine for himself.

  8. #67
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'm of the same train of thought. However, I didn't see Volquez' wildness a function of him nibbling, but rather he's not quite there yet, meaning he was missing really bad at times when he couldn't help it. I think he'll improve, moreso on the location of his FB. If he can repeat his tailing 95 mph FB to lefties on the inside corner to go along with his Bugs Bunny change-up, he'll do just fine for himself.
    Oh I agree, he can be very wild at times, but there's other times when I thought he would nibble some, especially against bad hitters. I also agree with ya on his fastball...when he's locating that pitch inside he's nearly unhittable. When he gains more consistent command of that pitch is when he'll take another huge step forward IMO.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  9. #68
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    Oh I agree, he can be very wild at times, but there's other times when I thought he would nibble some, especially against bad hitters. I also agree with ya on his fastball...when he's locating that pitch inside he's nearly unhittable. When he gains more consistent command of that pitch is when he'll take another huge step forward IMO.
    That really is a fun pitch to watch. You see him throw it, see the batter freeze, and as you say out loud, "Got him," the ump rings him up.

    Volquez really is a great pitcher to watch. His wildness is frustrating at times, but if he can harness it just a little bit more, he's going to be a perennial Cy Young candidate. The way he baffles some of the best hitters to currently play the game (Utley, Pujols, Howard, et. al.) with his insanely good change-up really is a spectacle to behold.

    What's amazing is that Cueto's stuff might be even better.

  10. #69
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    I'm of the same train of thought. However, I didn't see Volquez' wildness a function of him nibbling, but rather he's not quite there yet, meaning he was missing really bad at times when he couldn't help it. I think he'll improve, moreso on the location of his FB. If he can repeat his tailing 95 mph FB to lefties on the inside corner to go along with his Bugs Bunny change-up, he'll do just fine for himself.
    I view it a little differently. What I saw with Volquez this past season is that he wasn't going to give in. If he had runners on base and an 2-0 count he wasn't going to give him a pitch to hit. He was going to nibble then go after the next batter with a fresh count. Its kind of like saying your not going to beat me, Im going to make the guy behind you beat me. The problem I foresee with this train of thought is that it builds his pitch count up.

  11. #70
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    BABIP was .306. He had a 9.46 K/9 and 0.64 HR/9. He wasn't all that lucky where hits were concerned which is really where the defense comes into play. As a minor leaguer in 2006 and 2007 his BABIP was normally in the .270 range. If a better defense would drop that BABIP to say .285 that would account for 16 baserunners over the season.

    I don't know the exact formula for FIP, nor do I care much, but I'm guessing the HR/FB% and LOB% have more to do with the disparity between ERA and FIP than defensive efficiency in Volquez case. That BABIP says that the defense wasn't helping him all that much, but probably didn't hurt as much as I assumed. Still 15 or 16 baserunners could mean the difference between pushing the pitch count to alarming levels and taking him out before he gets there a few times over the course of the year and those last few incremental pitches are really where the difference occurs as far as fatigue and effect on his next start goes.

    No matter what else occurred, if all other things are equal, replacing EdE and Keppinger with actual major league caliber defenders would have a positive impact on Volquez' numbers and workload.
    Here is one way his '08 could be interpreted (and this is a bit of a broad stroke): Volquez's unsustainable HR/FB% in the first half allowed his ERA to overcome the defense while the regression of his HR/FB% in the second half no longer masked the effect of the defense. Homeruns are big (another way of interpreting his season). There is more going on than just HRs (his first half ERA would've still been about 3.00 pre ASB by adding the runs associated with a league average HR rate though who knows how those extra HRs would've impacted later events).

    This is why ERA isn't a great indicator of pitcher performance. Volquez generally pitched similarly before and after the all star break based upon the peripherals listed in a post above but randomness dramatically influenced the results.
    Last edited by jojo; 10-30-2008 at 08:43 AM.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #71
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: 2009 Bill James Projections for the Reds

    They should have Volquez teaching the change, not Soto. I'm only half kidding.
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