Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Thompson, like Lotzkar, is too fragile for me to get too excited about at this point. I'd probably put 15 more guys ahead of him. Hope I'm wrong.
"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini
I'm sticking with Duran. He has as much as hype as anyone in the system.
Dickerson struck out more than one third of his official (non-walk) at bats. That's a very high strikeout rate. It's a higher strikeout rate than Ryan Howard who fanned 199 times.
A player can, of course, compensate for a high strikeout rate by producing in his non-strikeout at bats.
But with that many strikeouts it becomes harder to have good numbers overall. If you make contact less than two thirds of the time there are just fewer opportunities to produce.
Dickerson did produce well in his non-strikeout at bats while with the Reds last year. The question is whether he can sustain that. It's a big challenge for him.
This pattern can be helped if Dickerson is platooned. Presumably his strikeout numbers will be better if he doesn't have to face lefty pitching.
Last edited by Kc61; 10-29-2008 at 02:17 PM.
I voted Fransisco. He has more true power potential than any player in the Minors for the Reds. Yes he does K ALOT and walk very little, but he did improve his K rate a touch this year. In 2008 it was 1K in every 4.2 ab's. In 2007 it was 1k per every 3.3 ab's. I say that's an impressive improvement especially in a pitchers leauge. Also if you dig deeper, he averaged a extra base hit every 10.68 ab in Dayton vs 8.32 ab's in Sarasota a MAJOR jump once again in a pitcher's leauge with large parks. He is progressing. Next year in a hitters leauge he might reduce that power number to the 6.9 to 7.4 range. He will hit 28 to 37 HR next year if he continues these trends while only striking out around 120 times. I say that is a prospect.
For the Record... Howard strikes out every 3.07 ab's and has a EBH every 7.82.
Mark Reynolds split is every 2.64 is a K and every 9.14 a EBH.
Dunn is 3.15 is a K and every 8.21 is a EBH.
Also he has had 4 straight 2 hit games in the Dominican League...
Last edited by nemesis; 10-29-2008 at 10:51 AM.
When you consider his free swinging tendencies, Francisco seems to make a lot of contact. His BA is always pretty good (.277 last year) and his Ks are down. He also generally has a high RBI number with correlates to his ability to make contact with men on base.
The trick for this prospect is to improve his walk rate even slightly. If he can OBP .320, given the rest of the package, he is a top five prospect in this organization. Even at the current level, I would vote for him in the 5-7 range.
Francisco drew two walks in a game last night and is now hitting .304/.347/.543 - .890 OPS in the Dominican Winter League. Those are his first two walks in 46 atbats, so that's nice to see. If he can draw just a few more walks per month and get his total up around 40 he could be a force. His power is legit - he's easily got 35-40 homer power but his plate discipline will the key to him tapping into that power at the major league level. He's got a chance to be the first position player from the Reds Dominican Academy to make an impact at the major league level in what will hopefully be a tradition with Juan Duran and Junior Arias following.
Last edited by OnBaseMachine; 10-29-2008 at 12:39 PM.
I miss Adam Dunn.
I wouldn't have a problem platooning Dickerson in CF as long as a competent RH option can be found to pair up with him.
The three top SP remaining, with their numbers this year in Louisville:
Maloney (age 24): 8.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Ramirez (age 25): 8.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9
Thompson (age 22): 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 (disclaimer: small sample with only 45 IP)
I'd rather see him get 500+ PA's and let the 4th OF spell someone in need of a day off.
And you said Platoon CF or 4th OF. I see him with a higher ceiling than that.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head