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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

Voters
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  • Zach Cozart

    1 0.86%
  • Chris Dickerson

    16 13.79%
  • Danny Dorn

    11 9.48%
  • Juan Duran

    21 18.10%
  • Carlos Fisher

    0 0%
  • Juan Francisco

    8 6.90%
  • Chris Heisey

    1 0.86%
  • Matt Maloney

    1 0.86%
  • Devin Mesoraco

    5 4.31%
  • Ramon Ramirez

    2 1.72%
  • Yorman Rodriguez

    4 3.45%
  • Josh Roenicke

    4 3.45%
  • Zach Stewart

    5 4.31%
  • Daryl Thompson

    33 28.45%
  • Justin Turner

    4 3.45%
  • Pedro Viola

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

  1. #31
    Worst Behavior. reds44's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    Also, he is not just a power hitter. He was second in his league in hits, and in the top ten in almost every category. Also the best defensive third baseman in his league.
    When you almost never walk, you are going to rack up the hits. If/when he starts to walk more, he won't get as many hits.

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  3. #32
    So Long Uncle Joe BoydsOfSummer's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Should everyone that has inferior performance against one hand or the other be platooned?
    Yes. But it never happens in the real world.
    0 Value Over Replacement Poster


    "Sit over here next to Johnathan (Bench)...sit right here, he's smart."--Sparky Anderson

  4. #33
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    I understand it just fine. I just don't like pigeon-holing players. Why platoon him and not Phillips? Should everyone that has inferior performance against one hand or the other be platooned?

    I'd rather see him get 500+ PA's and let the 4th OF spell someone in need of a day off.

    And you said Platoon CF or 4th OF. I see him with a higher ceiling than that.

    When you platoon a righty hitter like Phillips he hardly ever plays and you lose his defense for most of the games.

    When you platoon a lefty outfielder like Dickerson he gets to play most of the time because most pitching is right handed.

  5. #34
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    I voted Dickerson and I think he is better than alot of people give him credit for. I didn't see much of him him in the minor but I did see all of his at bats with the Reds I know it was only 100+ ABs but I came away impressed. He has a very smooth swing and is quick to the ball. He worked the count well, waited for a pitch to drive and did just that most of the time.

    He also has a plus golve in Center. He does need to work on his contact a little but I have no doubt that he can put up a line of .280/.365/.485 and play Gold glove defense.
    Last edited by Lockdwn11; 10-29-2008 at 06:02 PM.

  6. #35
    Vavasor TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    When you platoon a righty hitter like Phillips he hardly ever plays and you lose his defense for most of the games.

    When you platoon a lefty outfielder like Dickerson he gets to play most of the time because most pitching is right handed.
    If you don't platoon him he might develop into a better all around hitter.

    in 2008 at AAA, Dickerson sported a .356 OBP against LH pitchers. I'll take that from my leadoff hitter.
    Last edited by TRF; 10-29-2008 at 06:02 PM.
    Suck it up cupcake.

  7. #36
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    I went with Danny Dorn over Thompson this round, he hit 21 hr's in the final 3 months of the season and he's had solid production at every level he's been at. I think he would benefit from a full season at AAA to face as much left-handed pitching as possible because that the weakest part of his offensive game. He could easily be one of the best reds draft picks in terms of value since I've followed them (32nd round). Juan Francisco is drawing raves about his power but Dorn could be a 20-30 hr guy in the majors plus he's already showed solid plate discipline.

  8. #37
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by summerplight View Post
    I went with Danny Dorn over Thompson this round, he hit 21 hr's in the final 3 months of the season and he's had solid production at every level he's been at. I think he would benefit from a full season at AAA to face as much left-handed pitching as possible because that the weakest part of his offensive game. He could easily be one of the best reds draft picks in terms of value since I've followed them (32nd round). Juan Francisco is drawing raves about his power but Dorn could be a 20-30 hr guy in the majors plus he's already showed solid plate discipline.
    I agree with this logic. How soon people forget, Dorn was so impressive at Billings, he skipped Dayton, to Sarasota, and was promoted to Chattanooga. He would have made it to Louisville in'08 but for the injury incurred early, doing what? (Diving for a ball in the outfield). He projects a .280 avg., and 30-35 HRs. Bring 'im on..................

  9. #38
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by nemesis View Post
    I voted Fransisco. He has more true power potential than any player in the Minors for the Reds. Yes he does K ALOT and walk very little, but he did improve his K rate a touch this year. In 2008 it was 1K in every 4.2 ab's. In 2007 it was 1k per every 3.3 ab's. I say that's an impressive improvement especially in a pitchers leauge. Also if you dig deeper, he averaged a extra base hit every 10.68 ab in Dayton vs 8.32 ab's in Sarasota a MAJOR jump once again in a pitcher's leauge with large parks. He is progressing. Next year in a hitters leauge he might reduce that power number to the 6.9 to 7.4 range. He will hit 28 to 37 HR next year if he continues these trends while only striking out around 120 times. I say that is a prospect.

    For the Record... Howard strikes out every 3.07 ab's and has a EBH every 7.82.

    Mark Reynolds split is every 2.64 is a K and every 9.14 a EBH.

    Dunn is 3.15 is a K and every 8.21 is a EBH.


    Also he has had 4 straight 2 hit games in the Dominican League...
    It is hard to predict ML K rates from minor league stats. I looked at minor league BB and K rates for Dunn, EE, and Vlad Guerrero at age 20. This included A, A+, and AA since progression differed among these players.

    AD 560 AB; 124 BB; 132 K
    EE 460 ; 46 ; 76
    VG 497 ; 33 ; 55

    VG is a notorious bad ball hitter, but he has consistenly made contact right up through the ML level. He has been a hard man to walk, but also a hard man to strike out given his power.
    Both AD and EE showed increased K rates at the ML level. Both, however, had decent BB rates in the minors.

    By contrast, JF had 516; 19; 123.

    This suggests to me that unless JF develops much better plate discipline, he is likely to be eaten up by ML pitching. The key is increasing the BB rate. K's will come down. I agree that his upside is tremendous. I hope he makes the improvements needed. His athleticism suggests he has a good chance to do it. Until I see evidence of improvement in the BB area, however, I would be reluctant to include him among the first 10 prospects.

  10. #39
    Member kheidg-'s Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RED VAN HOT View Post
    It is hard to predict ML K rates from minor league stats. I looked at minor league BB and K rates for Dunn, EE, and Vlad Guerrero at age 20. This included A, A+, and AA since progression differed among these players.

    AD 560 AB; 124 BB; 132 K
    EE 460 ; 46 ; 76
    VG 497 ; 33 ; 55

    VG is a notorious bad ball hitter, but he has consistenly made contact right up through the ML level. He has been a hard man to walk, but also a hard man to strike out given his power.
    Both AD and EE showed increased K rates at the ML level. Both, however, had decent BB rates in the minors.

    By contrast, JF had 516; 19; 123.

    This suggests to me that unless JF develops much better plate discipline, he is likely to be eaten up by ML pitching. The key is increasing the BB rate. K's will come down. I agree that his upside is tremendous. I hope he makes the improvements needed. His athleticism suggests he has a good chance to do it. Until I see evidence of improvement in the BB area, however, I would be reluctant to include him among the first 10 prospects.
    Well said...

  11. #40
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Bump. The voting seems to be down in this poll. Thompson has only a nine vote lead over Duran. If that stays the same we may have to do a run-off vote depending on what you guys think.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  12. #41
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Why?

    The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two

  13. #42
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruceFan View Post
    Why?

    The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two
    58 of the 105 voters have voted for someone other than Daryl Thompson or Juan Duran, the two leading vote getters. That's more than half the voters. I'd like to see what those other voters think before we declare a winner and move on.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  14. #43
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    I'm going to go ahead and predict Thompson 57 (+or-4) over Duran 48 (+or-4) in the run-off.

  15. #44
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruceFan View Post
    Why?

    The winner is the winner even if it's only by a vote or two
    don't make me pull out my electoral college stick.

  16. #45
    Resident PED Expert nemesis's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #7 prospect?

    Just for referance even though he isn't going to win... Francisco lines in his last 2 game is:

    Oct 28 @ESC .500 4 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 1 0 0
    Oct 29 @EST .600 5 3 3 0 0 2 6 2 0 0 0


    So thats 4 walks 5 hits 2 HR 8 RBI's and 1 K in his last 13 AB's... I think the light is starting to come on for this kid. If he could just turn that corner, him Soto, Alonso, Frazier, Bruce and Votto would be sick at full potential. Also add Stubbs to that equation and you just need a SS and a catcher.


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