Last Week: 10-4
Record Picking Redskins Games: 5-3
Against the Spread: 16-13-2
Lock of the Week: 4-3-1
Last Week's Pats: I was on fire during the early games on Sunday, going 9-0 and missing both the final scores of the Redskins-Lions game and Cardinals-Panthers game by a total of one point. I also correctly predicted the Saints to beat the Chargers in a shootout and for the Dolphins to upset the Bills.
Last Week's Apologies: I quickly went downhill after the early games, as I missed on the Steelers beating the Giants and missed badly on the Seahawks-49ers game. I also blew my lock of the week on Monday Night, as the Titans easily covered the spread against the Colts.
This Week's Picks:
New York Jets at Buffalo: Bills fans must loathe me. I haven't shown Buffalo much respect in my picks this year, and it's not because I don't think they are a solid team. But once again, I'm smelling upset in a Bills game. By no means am I in love with the Jets (their defense was pathetic last week), but I'm going with a gut feeling here.
Jets 23, Bills 20
Detroit at Chicago: I don't think the Bears will roll over the Lions quite like they did in Detroit a few weeks ago, but this game will not be close late.
Bears 27, Lions 17
Jacksonville at Cincinnati: I've reached a verdict on the Jaguars: They are a poorly coached team. Jack Del Rio is not doing a good job down there-- their inconsistency points to shaky leadership from the top. Having said that, the Bengals are just what the doctor ordered for a struggling team.
Jaguars 28, Bengals 14
Baltimore at Cleveland: The Browns seem to have gotten back on track a bit and I think they will avenge their earlier loss to the Ravens.
Browns 19, Ravens 16
Tampa Bay at Kansas City: The Chiefs fought hard in their loss to the Jets last week, and I think Herm Edwards is probably a good coach to keep that team motivated. But the bottom line is that they just aren't any good. The Tampa defense will smother them this week.
Bucs 24, Chiefs 9
Houston at Minnesota: Quietly, the Texans have run off three wins in a row. Houston my pre-season surprise team and they let me down during the first quarter of the season, so I'm a tad gun shy to pick them on the road at this point. So, I'm going to weenie-out and take the Vikings, although I think this is close to a 50/50 game.
Vikings 27, Texans 24
Arizona at St. Louis: I think this is close to a must-win game for Arizona if they want to be able to look themselves in the mirror right now. If they lose to St. Louis, they will drop to 1-4 on the road, making it difficult to take them very seriously. And this won't be an easy task, as the Rams are playing good football right now. I'm going to roll the dice and say Kurt Warner finds a way to lead his team to victory at his old stomping grounds.
Cardinals 30, Rams 24
Green Bay at Tennessee: I missed badly last week, picking the Titans to go down to the Colts. I'm sure some will view that choice and my pick this week as a slap in the face to the Tennessee, but I really do respect them and view them as a very viable Super Bowl threat. But it's tough to win em' all in the NFL, and I like the Packers coming off a bye week, playing a team on short rest.
Packers 17, Titans 14
Miami at Denver: The Broncos defense is so bad that they could lose to anyone at any time right now. But I'm casting my vote this week in their favor, thinking that Jay Cutler gets back on track after a miserable game in New England his last time out.
Broncos 31, Dolphins 24
Dallas at New York Giants: It's funny, with the way things are in the NFL right now, I can see almost any team winning any game, but for some reason, I just can't see Brad Johnson leading the Cowboys to victory at the Meadowlands this week. I'd pick the Giants 10 out 10 times in this match-up right now.
Giants 27, Cowboys 16
Atlanta at Oakland: I wasn't surprised the Raiders lost week in Baltimore, but I was a bit surprised at how poorly they played. Even though they were putrid last week, I'm picking them to win at home, as I see Atlanta regressing to the mean a bit.
Raiders 20, Falcons 17
Philadelphia at Seattle: This is another game that tempts me to choose an upset. Seattle has been horrid all season, but they seem to find a few things that worked last week in San Francisco. If Matt Hasselbeck was healthy, I think I'd lead towards the Seahawks, but I'm not sure Seneca Wallace can get it done against a tough Philly squad.
Eagles 23, Seahawks 17
New England at Indianapolis: Picking the Colts this week because it could be argued that a loss virtually ends their season in terms of serious contention. I'm not sure they are going to let that happen quite yet.
Colts 29, Patriots 17
Pittsburgh at Washington: Jim Zorn admitted this week that the Redskins are worn down both physically and mentally right now. Although no one likes to admit such things, their 6-2 record and the fact that they are playing an AFC team this week, makes this game far from a must-win. I also think this is just a plain bad match-up for the Redskins, who probably won't be able to count on another 120 yard performance from Clinton Portis this week. Look for the Steelers to win a rugged one.
Steelers 20, Redskins 16
4 To Score
Lock of the Week:
Browns (even) vs. Ravens: Really like the Browns straight-up here.
2. Jets (+5.5) at Bills. I could certainly see the Bills winning the game, but I think it's close.
3. Packers (+6) at Titans. Tennessee made a fool out of me last week, so I'll give them another chance.
4. Jaguars (-7) at Bengals. Not sure Ryan Fitzpatrick can keep the Bengals that close.