Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

[hippie07]

I just wanted to take another spin on "You be the GM" exercise.
I've been reading some RZers prediction on the payroll increase, and it seems possible that we could be looking at a payroll of around $85mil next season.

Filling out the 25-man roster w/ what we currently have looks like this:
Pitchers
Harang - 11mil
Volquez - 0.4mil
Cueto - 0.4mil
Arroyo -9.5mil

Ramirez -0.4mil
Owings -0.4mil
Masset -0.4mil
Cordero - 12mil
Bray - 0.4mil
Burton - 0.4mil

Infielders
Gonzalez - 5.375mil
Phillips - 4.75mil
Freel - 4mil
Encarnacion - arb eligible 3mil?
Keppinger - 0.4mil
Votto - 0.4mil

Outfielders
Hopper - 0.4mil
Bruce - 0.4mil
Dickerson - 0.4mil

Catchers
Hanigan - 0.4mil


Manager
Baker 3.5mil

Considering these players are set in stone (which they may not be). That leaves the following areas of need/spots to fill:
2 Bullpen Arms
1 Catcher
2 Position players

The total 25-man roster salaries (plus Baker) are: 58.325mil. I know that there are some expenses that I'm missing here, but I've read some pretty good posts on here that seem to suggest that after everything - we shoud have around $24mil to spend. So, I'm just going to assume that number.

The question is how best to fill our needs w/in the budge of $24mil.

My pitch would be this
2 Bullpen Spots:
Re-sign Affeldt - $4/5 mil (expensive, but I think a reliable lefty is a great assest)
Roenicke (or similar farm hand) - 0.4mil

Which leaves approx $20mil for 2 position players and catcher spot:
The needs on the club are obvious: SS, C, CF, LF.
--I say (at least initially) leave CF to Dickerson & Hopper/Freel. Maybe trade for CF later if we're in the race and Dickerson bombs. It would be nice to make a real upgrade in CF, but perhaps Stubbs moves along, or the FA market is better next year. As is, w/ the budget constraints, I say let Dickerson play and see what happens.
--Dangle Bailey for the best catching prospect available think Teagarden/Salty - 0.4mil
--LF trade for Magglio.. just do it.. its not the best but he's a stop-gap because I feel the long-term plans are Votto in LF and Alonso on 1st. We give up slightly better prospects than we should to get the Tigers to eat a huge chunk of the contract. Leaving us on the hook for around - 10mil.
--SS... this is where I'm torn... I think we sign Furcal... don't know what the going rate for him is, but say we get him for 12mil (perhaps on a back-loaded contract). We could afford to pay him more w/ Magglio off the books and replaced by much cheaper Alonso. If Gonzalez is healthy come spring training then he's trade bait. -12 mil (this year) hopefully w/ Gonzalez's 5 mil off the books.

My totals:
Payroll of 87.5mil (hopefully subtracting 5 mil of Gonzalez's contract if healthy and traded making it 82.5mil). This is about 2.5mil over the projected budget of $85mil, but I think it puts a winner on the field and B.Cast would sign off for a winner.

Lineup:
Furcal
Teagarden/Salty
Bruce
Magglio
Votto
EdE
Philllips
Dickerson

Rotation:
Harang/Volquez/Cueto/Arroyo/Owings(Ramirez,etc)

Bullpen:
Cordero/Bray/Burton/Affeldt/Masset/Ramirez(Owings)/Roenicke

Wow!

[MartyFan]

For whatever reason I don't think that one of Harang or Arroyo will be part of this team next year. I don't have inside scoop or any other knowledge, just a hunch.

[hippie07]

Sign Furcal
Trade for Magglio
Trade Bailey for Salty/Teagarden
Sign Affeldt

Hang World Series Banner!

How to afford all that is spelled out in the 1st post...

Thoughts?....

C'mon guys, the offseason already seems long to me...need some Reds chatting fun.

[Falls City Beer]

Bailey won't bring back anything of consequence. That ship sank before it got out of the harbor.

[hippie07]

Bailey won't bring back anything of consequence. That ship sank before it got out of the harbor.

The people in Texas probably thought that about Volquez.

Bailey's still worth a lot... and if not, then we keep him and let him hit his stride in a Reds uni.

[BRM]

I don't think Bailey is worth a lot on his own. He'd have to be packaged with someone else to bring back any good return.

[RedLegSuperStar]

I disagree.. I don't think the Reds should be interested in Salty because I don't see him as a catcher.. His arm isn't what it was and he may find emergancy starts at catcher but he is probably more suited at 1st base. I think Homer can net you Laird.

[edabbs44]

Bailey won't bring back anything of consequence. That ship sank before it got out of the harbor.

Then keep him...he is still a talented, young arm. Sometimes it takes certain pitchers a few beatings in the bigs for it to click.

[BRM]

Then keep him...he is still a talented, young arm. Sometimes it takes certain pitchers a few beatings in the bigs for it to click.

I agree. He's likely worth more to the Reds by keeping him than anything he'd fetch in return.

[dougdirt]

I don't get the Texas catchers stuff. Laird isn't an upgrade over Ryan Hanigan is. Salty is about as much of a catcher as Javy is, albeit with a better bat that we don't need with Votto/Frazier/Alonso already looking to clog up the 1B/LF area in the future. I just don't see either of those guys being any kind of upgrade over what we already have, so why we would give up talent to get them, I don't know.

[fearofpopvol1]

I don't get the Texas catchers stuff. Laird isn't an upgrade over Ryan Hanigan is. Salty is about as much of a catcher as Javy is, albeit with a better bat that we don't need with Votto/Frazier/Alonso already looking to clog up the 1B/LF area in the future. I just don't see either of those guys being any kind of upgrade over what we already have, so why we would give up talent to get them, I don't know.

I agree completely. Teagarden doesn't represent a big enough upgrade over Hannigan either. Russell Martin on the other hand....

I see no good reason to trade Bailey at this point. I don't think he is worth much at the moment. Let him pitch in the minors next year and hope he learns some things and then make a decision. I don't think his value is going to get any lower.

[Spring~Fields]

I don't get the Texas catchers stuff. Laird isn't an upgrade over Ryan Hanigan is. Salty is about as much of a catcher as Javy is, albeit with a better bat that we don't need with Votto/Frazier/Alonso already looking to clog up the 1B/LF area in the future. I just don't see either of those guys being any kind of upgrade over what we already have, so why we would give up talent to get them, I don't know.

I can accept what you are indicating regarding the Texas catchers. But to go on to another question regarding the Reds resources to trade for needs to begin with.

Doug dirt, et al.
You and others study the Reds minor league players much deeper than I do thus you are more familiar with what the Reds have as replacements in AAA Louisville. Of course you are familiar with the current Reds players also.

When the subject of trading comes up I tend to lean toward thinking this line after line below, am I wrong? I just don’t see the Reds having anything realistically to trade that other teams would be highly motivated to trade for besides their starting pitching, am I wrong?

Questions or thoughts:
If it is not pitching then who do the Reds have to trade that would genuinely interest other teams looking to improve their teams next year in 2009?

The only ones that I see is some of the Reds major league starting pitching or major league relief pitching that might interest teams to offer a decent return.

Pitching
Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Micah Owings,

Minor League Pitching
Ramon Ramirez, Matthew Maloney, Bobby Livingston, Homer Bailey, Daryl Thompson,

The Reds need starting pitching to begin with themselves. If Harang and Arroyo implode again or Cueto is still learning and is inconsistent again next year, I am not even sure that the Reds have starting pitching to trade, do they?

Harang, Owings, and Thompson had arm troubles last season increasing the risk for parties who might have been interested in possible solutions to their staff in 2009.

Homer Bailey though still young was a mess last year. I can’t see him solving any problems for a team in the present that might be interested.

Johnny Cueto still very young, limited experience and inconsistent. Could teams that have interest count on Cueto for much more than a good work in progress next year?

Bobby Livingston injured the year before and still trying to come back with limited value to begin with.

Reds
Francisco Cordero, Jared Burton, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Gary Majewski,

AAA Louisville Relief
Robert Manuel, Carlos Fisher, Josh Roenicke, Daniel Ray Herrera, Justin Lehr,
The Reds need someone from the list of minor league pitching to help fill out the bullpen and the AAA pitchers have limited trade value or limited ability to help a team looking for pitching in 2009

The major league roster is already short on relief pitchers and short on quality.

Infielders
Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Alex Gonzalez, Jeff Keppinger, Edwin Encarnacion, Paul Janish, Adam Rosales, Danny Richar

They don’t have any replacements or upgrades for their starting infielders or certain infielders among them won’t bring a return that would solve a problem to begin with. The Reds need some upgrades themselves.

Catcher
Ryan Hannigan, Wilkin Castillo
They don’t have any replacements or upgrades here

Outfielders
Jay Bruce, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Freel, Norris Hopper

The Reds are already short in the outfield, Freel and Hopper were injured last year and have limited trade value to begin with. Dickerson was a small sample that looked good but still is a question mark on hitting.

Any other considerations are just minor league prospects at this point that the Reds have as AA or A ball players. Not something that other teams traditionally give up much for.

[dougdirt]

I can accept what you are indicating regarding the Texas catchers. But to go on to another question regarding the Reds resources to trade for needs to begin with.

Doug dirt, et al.
You and others study the Reds minor league players much deeper than I do thus you are more familiar with what the Reds have as replacements in AAA Louisville. Of course you are familiar with the current Reds players also.

When the subject of trading comes up I tend to lean toward thinking this line after line below, am I wrong? I just don’t see the Reds having anything realistically to trade that other teams would be highly motivated to trade for besides their starting pitching, am I wrong?

Questions or thoughts:
If it is not pitching then who do the Reds have to trade that would genuinely interest other teams looking to improve their teams next year in 2009?

The only ones that I see is some of the Reds major league starting pitching or major league relief pitching that might interest teams to offer a decent return.

I honestly think we could package some of our prospects together to net a very good return. Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, Neftali Soto, Juan Francisco, Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola, Carlos Fisher, Drew Stubbs, Kyle Lotzkar, Danny Dorn, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney..... I think if you took almost any of those three guys and put them together in a package (ie: Frazier, Francisco and Roenicke) that you could get a very solid return back for that. If its for a high salary guy from a team looking to shed some salary, then you can take someone away. I don't think there are any untouchables in our farm system right now. We have a whole lot to offer and we can package some guys together and not lose much depth at all either. Now not all of those guys can help from the start next year, but I think by Midseason Frazier, Valaika, Roenicke, Viola (if sent to the pen, although the Reds are going to look at him as a starter next year), Fisher, Stubbs, Thompson, Bailey, Maloney and Dorn could all be able to play in the majors.

Maybe I am crazy though, but I think we could land a very good player with a pacakge of three of those guys, if not less depending on the player and why the team is trading him.

[Spring~Fields]

I honestly think we could package some of our prospects together to net a very good return. Todd Frazier, Chris Valaika, Neftali Soto, Juan Francisco, Josh Roenicke, Pedro Viola, Carlos Fisher, Drew Stubbs, Kyle Lotzkar, Danny Dorn, Daryl Thompson, Homer Bailey, Matt Maloney..... I think if you took almost any of those three guys and put them together in a package (ie: Frazier, Francisco and Roenicke) that you could get a very solid return back for that. If its for a high salary guy from a team looking to shed some salary, then you can take someone away. I don't think there are any untouchables in our farm system right now. We have a whole lot to offer and we can package some guys together and not lose much depth at all either. Now not all of those guys can help from the start next year, but I think by Midseason Frazier, Valaika, Roenicke, Viola (if sent to the pen, although the Reds are going to look at him as a starter next year), Fisher, Stubbs, Thompson, Bailey, Maloney and Dorn could all be able to play in the majors.

Maybe I am crazy though, but I think we could land a very good player with a pacakge of three of those guys, if not less depending on the player and why the team is trading him.

I am not one to ask your opinion and then turn around and to think that you or others are wrong or crazy on here. More often than not I will just assume that I have overlooked something or was just unaware, sometimes either ideas can work out regardless of who’s idea with all the variables, what if’s and unknowns that remain to be manifested.

My only counter thought is, a minor “yeah but“, we are still doing a bit of hopeful reach that another team would give up a solid single player return for faster track prospects that may be one to two years away, other than the minor league pitching that can step up now.

Since those minor league prospects are future major leaguers regulars/or backups and they also appear to be position players and relief pitchers that the Reds will/might need, won’t the Reds themselves be better off holding on to those guys while they grow and develop for another year or two, using them then for replacements or possible upgrades that they themselves will need? Granted some of them are very encouraging and appear to be on a fast track. There is always the money side to, those guys will not cost much on the payroll.

Just guessing here, but if,
Assuming that the Reds want to go younger to stay out of the financial pit falls or quagmires associated with risks and financial constraints.

That brings me back to the Reds starting pitching or relief pitchers which they are short on now and need to give the team a chance to perform well. I am almost coming back to the thought that the Reds will need to stand pat, while trying to sign some lower level free agents to fill the gaps until 2010 or 2011 unless Jocketty could pull off a Oakland/Florida/Tampa type deal and get a large return for some of his pitching which leads me to favor unloading decent pitchers with high contracts to get the large return and to have the cash flow or additional flexibility saved by moving them to purchase other needs that cost more at the same time.

[dougdirt]

I am not one to ask your opinion and then turn around and to think that you or others are wrong or crazy on here. More often than not I will just assume that I have overlooked something or was just unaware, sometimes either ideas can work out regardless of who’s idea with all the variables, what if’s and unknowns that remain to be manifested.

My only counter thought is, a minor “yeah but“, we are still doing a bit of hopeful reach that another team would give up a solid single player return for faster track prospects that may be one to two years away, other than the minor league pitching that can step up now.

Just talking out loud here, but the Brewers got CC Sabathia for a slugger without a position in AA, 25 year old soft tossing lefty Zach Jackson (who is Matt Maloney, but older and not nearly as good), hard throwing 20 year old low A baller Rob Bryson and a 21 year old light hitting outfielder (plus speed, but a terrible defender) who had an isolated slugging of .079. The Reds have that kind of talent that they could move.

That brings me back to the Reds starting pitching or relief pitchers which they are short on now and need to give the team a chance to perform well. I am almost coming back to the thought that the Reds will need to stand pat, while trying to sign some lower level free agents to fill the gaps until 2010 or 2011 unless Jocketty could pull off a Oakland/Florida/Tampa type deal and get a large return for some of his pitching which leads me to favor unloading decent pitchers with high contracts to get the return and to have the cash flow or additional flexibility saved by moving them to purchase other needs that cost more.

I don't get where the Reds are short on starting or relief pitching. The Reds rotation has 4 guys going forward next year and then a whole slew of guys fighting for #5 between Owings, Bailey, Ramirez, Maloney and Thompson. The bullpen also brings plenty of competition to the party with Roenicke, Fisher, Herrera, Owings, Ramirez and maybe Thompson to go with who is coming back.