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Thread: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

  1. #31
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Unless the Reds can do something with their defense and run support that greatly improves the team over last year beyond relying upon pitchers to do more than they were able to do the last two years that changes the runs scored, runs allowed and run differential, I will be predicting an area of 74 wins again next year. The Reds don't have any magic beans or golden gooses on the way in 2009 to date.

    RS
    704
    RA
    800

    DIFF
    -96

    And most of the discussion surrounding the Reds are an example for them as if they are only competing to improve against themselves or last years Reds team, yet they have to compete against St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Houston, not just against improving themselves over last years team.

    Code:
    Chicago Cubs 97 64 .602 -    855 671 +184 
    Milwaukee    90 72 .556 7.5  750 689 +61 
    Houston      86 75 .534 11   712 743 -31 
    St. Louis    86 76 .531 11.5 779 725 +54 
    Cincinnati   74 88 .457 23.5 704 800 -96
    Thanks for your opinion.

    My opinion is ... if the Reds stand pat next year they'll be better than last year... if they make some key moves... they're good enough to be competitive... even in the Central.

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  3. #32
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I know it's a small sample size but they scored more runs than they allowed from the Dunn trade on I believe. Indicator of potential success or just pure luck? Probably a bit of both but their RS/G went up and their RA/G went down. I think the RS had alot to do with Dickerson's and Votto's great end of the season which could make RS quite a bit deceiving. But RA went down is likely a pretty fair indicator in this case. Work on getting that RS up while tweaking the defense at key spots SS and 3B simultaneously and we should be well on our way.
    I agree we thought that we saw something positive happening after the all-star break with the younger players. We can even pull out some numbers to show some indication. What I am getting at is that I would like to see that growth in a nice direction to continue to have life, to continue to be what we see by eye and by number to be in real growth and development. I just don’t want to see a flash of solid promise and then there to be stagnation or a decline back to a unpleasant reality.

    When we look at buying free agents we see problems that are real. When we look at the problem areas where the Reds are short on the field with the regulars and the bench we look to see who the Reds could trade or buy, right now we are having a tough time supporting that the Reds or the market would cooperate with a trade or trades that would support the continuance and we are having problems seeing how the Reds could afford to buy a FA or two to make the difference also.

    We are also banking on Arroyo, Harang, Volquez and Cueto doing more than they are capable of without the runs scored or the much improved defense combined. I can’t find the answer to where the runs are going to come from or where the defense is going to be improved significantly to correct the run differential. Let alone enough for the Reds to compete against four other teams in their division that is going to be working on improving their teams over their last years team, teams that were already better than the Reds.

    Mario I would hate to have to answer and to support where these trades, or FA are going to come from to improve the fielding, run scored, and relief pitching for next year if you or JoJo, or RedsManRick, Steele, Cyclone or others said, “you tell us and support who, when, where and how” in trades or FA that will cause the Reds to improve enough realistically?

    I can’t. Because they need to hang on to the major league pitching, they need to keep the relief pitchers that they have and to use some of those rookies in the minors to fill roles there and to be available in the event of injury, so the Reds are left with little or nothing to trade.

    That is why I am asking for genuine clarity on trade resources, but even that is difficult to speculate about. I accept what Doug is saying about the minor league prospects, and the trade possiblities for a few of them. Though I can't see the Reds being able to move many of them to fill so many needs to upgrade.

  4. #33
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by hippie07 View Post
    Thanks for your opinion.

    My opinion is ... if the Reds stand pat next year they'll be better than last year... if they make some key moves... they're good enough to be competitive... even in the Central.
    That is the part that remains to be seen and answered. If that is not answered and corrected then our optmism will be misguided greatly.

    What we hope for is far different from what the Reds have in reality.

    Dickerson CF
    Gonzalez/Keppinger SS
    Votto 1B
    Encarnacion 3B
    Bruce RF
    Phillips 2B
    Freel/Hopper LF
    Hannigan C

    Bench
    Castillo
    Richar
    Hopper
    Keppinger
    Rosales/A.Phillips
    Castillo
    One to many on the bench list.

    Starting Pitching
    Harang, Arroyo, Volquez, Cueto, Owings/Ramirez

    Relief Pitching
    Cordero, Bray, Burton, Majewski, Masset, plus two more from ?

    Unless I missed some and I might have, the above is what the Reds have. Most of which no one wants to trade, and most have decided that the Reds cannot afford 13-20 million dollar free agents that want 4-6 year contracts.
    Those players also have choice as to where they sign, most want to go to a winning team that they perceive is a ready contender.

    Your starting pitching shows promise, your bullpen is short, your bench is of little help, the defense might be improved in the outfield. Your infield defense is not improved, unless your ready to claim Hanigan as the lone savior for 162 games which he is not. The offense cannot score enough runs to compete.

    Now what?
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-30-2008 at 05:46 PM.

  5. #34
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    I agree we thought that we saw something positive happening after the all-star break with the younger players. We can even pull out some numbers to show some indication. What I am getting at is that I would like to see that growth in a nice direction to continue to have life, to continue to be what we see by eye and by number to be in real growth and development. I just don’t want to see a flash of solid promise and then there to be stagnation or a decline back to a unpleasant reality.

    When we look at buying free agents we see problems that are real. When we look at the problem areas where the Reds are short on the field with the regulars and the bench we look to see who the Reds could trade or buy, right now we are having a tough time supporting that the Reds or the market would cooperate with a trade or trades that would support the continuance and we are having problems seeing how the Reds could afford to buy a FA or two to make the difference also.

    We are also banking on Arroyo, Harang, Volquez and Cueto doing more than they are capable of without the runs scored or the much improved defense combined. I can’t find the answer to where the runs are going to come from or where the defense is going to be improved significantly to correct the run differential. Let alone enough for the Reds to compete against four other teams in their division that is going to be working on improving their teams over their last years team, teams that were already better than the Reds.

    Mario I would hate to have to answer and to support where these trades, or FA are going to come from to improve the fielding, run scored, and relief pitching for next year if you or JoJo, or RedsManRick, Steele, Cyclone or others said, “you tell us and support who, when, where and how” in trades or FA that will cause the Reds to improve enough realistically?

    I can’t. Because they need to hang on to the major league pitching, they need to keep the relief pitchers that they have and to use some of those rookies in the minors to fill roles there and to be available in the event of injury, so the Reds are left with little or nothing to trade.

    That is why I am asking for genuine clarity on trade resources, but even that is difficult to speculate about. I accept what Doug is saying about the minor league prospects, and the trade possiblities for a few of them. Though I can't see the Reds being able to move many of them to fill so many needs to upgrade.
    I get your point, options are limited but resources are not great. But mostly because people would prefer to make large leaps, I do not feel that is likely. That's why I support the notion of making incremental advances at several spots. We wouldn't likely overwhelm anyone next year but it would make us better (sans significant dropoffs elsewhere) and more complete with no glaring deficiencies. BTW speaking of dropoffs I don't really see anyone who should have significant dropoffs for any reason. But I do see guys who should get back to normal.

    Granted even in making those advances you may have to spend a little more than what's desireable both in dollars and FA but I have the suspicion that's exactly what Bob/Walt is up to. What Walt was quoted as saying about the offseason lines up exactly with what I have had in mind. I know people would rather hear Walt say we are going to win next year but what I hear him saying is we are going to be competitive which gives us a chance to win next year and beyond. And not the competitive that we are used to hearing about but a real solid team in every way. Although I wonder a little about the pen and the bench which I think will end up needing improvement if nto addressed but I'm guessing Walt understands those issues as well.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  6. #35
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    Your starting pitching shows promise, your bullpen is short, your bench is of little help, the defense might be improved in the outfield. Your infield defense is not improved, unless your ready to claim Hanigan as the lone savior for 162 games which he is not. The offense cannot score enough runs to compete.

    Now what?
    First may I direct your attention to this Article:

    Jocketty expects payroll to climb, lists priorities
    Posted by JohnFay at 9/27/2008 3:21 PM EDT on Cincinnati.com

    Here's your weekly preview of the Sunday Insider for the paper:

    Walt Jocketty wouldn't give an exact number, but he said he expects the player payroll to climb for next season. I don't like to write about money and payroll -- and I don't think spending is necessarily tied to winning -- but I think it's significant that the Reds will up the payroll for 2009. That means they're going to try to win next year, despite going younger over the last couple months.

    My guess is payroll will end up in the $80 million range. It was $74 million at the start of this season. With Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. off the books, that will give the Reds money to spend on the free agent market.

    The top priority?

    "I think we still need a right-handed hitter, a runner producer," Jocketty said, "not necessarily, a home run hitter, but a run producer, someone who can drive in runs in the clutch."

    I'm not sure that kind of player is available on the free agent market. A trade for high-salary guy -- Matt Holliday or Magglio Ordonez? -- might be the best way to fill that need.

    Jocketty has re-evaluated the needs somewhat in light of recent play of young guys like Ryan Hanigan and Chris Dickerson.

    "There are way to improve in different areas, but I've been very impressed with the way team's played the last few weeks," Jocketty said. "Hanigan did a great job catching. I would still say we're not sure with (Alex) Gonzalez at short. He should be able to come back. But we've said all along that catching, short and center field are our needs, along with the right-handed hitter, the leadoff hitter. Now we know we have some flexibility. We've seen what Ryan Hanigan can do. We all feel very good about what he's shown us. If a frontline guy's not available, Ryan could fill that need. If we allocate money in different areas, we know that Dickerson can play center field and be a leadoff hitter. We know Gonzalez is coming back and can play short. I think it's going to be more looking at what's available and if it upgrades our club.

    "Our pitching staff was good but is there somebody out there who could make it better."

    It's interesting that Jocketty doesn't list pitching as a top priority. When is last time a Reds GM said that at the close of a season?

    "I feel real good about the starting pitching," Jocketty said. "I've talked to a number of clubs who say I wish I had your pitching going into next year."

    http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs...cincinnati.com
    Our GM is aware of our needs and he plans to address them and he plans to spend money freely where needed.

    I'll say it again...
    Defense is improved "New Left Fielder"/Dickerson/Bruce is an improvement over Dunn/Bruce/Griffey, Infield defense will most likely still be hampered by EdE, but from the article above we can infer that Kepp won't be playing SS, it will be AGon or an acquisition... in other words an upgrade. And yes, an upgrade of Hanigan over Bako to add on top of that.

    -Holes in the Bullpen?? Do you honestly believe that because 3 bullpen pitchers are FA, that we can't/won't resign them or acquire someone of equal or better value? If so, what is your basis for that argument?

  7. #36
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    BTW speaking of dropoffs I don't really see anyone who should have significant dropoffs for any reason. But I do see guys who should get back to normal.
    In that ballpark with that defense and lack of run support I will have to see Harang, Arroyo and Owings stay healthy and pitch to their levels of ability until the end of July to know that they are healthy and will sustain what we hope. I share OBM's optmisms for Cueto but I also have to remember that he is young and will likely, not necessarily but likely have his ups and downs again next year. I assume that the GM will want his trade (Owings) to be the fifth starter unless his issues last year blow up again, or if he struggles in the spring.

    Jocketty will be left with attempting to trade some of the minor league pitching for position players or sign some of the lower free agents if I am guessing correctly. He won't have much left in the event of need unforseen if he does.

    He has a long ways to go on the offense and defense. Something that we all have been trying to speculate on how he might address that, again that is why I was asking Doug for reasonable inventory of trade possibilities knowing that he is well informed with the minor league resources.

    Granted even in making those advances you may have to spend a little more than what's desireable both in dollars and FA but I have the suspicion that's exactly what Bob/Walt is up to.
    I share those suspicions and suppositions. I think that Bob and his marketing department will be pushing for some marquee names to fill the seats. I don't know or think that Bob makes wise decisions based upon his hire/fire and movem in and out track record to date though, even though he might have just promised the world or complimented and supported the players, gm's, or manager's that he is and has moved out.

    Two people based upon their past comments in the media or on the air who I think that lacks credibility are Castellini and Baker. I hope that Jocketty will offset their puffery and nonsense talk.

    The resources for Mr. Jocketty to be able to do the job have to come from somewhere.

  8. #37
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by hippie07 View Post
    First may I direct your attention to this Article:



    Our GM is aware of our needs and he plans to address them and he plans to spend money freely where needed.

    I'll say it again...
    Defense is improved "New Left Fielder"/Dickerson/Bruce is an improvement over Dunn/Bruce/Griffey, Infield defense will most likely still be hampered by EdE, but from the article above we can infer that Kepp won't be playing SS, it will be AGon or an acquisition... in other words an upgrade. And yes, an upgrade of Hanigan over Bako to add on top of that.

    -Holes in the Bullpen?? Do you honestly believe that because 3 bullpen pitchers are FA, that we can't/won't resign them or acquire someone of equal or better value? If so, what is your basis for that argument?
    I do like your optimism though. I have enjoyed reading the optimist on here for the past eight years.

    I have to go conservatively and with what the ownership group has allowed in the past as percentage increases to the budget and payroll, conservatively that has ranged from 7% to 13.13 % increases the past two years, and the first year they decreased the payroll. A 79-83 million dollar payroll leaves little room for vast improvements.

    So for Mr. Jocketty to say that the payroll will increase is not an issue, the issue is will the Reds have the aggregate funding to improve the team, and will the players targeted by Mr. Jocketty even be interested in coming to the Reds in comparison to other organizations with a history of winning and more resources to pay them a higher and lengthier contract.

    What are you basing these alleged improvements to over come St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Houston upon in your opinion?

  9. #38
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by hippie07 View Post
    -Holes in the Bullpen?? Do you honestly believe that because 3 bullpen pitchers are FA, that we can't/won't resign them or acquire someone of equal or better value? If so, what is your basis for that argument?
    I think that those three very well might come from within Fisher, Manuel, Reonicke, Ramirez and Lehr. But Baker and Jocketty will probably limit the amount of inexperienced or rookies in the bullpen.

    Where do you think the other three or four will come from?

  10. #39
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    But mostly because people would prefer to make large leaps, I do not feel that is likely.
    If Jocketty did it like Arizona, Oakland, Florida, Tampa or Minnesota in the past there could be large leaps next season and the following. But everyone wants to gamble and hang on to that pitching (Harang, Arroyo, Cordero) that other teams around baseball might want. So there won't be any big returns or growth coming from that direction.

  11. #40
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post
    I do like your optimism though. I have enjoyed reading the optimist on here for the past eight years.

    I have to go conservatively and with what the ownership group has allowed in the past as percentage increases to the budget and payroll, conservatively that has ranged from 7% to 13.13 % increases the past two years, and the first year they decreased the payroll. A 79-83 million dollar payroll leaves little room for vast improvements.

    So for Mr. Jocketty to say that the payroll will increase is not an issue, the issue is will the Reds have the aggregate funding to improve the team, and will the players targeted by Mr. Jocketty even be interested in coming to the Reds in comparison to other organizations with a history of winning and more resources to pay them a higher and lengthier contract.

    What are you basing these alleged improvements to over come St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, and Houston upon in your opinion?

    Please see the original post in this forum. I propose changes that will put this team over the top and tell how I would do it financially.
    -In fact I use your same budget calculation, which (if 13% increase) means an $84mil payroll, w/ the current salaries and expenses putting us at $60, that leaves $24 mil for new acquisitions. However, the original post lays this out more clearly.

    Quote Originally Posted by Spring~Fields View Post

    I think that those three very well might come from within Fisher, Manuel, Reonicke, Ramirez and Lehr. But Baker and Jocketty will probably limit the amount of inexperienced or rookies in the bullpen.

    Where do you think the other three or four will come from?
    Again see the original post, but for brevity:
    Re-sign Affeldt
    Roenicke
    and Owings or Ramirez (whomever's not in the 5th spot)
    Last edited by hippie07; 10-30-2008 at 07:51 PM.

  12. #41
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    Re: Payroll, Priorities, and Planning

    Quote Originally Posted by hippie07 View Post
    Please see the original post in this forum. I propose changes that will put this team over the top and tell how I would do it financially.
    -In fact I use your same budget calculation, which (if 13% increase) means an $84mil payroll, w/ the current salaries and expenses putting us at $60, that leaves $24 mil for new acquisitions. However, the original post lays this out more clearly.



    Again see the original post, but for brevity:
    Re-sign Affeldt
    Roenicke
    and Owings or Ramirez (whomever's not in the 5th spot)
    My pitch would be this
    2 Bullpen Spots:
    Re-sign Affeldt - $4/5 mil (expensive, but I think a reliable lefty is a great assest)
    Roenicke (or similar farm hand) - 0.4mil
    I can see the money and possibility for having these two in the bullpen that is about $5 million according to your numbers respectfully. Do you really think that they are the solution to the bullpen in 2009? Doesn't Roenicke have control problems? and isn't Affeldt going to want more money? Though I am not big fan of Affeldts, some really like him.

    Leaving 19 million to work with of your original $24 discretionary money.

    Which leaves approx $20mil for 2 position players and catcher spot:
    The needs on the club are obvious: SS, C, CF, LF.


    --I say (at least initially) leave CF to Dickerson & Hopper/Freel. Maybe trade for CF later if we're in the race and Dickerson bombs. It would be nice to make a real upgrade in CF, but perhaps Stubbs moves along, or the FA market is better next year. As is, w/ the budget constraints, I say let Dickerson play and see what happens.
    I agree with letting Dickerson continue to play CF based upon his good showing and small sample late this past season.

    --Dangle Bailey for the best catching prospect available think Teagarden/Salty - 0.4mil
    I don’t know, I wonder if they really would do that for one of those catchers? Not sure. Bailey, people have varied opinions on, I would not give you but a PTBNL for him based on last season, he would not help my team next year. I don't think he will help the Reds in 09, so I think that other teams might think the same.

    Texas needs pitchers that can help now.

    Would the Reds really want one of their catchers or would Jocketty want a more experienced and defensive minded catcher? There have been times that I thought that they would be a good addition, but, Dougdirt who really follows minor league type prospects deeply, doesn’t appear to be very high on them and I respect his opinion a lot.

    Magglio Ordonez RF R R 34 $15,768,174

    --LF trade for Magglio.. just do it.. its not the best but he's a stop-gap because I feel the long-term plans are Votto in LF and Alonso on 1st. We give up slightly better prospects than we should to get the Tigers to eat a huge chunk of the contract. Leaving us on the hook for around - 10mil.
    I read that Detroit really doesn’t want to trade him, that they are looking for relief pitching or closer, a catcher and a shortstop. The media reports are kind of mixed messages on the guy. (it has varied depending on who is doing the writing). On one hand they are talking about reducing salary, then the next that they don’t really want to trade him. To fit into our 19 million remaining up there and to still move to the other hypothetical moves the Tigers would have to eat a nice part of his salary for 2009

    It is not clear what the Reds would have to give up for him and what the salaries or payroll differences would be required for either team in the exchange. For them to pay a part of his 2009 salary, won’t they have to get quite a very good return on him?

    What would you be willing to give up for him in a hypothetical trade that might answer their wants and needs? Would it effect the Reds pitching starting or bullpen?

    --SS... this is where I'm torn... I think we sign Furcal... don't know what the going rate for him is, but say we get him for 12mil (perhaps on a back-loaded contract). We could afford to pay him more w/ Magglio off the books and replaced by much cheaper Alonso. If Gonzalez is healthy come spring training then he's trade bait. -12 mil (this year) hopefully w/ Gonzalez's 5 mil off the books.
    I think we run into a snag with Gonzalez and his compressed fracture here and whether or not he can come back and really perform, and if a team would want to take on his salary on that risk. Though I would agree in that I would like to see his salary and Freels off the books and wish them the best with their new teams or career changes.

    Rafael Furcal SS B R 31 $15,730,195

    Furcal some on here have praised as a good choice at short because of his fielding and bat, but won’t he blow out our remaining budget of what after getting Magglio? I haven’t been able to get a feel for the money or length of contract the guy is looking for or where he might desire to sign and to play. Is he willing to make the same money or take a pay cut?

    My totals:
    Payroll of 87.5mil (hopefully subtracting 5 mil of Gonzalez's contract if healthy and traded making it 82.5mil). This is about 2.5mil over the projected budget of $85mil, but I think it puts a winner on the field and B.Cast would sign off for a winner.
    I could see Castellini signing off if he thought that the two marquee names would help attendance and those two probably would.

    What will the Reds be doing with the payroll increases that will follow in 2010? They could probably trade those two to clear some payroll.
    Last edited by Spring~Fields; 10-30-2008 at 09:12 PM.


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