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Thread: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

  1. #1
    He sure could hit HalMorrisRules's Avatar
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    Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    ...according to SI.com. They speak kind words about the Reds in general and add that Lowe would make them instant contenders.

    The Reds aren't often thought of as players in free agency, but they could be an NL Central sleeper in '09; Lowe, 35, would make them a bona fide contender. He's a durable righthander who may be the safest bet in a deep free-agent pitching pool. His ability to induce ground balls is a huge asset in tiny Great American Ballpark, and his signing would allow Cincinnati to keep Homer Bailey, 22, in long relief as he adjusts to the majors, or to deal Bronson Arroyo for a quality infield glove.
    Bailey in long relief is most likely the best option for him at this point in time. Let him sink or swim in a "non-pressure" situation in the big leagues.

    Lowe is going to be highly sought after in free agency. How much is too much for the Reds to pay Lowe to convince him to come to Cincinnati. Will it be more than what it took to get Cordero here last winter?

    SI.com

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    Member Emin3mShady07's Avatar
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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Lowe would undoubtedly make the rotation much, much better,but that doesn't address all of the reds needs. The reds need a decent hitter or two to step in for the void left by Dunn. Also, the left side of the infield needs work defensively. While there is no doubt Lowe would make the reds better, he would not automatically make them contenders. Lowe had a great xFIP this past season, but I would expect his actual numbers to be worse if he were with the reds because of the reds (lack of) defense this past season.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07 View Post
    Lowe would undoubtedly make the rotation much, much better,but that doesn't address all of the reds needs. The reds need a decent hitter or two to step in for the void left by Dunn. Also, the left side of the infield needs work defensively. While there is no doubt Lowe would make the reds better, he would not automatically make them contenders. Lowe had a great xFIP this past season, but I would expect his actual numbers to be worse if he were with the reds because of the reds (lack of) defense this past season.
    You nailed it. Adding Lowe is will be a complete waste if the Reds have the same left side of the infield as last year. The Reds really did not have a starter who was a ground ball pitcher last year. Imagine how many errors EE would have had if they did.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    You nailed it. Adding Lowe is will be a complete waste if the Reds have the same left side of the infield as last year. The Reds really did not have a starter who was a ground ball pitcher last year. Imagine how many errors EE would have had if they did.
    Not a good image

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Lowe is about the only big name free agent on the market that I could see the Reds really trying to sign.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Derek Lowe is the most overrated "underrated player" in baseball. He's a product of Dodger Stadium. Go check out his home/away splits. He had a 4.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP on the road last year. Those are Bronson Arroyo numbers.

    I'd much rather have Sheets, injuries and all. We have plenty of depth, and could absorb the lost innings. What you don't want to do is add a pitcher who might not be any better than Micah Owings. That's just throwing away money.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    What I said about Lowe notwithstanding, if the Reds do add a top of the rotation pitcher, we certainly are contenders. Not favorites, but contenders. We would have one of the best rotations in baseball. That's #1 most important thing in my book.

    The offense can be worked out. Platoons, situational hitting, etc, can generate enough runs IF you've got great pitching. Plus we have people who can fill holes, that, even though they're not great players, they are solid and dependable. Guys like Freel, Keppinger, and Rosales aren't going to win any batting crowns or homerun derby's, but they won't embarass themselves if they're used right.

    Ideally, you don't want to have to choose between hitting and pitching, you want both. But if it's a bad market, and we're forced to, I'd rather have the pitching. That's a general approach, though. More important than all that is getting players at good value.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Derek Lowe is the most overrated "underrated player" in baseball. He's a product of Dodger Stadium. Go check out his home/away splits. He had a 4.48 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP on the road last year. Those are Bronson Arroyo numbers.

    I'd much rather have Sheets, injuries and all. We have plenty of depth, and could absorb the lost innings. What you don't want to do is add a pitcher who might not be any better than Micah Owings. That's just throwing away money.
    ......and how do you explain away his 21-8 and 17-7 seasons in Boston as a starter?

    Career stats: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/...3Qeai3tvKFCLcF
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    ......and how do you explain away his 21-8 and 17-7 seasons in Boston as a starter?

    Career stats: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/...3Qeai3tvKFCLcF
    Easy, he had great hitting behind him. His numbers in Boston were...

    2002...2.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
    2003...4.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
    2004...5.42 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

    That's one great season 7 years ago, one mediocre and one poor season.

    Then he got lucky and went to LA and a new league. Here's his away splits since he went to the Dodgers...

    2005 - 3.48/1.30
    2006 - 4.13/1.37
    2007 - 4.19/1.32
    2008 - 4.48/1.35

    Notice the downward trend as NL hitters get accustomed to facing him. Those are Bronson Arroyo numbers.

    This is a much worse situation than the Matt Holliday splits. Holliday would be going from a hitters park to a hitters park. Lowe would be going from a pitchers park to a hitters park.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Easy, he had great hitting behind him. His numbers in Boston were...

    2002...2.58 ERA, 0.97 WHIP
    2003...4.47 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
    2004...5.42 ERA, 1.52 WHIP

    That's one great season 7 years ago, one mediocre and one poor season.

    Then he got lucky and went to LA and a new league. Here's his away splits since he went to the Dodgers...

    2005 - 3.48/1.30
    2006 - 4.13/1.37
    2007 - 4.19/1.32
    2008 - 4.48/1.35

    Notice the downward trend as NL hitters get accustomed to facing him. Those are Bronson Arroyo numbers.

    This is a much worse situation than the Matt Holliday splits. Holliday would be going from a hitters park to a hitters park. Lowe would be going from a pitchers park to a hitters park.
    .....yeah, as opposed to the 7.10 e.r.a. we got in 36 starts from our 5th starters this year. An e.r.a. in the 4.00's might have won us 9 or 10 more games.
    Who's on first?

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    Member kpresidente's Avatar
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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by ChatterRed View Post
    .....yeah, as opposed to the 7.10 e.r.a. we got in 36 starts from our 5th starters this year. An e.r.a. in the 4.00's might have won us 9 or 10 more games.
    Read my post after the one about Lowe. I'm right with you. I just don't like Lowe as much as everybody else. I think people are overrating the GB/FB effect and underrating the GABP/Dodger Stadium effect.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    I agree that paying Lowe $15 million would be nuts. I also agree that some big spender will overpay him.

    Finally, I agree that it is not a stellar FA market.

    But I do think the Reds seriously need to solidify the 5th starter position.
    Who's on first?

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Read my post after the one about Lowe. I'm right with you. I just don't like Lowe as much as everybody else. I think people are overrating the GB/FB effect and underrating the GABP/Dodger Stadium effect.
    Like I said before, even if the Reds get Lowe and Lowe continues to have a good ground ball rate, the reds defense is not as good as LA's defense was. Lowe is a good pitcher, but if there isn't enough defense behind him his numbers could be significantly worse than what, statistically, they should be near. Having Lowe would be fine, he would certainly fill a huge hole in the rotation, but I think the money would be better spent signing a better SS, ie Rafael Furcal. The only problem is that the reds still have Alex Gonzalez and badly need to find someone to take that contract.

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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    That's a no-brainer.

    They sign low and give up nothing but money to get him, and yes....they absolutely are contenders.

    The Defensive Shortstop problem will get fixed as there are plenty of candidates to fill that role. That person doesn't need to hit as he's more valuable to the team defensively.

    The Left Field position is not an issue as there are a half a dozen players in house that can fill that position. It's blown way out of proportion by way too many people.

    Get a Defensive Shortstop (it's imprudent to rely on Gonzalez) and sign Lowe and the 2009 REDS are within 3 games of a playoff spot on July 1st. That's what being in contention is. At that time a reassessment can take place.

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    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Reds are a contender if they sign Lowe

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    ...Ideally, you don't want to have to choose between hitting and pitching, you want both. But if it's a bad market, and we're forced to, I'd rather have the pitching. That's a general approach, though. More important than all that is getting players at good value.
    we HAVE pitching now. offense and defense is just as important to win. if we stay with the same position players we likely won't score as much as we need and could have the same defensive problems. platoons and situational hitting can do only so much and did you forget dusty? as much as you may not like it he'll still be the manager in '09.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    ....The Defensive Shortstop problem will get fixed as there are plenty of candidates to fill that role. That person doesn't need to hit as he's more valuable to the team defensively.

    The Left Field position is not an issue as there are a half a dozen players in house that can fill that position. It's blown way out of proportion by way too many people. .....
    there's plenty of shortstop candidates? where? i'll agree that defense is important at short but how many shortstop candidates are really out there (not bench players) that we know would improve the defense, not be a liability offensively, and not insist on being overpaid?

    half a dozen players in house that can fill the left field spot? again where? did you want dickerson, freel, (and maybe hairston) to cover center, left and backup the infield? they can handle one of the outfield spots but not both of them. or did you want to count on stubbs, frazier, etc for one of those spots? cuz i think it's a little soon for that.

    i don't see how we have a huge hole in the rotation but i do see a huge hole in the outfield/offense. look i have no problem with lowe but i don't think he'd help as much as some think and imo more offense and better defense is needed ALOT more than another starting pitcher. all the pitching in the world can't get you into the playoffs if you don't have the defense and offense.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 11-02-2008 at 03:35 AM.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."


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