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Thread: Dunn was just a rental

  1. #46
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Even among Dunn's supporters, I'm not sure you'll find many, if any, who believe he's worth more than $13-15M.
    There are plenty around here who think Adam Dunn is worth more than that. Maybe I shouldn't use this as an example since he's anything but non-partisan to the Adam Dunn issue but here's someone who says he's worth $17-20mill:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=140

    I believe I said once that I'd offer him 3 yrs/$35mill. I still think that's reasonable for the guy and he won't starve on it either.

    I can't say for sure what an owner will end up offering Dunn but I stand by my opinion that that if he gets anywhere near $17-20mill/yr that he's overpaid.

    Playing in a World Series will likely help Burrell's worth because rightly or wrongly it looks like he helped his team to win. If the D-Backs had gone to the WS, Dunn's value would have been higher as well.

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    He's going to be a National. Bank it.

    And as Reds fans, it should make you cry.
    It should make me cry that a former Red is going to be a National? Shrug....

  4. #48
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    It was pretty transparent at the time IMHO that the Dbacks were likely factoring in comp picks as part of their trade calculus. Nothing that happened in Arizona decreased Dunn's standing as a free agent so I'm not sure why his tenure as a Diamondback would be used as another platform to push an agenda.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #49
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    The intriguing thing is it is a risk for the D-Backs to offer him arbitration. First of all arbitrators have been known to give out more money than a player can get on the open market so he may get a ton in arbitration. It sounds like the D-Backs are not interested in keeping him so if he gets thrown in their laps in January it could throw out the structure of their team plans for 2009.

    Personally I would offer him arbitration because I don't think he'd take it but it would be a risk because he'd likely be awarded a ridiculous sum and as we've already seen, he doesn't have a lot of trade value. So yes, I'd take that risk with the idea that I'd get the draft picks but the last thing I'd want would be for him to accept.

  6. #50
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The intriguing thing is it is a risk for the D-Backs to offer him arbitration. First of all arbitrators have been known to give out more money than a player can get on the open market so he may get a ton in arbitration. It sounds like the D-Backs are not interested in keeping him so if he gets thrown in their laps in January it could throw out the structure of their team plans for 2009.

    Personally I would offer him arbitration because I don't think he'd take it but it would be a risk because he'd likely be awarded a ridiculous sum and as we've already seen, he doesn't have a lot of trade value. So yes, I'd take that risk with the idea that I'd get the draft picks but the last thing I'd want would be for him to accept.
    I think it depends with Dunn. When do you need to decline arbitration in order to hit the FA market? I think there are many GM's who think along the lines of Ricciardi. Not to the extent that Ricciardi comments made public but to the extent that they don't want to lock Dunn up long term. There will also be GM's out there that think he is either a 1b or DH which will further eliminate more clubs. He also has a skill set that is very debatable and hard for many to put a $/year measure upon it.

    What happens to Dunn if the Yankees, Angles, and Dodgers are the three teams that sign CC, Texiera, and ManRam? The majority of the FA money would have already been spent and Dunn likely wouldn't fit into their plans. I don't see a fit with the Red Sox who would have the kind of money to throw at Dunn. IMO you can continue down the list of the high spending teams and still not find a fit for Dunn at a max dollar contract. In reality his best offer may be in DC where he will continue to fall into the same trap of good numbers but poor team results.

    IMO Dunn and his agent will have to make a quick decision about his value of the FA market. If Dunn wants to make good money playing for a winning team his best bet may be to reup with Arizona. However if he accepts arbitration I doubt he will have a no trade clause in his contract. It may be possible that Dunn's best option is to accept arbitration and play for a big contract next season in Arizona.

  7. #51
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The intriguing thing is it is a risk for the D-Backs to offer him arbitration. First of all arbitrators have been known to give out more money than a player can get on the open market so he may get a ton in arbitration. It sounds like the D-Backs are not interested in keeping him so if he gets thrown in their laps in January it could throw out the structure of their team plans for 2009.

    Personally I would offer him arbitration because I don't think he'd take it but it would be a risk because he'd likely be awarded a ridiculous sum and as we've already seen, he doesn't have a lot of trade value. So yes, I'd take that risk with the idea that I'd get the draft picks but the last thing I'd want would be for him to accept.
    Arbitration is actually a significant risk for Dunn.

    First, Dunn can not ask for the moon because the arbitrator determines the player's worth and then rewards the submitted figure that is closest to his determined value (the arbitrator can not split the difference). Second, there is the risk that even though Dunn might win in arbitration, he might get hurt or slump during his 1 yr deal and thus risk losing a huge amount of money in subsequent FA markets.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #52
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    If Dunn wants to make good money playing for a winning team his best bet may be to reup with Arizona. However if he accepts arbitration I doubt he will have a no trade clause in his contract. It may be possible that Dunn's best option is to accept arbitration and play for a big contract next season in Arizona.

    I'm thinking his best bet to play for a winner would be the Angels. I have no idea if they're interested but I think that'd be a good fit for him. I'd hate to see him end up in DC but that may be appealing to him since Kearns is there and with Bowden the money will be good

  9. #53
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Would Dunn be a good fit for Seattle or San Francisco?

  10. #54
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    There are plenty around here who think Adam Dunn is worth more than that. Maybe I shouldn't use this as an example since he's anything but non-partisan to the Adam Dunn issue but here's someone who says he's worth $17-20mill:

    http://www.redszone.com/forums/showp...&postcount=140
    Someone? That's me, and going forward, I'd prefer that you cite my username if you're going to link to a post- especially if I'm not already participating in the discussion. I'd offer anyone the same courtesy.

    Now, read that post again and note the contextual references:

    Given the window his presence would likely allow, at least 17M per season and potentially 20M per knowing how much revenue can be generated by a playoff-caliber team.

    Is Adam Dunn, in isolation, worth 17 to 20M dollars based solely on his Run Value assuming it remains constant when compared to the previous three seasons? Let's just say that 17 to 20M is likely a bit of an overpayment. However, in the right scenario, overpayment is not only acceptable but- dare I say it- mandatory.

    The last significant overpayment we saw was the contract handed to Francisco Cordero, who produced an xFIP of 4.08 in 2008. To your credit, you were cautionary when the signing occurred. In fact, I consider it to be one of your best posts:

    Sea Ray 11/24/07:I'm thrilled they got the best closer on the market but I do think they over paid for him. Let's hope they get their money's worth. A contract like this carries a lot of risk for a club like the Reds.

    In terms of blown saves he will not greatly improve our pwen but where he'll help is how he'll move everyone else back. Just by having Cordero in the back of the pen, it will improve middle relief greatly. The idea of bringing him in was not so we can protect a lead in the 9th. This is designed to better protect leads in the 7th and 8th which was the downfall of this team last year.


    Now, knowing that Cordero projected to be likely worth far less than a full Win than your average MLB reliever, it seems odd that you'd be simply cautionary rather than outraged about spending 12 Million bucks per season on Cordero given your obvious position on Dunn. Not only that, but after noting the risk you began rationalizing based on a "trickle-down" effect that could have been at least partially achieved by the acquisition of anything better than the worst RP the Reds had available.

    I believe I said once that I'd offer him 3 yrs/$35mill. I still think that's reasonable for the guy and he won't starve on it either.
    So you'd prefer that a consistent 100+ RC offensive player take a pay cut during his age-prime years. I'd prefer that as well from a resource management standpoint, but it's not going to happen.

    I can't say for sure what an owner will end up offering Dunn but I stand by my opinion that that if he gets anywhere near $17-20mill/yr that he's overpaid.
    In the right scenario, that's money well-spent.

    Playing in a World Series will likely help Burrell's worth because rightly or wrongly it looks like he helped his team to win. If the D-Backs had gone to the WS, Dunn's value would have been higher as well.
    Yeah, I'd agree that there's a small chance that scenario will play out.
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  11. #55
    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Great post as always, Steel.
    Quote Originally Posted by Scrap Irony View Post
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  12. #56
    This one's for you Edd Heath's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    It should make me cry that a former Red is going to be a National? Shrug....
    Shrug now, 40HR's & a potential .900 OPS off this roster is going to be losing some runs for next year.

    And that September pyrite isn't counted.
    Some people play baseball. Baseball plays Jay Bruce.

  13. #57
    Member cincrazy's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    There are more personal attacks in Adam Dunn threads than there are in your typical political race. I don't even think Dunn should be an acceptable topic around here anymore.

  14. #58
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    There are more personal attacks in Adam Dunn threads than there are in your typical political race. I don't even think Dunn should be an acceptable topic around here anymore.
    Well to be fair, Dunn loves strikes so he likely is a socialist.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #59
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    Shrug now, 40HR's & a potential .900 OPS off this roster is going to be losing some runs for next year.

    And that September pyrite isn't counted.
    Offense is only one side of the game. That said, I don't think Adam Dunn is a bad player, he is quite good. He is just a bit overrated by a few heavy hitters on this forum (and a bit underrated by some others). He is what he is, but going forward I don't see how he fits with the Reds plan. He plays poor defense in the outfield, is going to make a whole lot of money, doesn't have the best body ever that projects to holding up well in the outfield for the length of his contract and the Reds don't have room to play him at first base (nor does it seem he wants to play there, at least for the Reds).

  16. #60
    Member VR's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    There are more personal attacks in Adam Dunn threads than there are in your typical political race. I don't even think Dunn should be an acceptable topic around here anymore.
    Good point. The big contract Dunn receives this off season should put a halt on the criticism of his value.
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