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Thread: Dunn was just a rental

  1. #61
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Personally I would offer him arbitration because I don't think he'd take it but it would be a risk because he'd likely be awarded a ridiculous sum and as we've already seen, he doesn't have a lot of trade value. So yes, I'd take that risk with the idea that I'd get the draft picks but the last thing I'd want would be for him to accept.
    If I was running a baseball team, I would only offer arbitration to players that I wanted back. I think comp picks are highly overrated. If you've got the money to spend on a comp pick, you've got money to buy a reach pick in a later round. There's always more talent than money in the draft. In other words, a club never has to worry about having money left over for lack of alternatives.
    Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  3. #62
    Party like it's 1990 Blitz Dorsey's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Very interesting thread. I foresee Dunn signing something like a 4-year/$56 million deal with someone. I am not even going to try and venture a guess as to which team, but I think the deal will be something like that.

    Then again, you never know. I remember thinking someone would give Kyle Lohse a good contract last offseason and it never happened. He ended up having to sign that 1-year/$4 million deal with the Cardinals at the last minute. And he finally got his money, but I remember being pretty surprised that there wasn't one team out there willing to give Lohse a decent LTC last year.

  4. #63
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by REDREAD View Post
    If I was running a baseball team, I would only offer arbitration to players that I wanted back. I think comp picks are highly overrated. If you've got the money to spend on a comp pick, you've got money to buy a reach pick in a later round. There's always more talent than money in the draft. In other words, a club never has to worry about having money left over for lack of alternatives.
    You don't see the value in getting to draft a David Wright, Colby Rasmus, or Clay Bucholtz simply because you made an offer that you knew would be turned down?
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  5. #64
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Heath View Post
    He's going to be a National. Bank it.

    And as Reds fans, it should make you cry.
    If you mean tears of joy that he's not going to the Cubs, the Brewers, the Astros or, where he'd probably be an absolute beast, the Cardinals (Pujols would drive him in about 8 bajillion times), then I'm down for crying.

    I can live with playing against hiim 8 times a season. 18 when he's killing me every time? Well, where's the nearest/highest rooftop...

  6. #65
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Screwball View Post
    If you mean tears of joy that he's not going to the Cubs, the Brewers, the Astros or, where he'd probably be an absolute beast, the Cardinals (Pujols would drive him in about 8 bajillion times), then I'm down for crying.

    I can live with playing against hiim 8 times a season. 18 when he's killing me every time? Well, where's the nearest/highest rooftop...
    There are two very polarized camps both with very loud voices concerning Dunn with relatively fewer people in the middle (I blame gerrymandering).

    I wonder how the view of Dunn by each camp would change by watching the Reds have to face him a significant number of times? My guess is that more people would gravitate toward the middle.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  7. #66
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post

    Is Adam Dunn, in isolation, worth 17 to 20M dollars based solely on his Run Value assuming it remains constant when compared to the previous three seasons? Let's just say that 17 to 20M is likely a bit of an overpayment. However, in the right scenario, overpayment is not only acceptable but- dare I say it- mandatory...

    In the right scenario, that's money well-spent.

    Let's start from Rick's post. He stated that he'd not heard of anyone stating Dunn's worth at over $15mill. I gave him an example of someone who did. It's not important who. I remembered it because I was amazed at the time that you thought Dunn's value was that high. I originally asked you a very simple question "What is Dunn worth to the Reds?" Your answer now is full of qualifiers such as the assumption that Dunn is worth overpaying. I came away from your comments with the impression that you now think $17-20mill is overpaying Dunn but you think the ends justify the means. That changes our focus point but OK.

    If that's the case then let's start with where we agree. Paying Dunn $17-20mill/yr is overpaying him.

    Is he worth overpaying? To me he's only worth overpaying if you feel Dunn adds wins to the Reds above his personal production. History has shown us that he doesn't, so no, he's not worth overpaying.

    IMO few offensive players are worth overpaying. Manny Ramirez is an exception. He really did help his team win games down the stretch so it wouldn't surprise me if the Dodgers end up overpaying him.

  8. #67
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by cincrazy View Post
    There are more personal attacks in Adam Dunn threads than there are in your typical political race. I don't even think Dunn should be an acceptable topic around here anymore.
    Let's be accurate here. The personal stuff didn't start until post #54 and I refused to extend it.

    edit:

    No I take that back. That's not fair.

    Post #48 brought up an "agenda" and I'm fairly certain he wasn't referring to a baseball team's agenda which is the only time the word agenda can be baseball related around here.

    Cincrazy's observation is dead on and it's ashame because I know it discourages folks from posting their opinion on Dunn and posting opinions on baseball is what this forum should be all about.
    Last edited by Sea Ray; 11-04-2008 at 01:22 PM.

  9. #68
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Best OPS vs the league for Reds with 3000 PA's in team history.

    Code:
    CINCINNATI REDS
    CAREER
    AVERAGE vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    RUNS CREATED/GAME vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    AT BATS displayed only--not a sorting criteria
    
    OPS                             DIFF   PLAYER   LEAGUE     AVG      OBA      SLG     RC/G      AB     
    1    Frank Robinson             .206     .943     .737     .037     .059     .147     3.22     5527   
    2    Joe Morgan                 .165     .885     .720     .025     .083     .083     3.69     4008   
    3    Eric Davis                 .153     .877     .725     .009     .037     .115     2.48     3272   
    4    George Foster              .152     .870     .718     .022     .025     .127     1.92     4454   
    5    Adam Dunn                  .126     .900     .773    -.022     .039     .087     2.01     3727   
    6    Edd Roush                  .119     .839     .721     .051     .040     .079     1.67     5384   
    7    John Reilly                .117     .780     .663     .037     .014     .103     1.89     4412   
    8    Ted Kluszewski             .116     .869     .753     .034     .016     .100     1.70     4961   
    9    Jake Beckley               .112     .818     .706     .044     .033     .079     1.74     3465   
    10   Tony Perez                 .110     .820     .711     .022     .019     .091     1.35     6846

  10. #69
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Let's start from Rick's post. He stated that he'd not heard of anyone stating Dunn's worth at over $15mill. I gave him an example of someone who did. It's not important who.
    To be fair, I said I wasn't "aware of many, if any". The other complicating factor here is, of course, the length of the contract. I'd happily give Dunn $17M for 1 year. It's when the offer becomes 5/85 that I start to get antsy. Those are very different propositions.

    I don't want to be paying Dunn that sort of cash in his decline years, which could be quick and painful if he either worsens defensively or loses contact ability. He very well may merit that sort of a salary for the next 5 years. But he might not. Once you start paying that salary, your team's future success is beholden to a best case scenario. That's not a position I'd like to be in.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 11-04-2008 at 01:33 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  11. #70
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Let's be accurate here. The personal stuff didn't start until post #54 and I refused to extend it.

    edit:

    No I take that back. That's not fair.

    Post #48 brought up an "agenda" and I'm fairly certain he wasn't referring to a baseball team's agenda which is the only time the word agenda can be baseball related around here.

    Cincrazy's observation is dead on and it's ashame because I know it discourages folks from posting their opinion on Dunn and posting opinions on baseball is what this forum should be all about.
    I'm sure the poster in #48 was just wondering out loud how the Dbacks' organizational plans inspired a drudging up of past arguments about Dunn related issues.

    That's just a guess. I've PM'd him for clarification.
    "This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  12. #71
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    To be fair, I said I wasn't "aware of many, if any". The other complicating factor here is, of course, the length of the contract. I'd happily give Dunn $17M for 1 year. It's when the offer becomes 5/85 that I start to get antsy. Those are very different propositions.

    I don't want to be paying Dunn that sort of cash in his decline years, which could be quick and painful if he either worsens defensively or loses contact ability. He very well may merit that sort of a salary for the next 5 years. But he might not. Once you start paying that salary, your team's future success is beholden to a best case scenario. That's not a position I'd like to be in.
    What's the difference between "aware" and "heard of"? I'm not sure what distinction you're trying to make here.

    Of course length of contract is also an issue, but that wasn't part of the discussion when you initially made your 13-15mill comment

  13. #72
    Churlish Johnny Footstool's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There are two very polarized camps both with very loud voices concerning Dunn with relatively fewer people in the middle (I blame gerrymandering).

    I wonder how the view of Dunn by each camp would change by watching the Reds have to face him a significant number of times? My guess is that more people would gravitate toward the middle.
    It depends on how he performs in that small sample size of games. If he hits a couple of game-winning homers, we'll all realize how great he was. If he strikes out a ton, we'll all realize what a bum he was.

    Seeing is believing, regardless of how few times you see something.
    "I prefer books and movies where the conflict isn't of the extreme cannibal apocalypse variety I guess." Redsfaithful

  14. #73
    2009: Fail Ltlabner's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    I wonder how the view of Dunn by each camp would change by watching the Reds have to face him a significant number of times? My guess is that more people would gravitate toward the middle.
    The bickering over Dunn has more to do with a fundemental idology in how the most runs are created at the old ballpark than with anything about Dunn per se.

    Those who are "pro-Dunn" will cheer when walks or homers and yawn if he strikes out.

    Those who are "anti-Dunn" will moan when he strikes out and dismiss when we walks. Homers are a push (solo shots will be dissed, but homers that make differences in the game will be cheered).

    But no amount of seeing him in another teams uni will change that the arguement is over the nature of the creation of runs, not necessarly Dunn's creation of those runs.
    Last edited by Ltlabner; 11-04-2008 at 03:36 PM.
    a super volcano of ridonkulous suckitude.

    I simply don't have access to a "cares about RBI" place in my psyche. There is a "mildly curious about OBI%" alcove just before the acid filled lake guarded by robot snipers with lasers which leads to the "cares about RBI" antechamber though. - Nate

  15. #74
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    There are two very polarized camps both with very loud voices concerning Dunn with relatively fewer people in the middle (I blame gerrymandering).

    I wonder how the view of Dunn by each camp would change by watching the Reds have to face him a significant number of times? My guess is that more people would gravitate toward the middle.
    I don't think you will ever find middle ground with Dunn. Fact of the matter is most Reds fans have watched Dunn for 7 years and formed their own opinion. There will always be the group that looks at his OPS and numbers and proclaim him the next best thing since sliced bread. There will be others that day he isn't clutch. The will be people who say he doesn't drive in enough runs. Others will say he is miscast as a middle of the order hitter. Some will say his strikeouts don't matter because it is only one out while others will say his strike outs hurt the team.

    As long as Dunn is involved there will always be a very spirited debate. Each side tends to stick to their guns and doesn't budge one way or the other. It usually ends up someone telling someone else they are wrong. We will continue to rehash the Adam Dunn debates even when he signs with another team. I may be one of the few or one of the many but I am glad Dunn will find another home this off season. Another home in which the fans can bemoan his strike outs and low BA, but hopefully a home that will be able to compliment his all around game better than the Reds did.

  16. #75
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Dunn was just a rental

    In this particular thread I haven't seen anybody diss Dunn or be in the anti-Dunn camp. Everyone here says that he's worth a ton of money. Everyone thinks he's worth well over $10mill/yr.


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