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View Poll Results: Prospect #8 runoff vote

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  • Chris Dickerson

    25 28.74%
  • Juan Duran

    30 34.48%
  • Juan Francisco

    32 36.78%
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Thread: Prospect #8 runoff vote

  1. #16
    Boom Goes the Dynamite Screwball's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruceFan View Post
    I voted for Francisco because I don't like voting for a young minor leaguer that hasn't played against anyone important yet

    I like players that are producing now, not someone that may produce a few years from now
    Um, Francisco isn't producing now (not where it counts anyway), and he still won't until "a few years from now."

    I think the right vote is Duran. With prospects, ceiling and projectabilty have a lot to do with it IMO. JD has boatloads of both. He probably has the highest ceiling of any prospect in the Reds' MiL system, and that's keeping in mind that I think very highly of Yonder Alonso and Neftali Soto. Given Francisco's glaring need to vastly improve his OBP skills, I gotta give the nod to Duran over him.

    Having said all that, hopefully what JF is showing in the AFL can be sustained and subsequently carried over to AA. If so, we really do have a potential star on our hands.
    Last edited by Screwball; 11-02-2008 at 08:17 AM.

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  3. #17
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Duran is such a raw prospect at this point it's very difficult to rate him.

    Dickerson strikes out one third of his official at bats, that's tough to overcome.

    Francisco doesn't walk enough but produces big time and is only 21. The poster who commented that "he isn't producing now", must be ignoring or discounting 34 doubles and 23 homers with 92 RBIs for a 20-21 year old at High A ball. Guess that doesn't count for some reason.

    It's Francisco.

    Also, it's up to OBM, but sometimes a run-off will be most conclusive if it's limited to two guys.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-02-2008 at 09:19 AM.

  4. #18
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Also, it's up to OBM, but sometimes a run-off will be most conclusive if it's limited to two guys.
    Yeah, I was hoping to limit it to only two guys but only four votes separated the three. Either way, it looks like this one is gonna be very tight again.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #19
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Three hours of voting left. I was hoping for around 80 votes, so far we're at 78.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  6. #20
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I think Age is a bit over-rated in the free agent era. Top guys become too expensive after 5 or 6 years so looking longer than that when evaluating what a prospect could mean to a team may not be real useful. Age is important when projecting a player and how he'll perform, but once he's ready, the longevity angle is low on the list of things to consider. Since my criteria is based solely on how I think the player will help the Reds, I don't consider the age they hit they big leagues so much. They'll be free agents after 6 years anyway, so its only the cheap years that the team really gets benefit from them. (If we're simply projecting who will have the better career, I'd probably give age a lot more weight, and that may be the objective of these polls, but I'm looking at it only from a value to the Reds standpoint.)
    Just curious, do you consider Danny Richar a prospect? His career numbers are similar to Valaika's, although he had a bad year last year. The difference being that he's 3 years older. How about Rosales? Given your criteria, I'd think those guys would rank higher than they would on a "pure prospect" list.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 11-02-2008 at 03:26 PM.

  7. #21
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by icehole3 View Post
    in a perfect world we'd all like the Reds to have 4 teams of minor league all-stars who are sure fire hall of famers, relax dude its all in fun.
    I'm totally relaxed, "Dude". Give that advice to those who opted to assail my comment. I'm merely saying, there are other prospects with a shot at helping the org. at the MLB level a lot sooner.

  8. #22
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Just curious, do you consider Danny Richar a prospect? His career numbers are similar to Valaika's, although he had a bad year last year. The difference being that he's 3 years older. How about Rosales? Given your criteria, I'd think those guys would rank higher than they would on a "pure prospect" list.
    I have Valaika at number 16 on my list. Rosales is at number 24 (but maybe under-rated a bit as I think about it now) and Richar not rated. In the cases of both Valaika and Rosales, they are decent bats if they can stay at MI defensively but I have doubts that either will be able to. They don't have enough bat for a corner spot IMO. I'd consider moving Rosales higher because I actually think he is more likely to able to handle 2B than Valaika, but Valaika is the more noted player so I rated him higher because I think he has more value on the trade market. They could both be supersub types though, and while I think that is valuable those seem to be easier to find these days than in earlier eras. I don't think Richar even has enough bat for the MI.

    They differ from Dickerson because Dickerson projects as a plus defender in CF and his bat should be plenty for his position. Dickerson could be an everyday player (or at least a most of the time player based on him being the LH side of a platoon). I don't see any of the players you mentioned holding any position on a regular basis on the major league level.
    Last edited by mth123; 11-02-2008 at 03:48 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  9. #23
    Vampire Weekend @Bernie's camisadelgolf's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    FWIW, Richar no longer qualifies as a rookie.

  10. #24
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I have Valaika at number 16 on my list. Rosales is at number 24 (but maybe under-rated a bit as I think about it now) and Richar not rated. In the cases of both Valaika and Rosales, they are decent bats if they can stay at MI defensively but I have doubts that either will be able to. They don't have enough bat for a corner spot IMO. I'd consider moving Rosales higher because I actually think he is more likely to able to handle 2B than Valaika, but Valaika is the more noted player so I rated him higher because I think he has more value on the trade market. They could both be supersub types though, and while I think that is valuable those seem to be easier to find these days than in earlier eras. I don't think Richar even has enough bat for the MI.

    They differ from Dickerson because Dickerson projects as a plus defender in CF and his bat should be plenty for his position. Dickerson could be an everyday player (or at least a most of the time player based on him being the LH side of a platoon). I don't see any of the players you mentioned holding any position on a regular basis on the major league level.
    MTH123, it has been said numerous times in the BA chats by different analysts that Valakia would be an above average second baseman defensively. Are you saying that he will have to move off short or he can't play second either?

  11. #25
    Member kheidg-'s Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Forgot about Rosales, maybe he should be added sometime in the near future. Along with Hanigan.

  12. #26
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by New Fever View Post
    MTH123, it has been said numerous times in the BA chats by different analysts that Valakia would be an above average second baseman defensively. Are you saying that he will have to move off short or he can't play second either?
    I have my doubts that he can play either one. A lot of guys move to second by default when they can't play SS, it doesn't make them good 2B. I don't want a defender at 2B in the Todd Walker, Jeff Keppinger mold unless his bat is in the Jeff Kent mold. What evidence is there that he can play 2B? The team is still fooling around with him at SS. Valaiaka needs to play 2B regularly the same way Frazier needs to get an extended look at 3B. This team needs to find out what they really have and if they have positions that match their bats. Up the middle players better be plus defenders or sent packing IMO unless the bat is top notch. Valaika projects as a .750ish OPS guy in his prime and that requires a plus defender to hold a regular spot up the middle.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

  13. #27
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Didn't the Reds have Valaika play 2nd in Hawaii last year? Maybe after seeing him play 2nd that they felt that he was a better prospect at SS. I think he can play SS at the next level.

  14. #28
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I have my doubts that he can play either one. A lot of guys move to second by default when they can't play SS, it doesn't make them good 2B. I don't want a defender at 2B in the Todd Walker, Jeff Keppinger mold unless his bat is in the Jeff Kent mold. What evidence is there that he can play 2B? The team is still fooling around with him at SS. Valaiaka needs to play 2B regularly the same way Frazier needs to get an extended look at 3B. This team needs to find out what they really have and if they have positions that match their bats. Up the middle players better be plus defenders or sent packing IMO unless the bat is top notch. Valaika projects as a .750ish OPS guy in his prime and that requires a plus defender to hold a regular spot up the middle.
    I have multiple responses to your post:
    1. I agree with you about trying Valaika and Frazier and different positions. It would be great if one of them could play good SS with their better than average bats, but it seems the Reds don't see them as SSs. It will be interesting to see how the Reds handle these guys.
    2. The Reds should not be focused on no less than plus defenders up the middle. Let's just try to improve on the below-average defense we currently have (excluding BP) up the middle. IF the Reds have average or better, that's sufficient improvement for me. Then we can look at 3B....
    3. I don't know what projections you are relying on for Valaika - but his major league hitting projects as a safe .800 to .850. He doesn't have Jay Bruce potential, but he's a legitimate hitter with a mature plate approach. The issue with him (as you correctly identified) is where will he play?

  15. #29
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    One hour left of voting and we're tied. LOL.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  16. #30
    The Big Dog mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect #8 runoff vote

    Quote Originally Posted by Betterread View Post
    I have multiple responses to your post:
    1. I agree with you about trying Valaika and Frazier and different positions. It would be great if one of them could play good SS with their better than average bats, but it seems the Reds don't see them as SSs. It will be interesting to see how the Reds handle these guys.
    2. The Reds should not be focused on no less than plus defenders up the middle. Let's just try to improve on the below-average defense we currently have (excluding BP) up the middle. IF the Reds have average or better, that's sufficient improvement for me. Then we can look at 3B....
    3. I don't know what projections you are relying on for Valaika - but his major league hitting projects as a safe .800 to .850. He doesn't have Jay Bruce potential, but he's a legitimate hitter with a mature plate approach. The issue with him (as you correctly identified) is where will he play?
    1, Agree.

    2. You are right that average would be an improvement, but average or below defense up the middle w/o studly bat equals bench player IMO.

    3. I think Valaika will struggle to get on base enough to have an .800ish OPS. He may have enough pop to be a 15 to 20 HR guy and slug in the low 400s. but I don't see an OBP north of .335. He could probably have a season or two above .800, but it will be BABIP driven and not something that we should expect annually IMO. I think Ronnie Belliard is a decent comp, but Belliard was a better OBP guy in the minors. If that is what we're looking at on offense, then I'd want him to be a plus player on defense or I'd try somebody else.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

    Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS


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