Stubbs had some power in college. He hasn't shown much since. Defensively from what I've read its just about a wash, though I think doug would no better than me on that.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
I think their K rates are very close to each other. Stubb's rate dropped a bit in 2008, but how much of that was sample in each league? His K rate at AAA was almost exactly the same as Dickerson's, maybe a tick under.
Raisel Ghul, the Demon's Head
Here's a bold prediction: The next 3 go Duran, Dickerson, and Dorn in that order.
It's getting tough for me. As previously noted, I'll probably go with Dickerson at #10 and Danny Dorn #11. After that, I'm not sure. I wanna vote for Yorman Rodriguez somewhere in the top 15, but I also like the three relievers, Ramon Ramirez, and Mesoraco. We'll see. I think the system is pretty deep with solid prospects right now.
I miss Adam Dunn.
The Stubbs supporters will point out that he combines good OBP skills with plus defense and speed, and is projected to improve his power.
Juan Fransisco supporters will suggest that if he can learn to become slightly more selective year after year than he could become a very dangerous power hitter.
Homer Bailey supporters will suggest he has the ability to develop and locate his secondary pitches. The list goes on and on of prospects who are thought to have this internal ability to improve their game in a certain area.
And then there are the guys, like Dorn, who for whatever reason are not given the benefit of the doubt that other prospects are. Why doesn't Dorn project to become an everyday player? If your reason is that he will merely turn out to be a platoon player because he has struggled to hit against lefties than why do you think he doesn't have the ability to improve? If I say that I think it is reasonable that he could improve to hit 250/330/400 against lefties is that enough to change his projectability? I'm not discounting BA and scouts opinions because they're useful but I'm not going to completely ignore production or minimize a prospect because he doesn't have the same following like the other guys. The other guys are pretty safe prospects to "project" because we all can recognize their individual talents and athleticism even if they don't ever pan out as ML's, however Dorn is a guy who was passed over many times yet continues to produce like he doesn't know better. Someone should just go tell him he's garbage and that he's not a very good baseball player. Judging from his results I don't know if he'll be listening to you.
Last edited by Orenda; 11-03-2008 at 12:38 PM.
1. He plays a position very easy to fill at the major league level with a guy who can OPS .800.
2. He can't hit lefties at all. He shows plate discipline against them, which is good, but he has no power against them.
3. His defense isn't anything special and he isn't strong armed either.
Those are the three biggest things going against him. That said, I ranked him as my #9 guy in the system because even if he is just a platoon player, 400-450 PA of what he brings against right handed pitching is too hard to pass up.
I also hadn't realized that he had played quite a bit of 1st base this season where he was pretty solid in terms of errors (1) and he seemed to exhibit really nice (Votto-esque) range at the position, according to the #'s anyway. But I also learned that he has only had 3 errors in the OF in his minor league career. So perhaps he isn't as bad as advertised, and he definitely has the defensive versatility that I was previously unaware of until I went and looked harder myself recently.
IMO I definitely put him ahead of Duran and Francisco but I always did anyway. The question is do I move him ahead of a kid with a high ceiling that showed me something who plays at a premium position, (Mes). I probably should but Catcher is one of the 2 hardest positions to fill if not the hardest with a quality player which I still believe he is. And the fact that he is a catcher in itself makes him a more valuable prospect. Dorn IMO is a no doubt top 10 Reds prospect and a better one than people are giving him credit for. Mostly because they are relying on someone else to give them all the info and not looking closely into it themselves.
"You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."