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Thread: Greene? Really?

  1. #16
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    No thanks

    The only thing this guy can hit are storage bins with his hand

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  3. #17
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    I would rather see the Reds keep their talent and sign Orlando Cabrera.
    Somebody's gotta win and somebody's gotta lose and I believe in letting the other guy lose.

    -Pete Rose

  4. #18
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by Gamble View Post
    I would rather see the Reds keep their talent and sign Orlando Cabrera.
    The thing about the FAs is there's always a long-term contract involved. None of these guys are good enough to be our long-term answer.

    After reading some of the responses, I'm backing off my distaste for Greene somewhat. His defensive numbers are pretty good, and I think he really could show some power here. The OBP makes me sick to my stomach, but what are you going to do?

    The contract's really not that bad, either. It's a one-year rental and 6.5 million isn't going to break the bank.

    All things considered, I see this as a small upgrade. It comes down to what San Diego wants in return. There are 4 other teams out there and if any kind of bidding war breaks out, the Reds need to be the first team out of the race.

  5. #19
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Here's my guy for SS...

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fontemi01.shtml


    He platoons with Keppinger and between the two of them we get a .380-.400 OBP and about a .500 SLG batting in the #2 hole. Yes, his defense is bad, just as bad as Keppinger's, but with that kind of OBP, I really don't care. Whatever outs we lose in the field, we'll more than make up for at the plate.

    That platoon might also work at 3B, although Fontenot hasn't seen much time there. Or you could put the pair at 2B and move Phillips. Several options there.

    His contract is nothing, and I bet he could be had for fewer prospects than Khalil Greene. Maybe Rosales and Maloney would do the trick. Those are two guys with no future in Cincinnati.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 11-04-2008 at 10:12 PM.

  6. #20
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Just say no to Cabrera. An aging shortstop is the last thing this team needs, and his skills have been dwindling for a couple of years.

    He could probably get as much done with the bat as Greene but this team needs a real live SS with a youngish body, a guy who can pick it left and right every day.

    I'm not even saying Greene is that guy. But I know most if not all the free agent SS's are not.

  7. #21
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Here's my guy for SS...

    http://www.baseball-reference.com/f/fontemi01.shtml


    He platoons with Keppinger and between the two of them we get a .380-.400 OBP and about a .500 SLG batting in the #2 hole. Yes, his defense is bad, just as bad as Keppinger's, but with that kind of OBP, I really don't care. Whatever outs we lose in the field, we'll more than make up for at the plate.

    That platoon might also work at 3B, although Fontenot hasn't seen much time there. Or you could put the pair at 2B and move Phillips. Several options there.

    His contract is nothing, and I bet he could be had for fewer prospects than Khalil Greene. Maybe Rosales and Maloney would do the trick. Those are two guys with no future in Cincinnati.

    Kpres- you do nice work and I appreciate the effort you put into trying to find answers the Reds needs. However....

    SS is the most important defensive position on the field. It's importance can not be measured by any fielding stat, or any compilation of stats. Having a solid fielding SS results not just in less errors, or more plays made, it leads to less pitches being thrown by the pitchers, having a starter go deeper into games, using the bullpen less, letting pitchers have confidence in allowing the batter to make contact, less AB's for the opposing lineup which means that the best hitters hit less often, less stress on the rest of the defense, and so much more.

    Look at this chart Name:  Reds_defense.jpg
Views: 46
Size:  18.8 KB

    It is the Reds defensive rating as a team over the last 10 years. It shows that defense matters. Big time. The Reds do not at all need offense from their SS. That has not been the problem. They need steady, solid defense. Fontenot is not the answer, not at all.

  8. #22
    Member redsfandan's Avatar
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    the opinions on him seem mixed and now i'm not sure either. take this with a grain of salt but this does point out some stuff to include in the discussion:

    Padres put Greene on trade block 11/04/08 9:52 PM EST
    Shortstop's frustrating 2008 season ended with broken hand By Lyle Spencer / MLB.com

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?...2008&fext=.jsp

    DANA POINT, Calif. -- If ever a quality Major League player in the prime of his career appeared in need of a change of scenery, Khalil Greene fits the profile. The Padres apparently have recognized this in making Greene, one year away from free agency, available in trade discussions.
    At 29, with five Major League seasons behind him, Greene has a higher career slugging percentage on the road than Matt Holliday -- .484 to .455. The Padres shortstop plays a more important position than the Rockies' formidable left fielder, at a high level of proficiency.

    This isn't to suggest that Greene is as valuable as Holliday. The point is, Greene is a gifted, proven talent, and he's on the market in the wake of a frustrating season that ended when he punched a storage chest on July 30 at PETCO Park, fracturing his left hand. The Padres have filed a grievance seeking to reclaim $1.47 million of his $4.5 million salary for 2008, claiming the injury was self-inflicted. That can't do much for their relationship with the 2002 first-round Draft choice (13th overall) from Clemson.

    Clubs have expressed interest in Greene, Padres general manager Kevin Towers acknowledged Tuesday, adding that a deal could be connected indirectly with a potential trade involving San Diego ace Jake Peavy.

    The Padres are exploring a Peavy deal with as many as seven clubs, five in the National League, Peavy's strong preference. Towers reported nothing new on that front Tuesday at the General Managers Meetings in an Orange County resort hotel.

    If the Padres are able to claim a shortstop in a package for Peavy, such as the Braves' Yunel Escobar, it would alleviate the need to get one in return for Greene. The Reds, Orioles and Tigers are among those who have reportedly inquired about Greene.

    "It may be better keeping [Greene] and getting a couple of [compensation] Draft picks," Towers said. "Or, maybe get some pitching back and sign a free-agent shortstop. Or, Khalil's situation could be tied to a Peavy [trade]. If a shortstop comes back in a Peavy thing, it'd be easier to move Khalil."

    Towers added that it is unlikely Peavy and Greene will be involved in the same deal.

    Greene's 2008 season was by far the worst of his Major League career. He batted .213 with 10 homers and 35 RBIs in 105 games, dropping his career average to .248. His 100th strikeout, after he'd been struck on the shin by a foul ball, prompted his dugout explosion on July 30 -- a rare display by a cool, collected athlete known for masking his
    emotions.

    Just one year earlier, Greene had helped drive the Padres to 89 wins and a memorable tiebreaker game in Denver, the loss ending their season. He delivered eight homers and 23 RBIs in 28 September games, finishing the season with 27 homers and 97 RBIs.

    Frustrated, like so many Padres hitters, by PETCO Park's vast dimensions and thick marine layer, Greene is a .225 career hitter at home in 337 games, compared to .270 on the road in 322 games.

    Holliday, who reportedly could be moved by Colorado with free agency a year away, is a .357 hitter at Coors Field and a .280 hitter on the road. Greene has outhomered Holliday, 50-44, in career road games and produced two more RBIs (178) in 17 fewer games.

    "I think he's underrated," Towers said of Greene. "When he stayed healthy [in 2007], he had a good year. He came close to 30 homers and driving in 100 runs, and you don't see many middle infielders doing that. He's playing in a tough park where it's difficult to post numbers.

    "He's one of the elite defenders in the game. He's never won a Gold Glove, but he probably doesn't put up the offensive numbers to get a Gold Glove."

    Greene, who is guaranteed $6.5 million for 2009, turned down a four-year, $29 million extension last winter. He earned $3.3 million across his first four seasons in San Diego.

    Extremely popular with Padres fans for his spectacular style in the field and self-effacing manner off the field, Greene ran second to good friend and former Minor League teammate Jason Bay of the Pirates in the 2003 National League Rookie of the Year balloting. Playing 139 games, Greene batted a career-high .273.

    Lyle Spencer is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.
    obviously a Gm will talk up a player whether it's true or not. his ops was 109 pts lower away fom petco last year but by all accounts it was an off year for him. over his entire career it is 144 pts higher. and this is what he has done at our park in his career (12 games/52 abs) in a lineup that isn't exactly loaded:

    Great American .327 .357 .615 .973

    greene is also a righthanded batter which everyone agrees we could use. considering the relationship between greene and the padres is strained and that the padres seem to want to shed payroll i have to wonder how much the padres would really insist on in a deal. and if he could possibly be a good buy low candidate.
    Last edited by redsfandan; 11-05-2008 at 07:00 AM.
    "Now that's a real shame when folks be throwin' away a perfectly good white boy like that."

  9. #23
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Kpres- you do nice work and I appreciate the effort you put into trying to find answers the Reds needs. However....

    SS is the most important defensive position on the field. It's importance can not be measured by any fielding stat, or any compilation of stats. Having a solid fielding SS results not just in less errors, or more plays made, it leads to less pitches being thrown by the pitchers, having a starter go deeper into games, using the bullpen less, letting pitchers have confidence in allowing the batter to make contact, less AB's for the opposing lineup which means that the best hitters hit less often, less stress on the rest of the defense, and so much more.

    Look at this chart Name:  Reds_defense.jpg
Views: 46
Size:  18.8 KB

    It is the Reds defensive rating as a team over the last 10 years. It shows that defense matters. Big time. The Reds do not at all need offense from their SS. That has not been the problem. They need steady, solid defense. Fontenot is not the answer, not at all.

    The Cubs played Ryan Theroit as SS, who's worse than Keppinger. They won the division. He had a .387 OBP.

    The Reds had a winning record with Hairston in the line-up...playing SS. He had a .384 OBP.

    So, yes, a .380-.400 OBP is what we need. What we don't need is Corey Patterson part II.

    We have a defensive SS. If offense doesn't matter, just play Janish. He might be able to manage a .300 OBP. I'm not sure Greene could.

    We had a terrible defense last year, but will upgrade the OF at least, by default, so things will already be better.

    We had a terrible team OBP last year, but lost our best hitter and have yet to replace him, so things will be worse.


    It's a matter of outs. How many does the player get you vs. how many does he cost you. What you need to win in baseball is good starting pitching, OBP, and small contracts. I care about defense after those are established. I'd love to have Jimmy Rollins as much as the next guy, but he's not available.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 11-05-2008 at 01:47 PM.

  10. #24
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    [QUOTE=kpresidente;1758609]Ugh.

    The Cubs played Ryan Theroit as SS, who's worse than Keppinger. They won the division. He had a .387 OBP.

    The Reds had a winning record with Hairston in the line-up...playing SS. He had a .384 OBP.

    So, yes, a .380-.400 OBP is what we need.

    We have a defensive SS. If offense doesn't matter, just play Janish. He might be able to manage a .300 OBP. I'm not sure Greene could.

    We had a terrible defense last year, but will upgrade the OF at least, by default, so things will already be better.

    We had a terrible team OBP last year, but lost our best hitter and have yet to replace him, so things will be worse.


    It's a matter of outs. How many does the player get you vs. how many does he cost you. What we need is better OBP all around and a 5th starter./[QUOTE]

    See Thread: "Swisher???" for an answer for those two issues. Although not a answer for the Catcher Issue.
    @#$% my @#$%^*&

  11. #25
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    nm

  12. #26
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Ugh.

    The Cubs played Ryan Theroit as SS, who's worse than Keppinger. They won the division. He had a .387 OBP.

    The Reds had a winning record with Hairston in the line-up...playing SS. He had a .384 OBP.

    So, yes, a .380-.400 OBP is what we need. What we don't need is Corey Patterson part II.

    We have a defensive SS. If offense doesn't matter, just play Janish. He might be able to manage a .300 OBP. I'm not sure Greene could.

    We had a terrible defense last year, but will upgrade the OF at least, by default, so things will already be better.

    We had a terrible team OBP last year, but lost our best hitter and have yet to replace him, so things will be worse.


    It's a matter of outs. How many does the player get you vs. how many does he cost you. What you need to win in baseball is good starting pitching, OBP, and small contracts. I care about defense after those are established. I'd love to have Jimmy Rollins as much as the next guy, but he's not available.
    Theriot is actually a lot better at shortstop than Keppinger. Theriot had an RZR 26 points higher than keppinger and according to BP, Theriot was 5 runs above average and keppinger was 10 runs below, and that was in limited action. Also, the Cubs had one of the best lineups in the National League, and once they traded for harden, one of the best rotations. Theriot was part of their success as a team, but even if they had Orlando Cabrera at SS, who had a .343 OBP, I still expect they would have won the NL central
    Baseball is not necessarily an obsessive-compulsive disorder, like washing your hands 100 times a day, but it's beginning to seem that way. We're reaching the point where you can be a truly dedicated, state-of-the-art fan or you can have a life. Take your pick. ~Thomas Boswell

    Having a life is overrated.

  13. #27
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by Emin3mShady07 View Post
    Theriot is actually a lot better at shortstop than Keppinger. Theriot had an RZR 26 points higher than keppinger and according to BP, Theriot was 5 runs above average and keppinger was 10 runs below, and that was in limited action. Also, the Cubs had one of the best lineups in the National League, and once they traded for harden, one of the best rotations. Theriot was part of their success as a team, but even if they had Orlando Cabrera at SS, who had a .343 OBP, I still expect they would have won the NL central
    I don't use Keppinger's numbers from last year because I think he was rushed back from the injury. 2007 is more indicative.

    Theriot may have had a good year last year, but his previous years are -4 and -6 FRAA.
    Last edited by kpresidente; 11-05-2008 at 01:45 PM.

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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    Ugh.

    The Cubs played Ryan Theroit as SS, who's worse than Keppinger. They won the division. He had a .387 OBP.

    The Reds had a winning record with Hairston in the line-up...playing SS. He had a .384 OBP.

    So, yes, a .380-.400 OBP is what we need. What we don't need is Corey Patterson part II.

    We have a defensive SS. If offense doesn't matter, just play Janish. He might be able to manage a .300 OBP. I'm not sure Greene could.

    We had a terrible defense last year, but will upgrade the OF at least, by default, so things will already be better.

    We had a terrible team OBP last year, but lost our best hitter and have yet to replace him, so things will be worse.


    It's a matter of outs. How many does the player get you vs. how many does he cost you. What you need to win in baseball is good starting pitching, OBP, and small contracts. I care about defense after those are established. I'd love to have Jimmy Rollins as much as the next guy, but he's not available.
    Double UGH


    If you care about outs, then you should care about defense. If your defense can't make outs, than you will lose. The Cubs had a very strong defensive team, including Theriot at SS.

    Let's put it this way. The key to baseball is that you get three outs to score runs in every inning. If a team is given four outs, they will score significantly more runs than if given just three. That includes not just errors, but not getting to balls hit to your position. Fontenot as a starting SS would give the other team four outs at least once a game. That is going by his range factor at 2B, which is over one full chance below league average. At SS it would be even worse. And that would be huge. If the other team only scored one run half the time, that is 81 runs at least that he would be responsible for. And that is a very conservative estimate. There is no way his high OBP makes up even half of that.

    If you care about outs, you need to care about defense.

  15. #29
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    You're taking his RFg, not his RF/27. That's deceiving because a backup like Fontenot often bats once and gets credited with a game played. His RF/27 was only 0.4 chances below league average, not a full chance. Now, I don't believe that one out = 1/2 run, but even if I accept that, you're looking at 32 runs, not 81.

    BTW - you really can't run the numbers this way because there are more TC in a game than outs...an assisted play results in 2 TC (1 assist, 1 PO) and only 1 out, so the run value of each TC is exaggerated. But it's OK for arguments sake....

    Now, offensively, I don't know what the average SS produces, but a Fontenot/Keppinger platoon (8.05 RC/27) would net you about 90 more runs than Khalil Greene based on his 2008 (2.9), and about 60 more than his career figures (4.4).
    Last edited by kpresidente; 11-05-2008 at 04:31 PM.

  16. #30
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    Re: Greene? Really?

    Quote Originally Posted by kpresidente View Post
    You're taking his RFg, not his RF/27. That's deceiving because a backup like Fontenot often bats once and gets credited with a game played. His RF/27 was only 0.4 chances below league average, not a full chance. Now, I don't believe that one out = 1/2 run, but even if I accept that, you're looking at 32 runs, not 81.

    BTW - you really can't run the numbers this way because there are more TC in a game than outs...an assisted play results in 2 TC (1 assist, 1 PO) and only 1 out, so the run value of each TC is exaggerated. But it's OK for arguments sake....

    Now, offensively, I don't know what the average SS produces, but a Fontenot/Keppinger platoon (8.05 RC/27) would net you about 90 more runs than Khalil Greene based on his 2008 (2.9), and about 60 more than his career figures (4.4).

    Those were Fontenot's #'s for 2B, and you are talking about him at SS. Who knows how horrible he would be at SS? I don't want to find out. And I agree with you that these fielding stats are not the best way to figure out the value of a defender, but that is because fielding has so many side effects, like the ones I mentioned earlier, that you have ignored. Here is the list again.

    Having a solid fielding SS results not just in less errors, or more plays made, it leads to less pitches being thrown by the pitchers, having a starter go deeper into games, using the bullpen less, letting pitchers have confidence in allowing the batter to make contact, less AB's for the opposing lineup which means that the best hitters hit less often, less stress on the rest of the defense, and so much more.
    But let's use your number of 32 more runs given up on defense, which is more than generous.

    Now let's address the offensive side. You talk about a Kepp/Fontenot platoon, but they both do well against lefties, so why platoon them? And does your Fontenot/Kepp platoon factor in that one will be batting against lefties and one against righties? If not, the numbers are meaningless. You just would have two guys to split time against lefties and no one to play against righties.

    You say that you don't know the league average for SS for RC/27. I don't know it either, but they are meaningless, since RC/27 only shows what a hitter's value is above replacement value, which is not the same as above league average. And since you are talking about how many runs more than league average that he gives up, you need to use that same measure on offense.
    So let's look at league average numbers for SS.
    According to this THT article, http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/pr...-average-does/

    the league average numbers for SS for 2007 are .270 .336 .422.

    In 660 AB's that translates to 93 runs created.

    Let's look at Fontenot's career stats. .290 .369 .457

    In 660 AB's that translates to 111 runs created. Or 18 more runs created than a league average SS.

    So if your very generous number of 32 runs given up more than a league average SS is true, than Fontenot barely makes up half the extra runs he gives over the extra runs he creates.


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