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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

Voters
100. You may not vote on this poll
  • Zach Cozart

    0 0%
  • Chris Dickerson

    26 26.00%
  • Danny Dorn

    16 16.00%
  • Carlos Fisher

    0 0%
  • Ryan Hanigan

    3 3.00%
  • Chris Heisey

    2 2.00%
  • Jeremy Horst

    0 0%
  • Sam Lecure

    0 0%
  • Matt Maloney

    1 1.00%
  • Devin Mesoraco

    17 17.00%
  • Ramon Ramirez

    5 5.00%
  • Yorman Rodriguez

    6 6.00%
  • Josh Roenicke

    6 6.00%
  • Adam Rosales

    2 2.00%
  • Zach Stewart

    11 11.00%
  • Justin Turner

    4 4.00%
  • Pedro Viola

    1 1.00%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

  1. #16
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    We've been over this many times... and I've corrected you on the "extreme flyball pitcher" thing at least twice. I guess you have toned it down to just "flyball pitcher", which is a start. Anyway that's not the point. Not liking Maloney's stuff would cause you to vote Maloney equally low both last year and this year.

    Virtually nothing about Maloney has changed from what he was last year. If you didn't like him last year you probably still don't. What I'm pointing out are the people who liked him last year but don't anymore - why is that happening?
    I recall you correcting him on that Shooter but I never understood your argument then. If more than 50% of his balls hit are in the air how can he not be a flyball pitcher? He's never had more than a 42% ground ball % since he left single A when it was 48% for 1 season? So if 42% of his balls hit are on the ground then that means the other 58% are in the air.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

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  3. #17
    Member Highlifeman21's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    With Duran gone (finally), I guess it's time for me to jump onboard the Danny Dorn train.

  4. #18
    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    The top four from last year's vote have graduated, the only ones back who were higher than Maloney last year are Frazier and Stubbs. So voting him 15-20 means you think around 15 other prospects jumped him this season. Certainly that is up to you, just pointing out that it's not just the fast risers passing Maloney. It's half the system.
    I didn't vote for Matt Maloney at #7 last year. IIRC I had him just outside the top ten.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  5. #19
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I recall you correcting him on that Shooter but I never understood your argument then. If more than 50% of his balls hit are in the air how can he not be a flyball pitcher? He's never had more than a 42% ground ball % since he left single A when it was 48% for 1 season? So if 42% of his balls hit are on the ground then that means the other 58% are in the air.
    50% is the wrong cutoff. If you use that, the vast majority of MLB pitchers would be "flyball pitchers". The average GB% is 43-44%. Matt Maloney, for his career, is at 42.1%. If you want to make it a 50/50 thing where every pitcher has to be categorized as a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher, you can categorize Maloney as a fly ball guy. I tend to look at it more like this:

    Below 39: Fly ball pitcher.
    39-47: Neutral.
    Above 47: Ground ball pitcher.

    These are a bit arbitary, but Maloney is safely inside of any kind of neutral category you want to make. He is almost exactly on the average for GB%. I mean, if he was at 45% instead of 42%, would we be calling him a ground ball pitcher? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

  6. #20
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    I think that's a fair point and I would file it into the "hype" category. I suppose we will see this year what the Reds FO does think of him, I'd imagine at some point they will have to either give him a shot or trade him. His value will keep dropping the longer they let him sit in AAA.
    Yeah I suppose you could file that into hype to some extent. But we are limited in what we know about a player and unless we have good reason to knock a guy we only have his production to go off of. You could technically call that hype or you could call it acquiring more information and therefore slotting him accordingly. It's a fluid artform, evaluating prospects.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  7. #21
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    A majority of the pitchers in baseball are flyball pitchers. That doesn't change the definition though. If you allow more grounders than fly balls, you are a groundball pitcher. If you allow more flyballs than grounders, you are a flyball pitcher. Maloney allows about 16% more flyballs than groundballs. He is a flyball pitcher.

  8. #22
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    A majority of the pitchers in baseball are flyball pitchers. That doesn't change the definition though. If you allow more grounders than fly balls, you are a groundball pitcher. If you allow more flyballs than grounders, you are a flyball pitcher.
    You're attempting to take a useful stat that compares a player to his peers and change it into something that tells you nothing. Congratulations.

  9. #23
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I didn't vote for Matt Maloney at #7 last year. IIRC I had him just outside the top ten.
    Gotcha, that makes sense. I was really talking about the board as a whole, not trying to single you out.

  10. #24
    BobC, get a legit F.O.! Mario-Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    50% is the wrong cutoff. If you use that, the vast majority of MLB pitchers would be "flyball pitchers". The average GB% is 43-44%. Matt Maloney, for his career, is at 42.1%. If you want to make it a 50/50 thing where every pitcher has to be categorized as a ground ball pitcher or a fly ball pitcher, you can categorize Maloney as a fly ball guy. I tend to look at it more like this:

    Below 39: Fly ball pitcher.
    39-47: Neutral.
    Above 47: Ground ball pitcher.

    These are a bit arbitary, but Maloney is safely inside of any kind of neutral category you want to make. He is almost exactly on the average for GB%. I mean, if he was at 45% instead of 42%, would we be calling him a ground ball pitcher? That doesn't make a lot of sense to me.
    I guess I can see that approach. But once he goes to the next level how far does that # drop? I've always heard that going from A to AA is the biggest jump except for going from AAA to the pros. If that's the case I'd say it's not out of the question that his 6% drop from A to AA could make him a candidate for a drop going from AAA to MLB. If he drops just half of what he did before he would be right in that flyball category you speak of.
    "You can't let praise or criticism get to you. It's a weakness to get caught up in either one."

    --Woody Hayes

  11. #25
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You're attempting to take a useful stat that compares a player to his peers and change it into something that tells you nothing. Congratulations.
    Looking at the top 50 pitchers by innings in the International League, Matt Maloney ranks 41st in non groundballs. He is a a flyball pitcher.

  12. #26
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mario-Rijo View Post
    I guess I can see that approach. But once he goes to the next level how far does that # drop? I've always heard that going from A to AA is the biggest jump except for going from AAA to the pros. If that's the case I'd say it's not out of the question that his 6% drop from A to AA could make him a candidate for a drop going from AAA to MLB. If he drops just half of what he did before he would be right in that flyball category you speak of.
    OK. After a google search, I am lifting the following from sonsofsamhorn. The data is from late in the 2006 season.

    PHP Code:
            League   Level     K/9     GB%     LD%     FB%
         
    northwest    A-SS     7.57   47.82   13.38   28.78
              nypl    A
    -SS     7.47   48.71   14.24   26.88
           midwest       A     7.44   47.18   12.61   30.11
     southatlantic       A     7.54   48.05   13.82   28.87
        california   A
    -Adv     7.62   45.65   12.72   32.21
          carolina   A
    -Adv     6.92   45.57   11.47   32.58
      floridastate   A
    -Adv     7.46   46.50   12.78   30.80
          southern      AA     7.57   45.69   15.52   28.31
             texas      AA     7.01   44.85   16.08   29.69
           eastern      AA     7.37   45.58   12.79   31.48
     international     AAA     6.94   45.11   16.94   27.60
      pacificcoast     AAA     7.02   44.58   16.25   29.30 
    I have actually looked for this data before and never found it, so thanks for asking. To generalize, it looks like GB rates drop roughly 1 point for every level you advance. And the International League numbers are about 1.5% higher than the major league average.

    I would caution against putting a lot of weight in minor fluctuations of GB% from year to year - even established major league pitchers see this happen.

  13. #27
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    I am really surprised at the rating of Dickerson. He has written a nice story of tenacity and effort, but he is what he is. He has been in the minors for 6 years for displaying the same weaknesses: he strikes out 33% of the time, he can't hit lefthanding pitching, and he can't maintain a short swing - when he goes on a HR streak, it gets long and he goes into a dismal slump. Each year this has happened. The only difference I can see is that he hit 6 HRs for the ML team in 100 ABs last year. I think he deserves a shot to make the Reds in spring training but if he wins a starting OF job - it means the Reds are giving up on the season instead of pursuing a legitimate CFer.

  14. #28
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Sometime in the next couple of years, Josh Roenicke will become a more polished, experienced, confident pitcher. He will then become a dominating late inning reliever for several years. He will be extremely hard to hit and will mow down the opposition.

    I'm not sure he will have a very long career because he is so dependent on a dominant fastball. But if he hits his stride when the Reds are coming together as a team, I can see Roenicke -- for a few years -- playing the role that Dibble played on the 1990 team.

    Guess who I voted for.

  15. #29
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    I have not given up on Maloney. I think the Reds had high expectations for Maloney this year, but he had a disastrous spring training. IIRC, he had two brutal starts. I recall that early on Dusty was complimentary concerning MM's fearlessness in pitching inside (unlike many other LHP.s). That can be problematic, though at the ML level if the pitch is not a plus pitch.

    After a poor start at AAA, his numbers improved fairly dramatically over the second half. His HR's per nine however, were still among the highest on the staff. Shearn was slightly higher and Macbeth was much higher. HR/9 can be expected to increase at the ML level. Add to that fly ball tendencies and he does not currently project well. I concluded that he might still be a good starter if, like many LHP's, he could develop a pitch that breaks down and away (screwball) or sharply down and in (slider) to RH batters. It seems unlikely that he could find the extra speed to make an inside fastball effective.

    I saw in another thread that MM planned to pitch winter ball. My guess is that he is working on this specific problem. I expect him to get at least one start in early March. We might know more then. Until then, I would be reluctant to rate him a top prospect.

    I didn't vote last year. I admit, however, that I would have rated him higher then. Sometimes higher levels do expose weaknesses that require a little more work to correct.

  16. #30
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #10 prospect?

    Dorn would be my choice (for the 2nd time here)


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