John Sickels on Drew Stubbs and Chris Valaika

[dougdirt]

Drew Stubbs, OF, Cincinnati Reds: He has clearly shortened up his swing since I saw him in college. I think this will help him overall, but I'm uncertain now about what his power development is going to look like. Will improved OBP and BA make up for any slippage in SLG?

Chris Valaika, SS, Cincinnati Reds: Impressive bat, swung at pitches outside the zone but still made hard contact on them and drove the ball. Did not get a good read on his defense, but the hitting looks good to me.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/

[RedsManRick]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

[dougdirt]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

I think Stubbs will hit for more power than Castillo ever has.

[*BaseClogger*]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

I would be ecstatic with .280/.370/.400 and gold glove defense in CF...

[RedsManRick]

I think Stubbs will hit for more power than Castillo ever has.

The guy is 24. At some point he's going to actually have to hit for power. I know you think he will, Doug, but that wasn't my question.

[dougdirt]

The guy is 24. At some point he's going to actually have to hit for power. I know you think he will, Doug, but that wasn't my question.

And he will be 24 all of next season too. I guess I would feel a little disappointed if he turned into a .370/.370 type of hitter like Castillo has been in the past. I see him hitting for more power than that though.

[SMcGavin]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

If his D is as good as it's supposed to be, a Castillo in his prime bat would make Stubbs a pretty useful player. I'd take it.

[Mario-Rijo]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

That's better than swinging and rarely making contact too me. But that ain't gonna happen Stubbs has way more raw strength than Luis Castillo. That's like comparing Ryan Freel with Matt Holliday.

[icehole3]

Gold glove defense and a ton of SBs, I'd take that.

[schmidty622]

I don't even care if he hits for power if he can be a good defensive CF and possibly a leadoff hitter.

[camisadelgolf]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

I don't think you were asking me, but I'll say that I think that that would be acceptable. The hits Stubbs would take away from opponents would be more than enough compensation for a so-so offense. However, regarding the power, Castillo hit one homerun over his 1,535 minor league at-bats, and Drew Stubbs (who has around 50 lbs. on Castillo) has 25 homeruns in 1,177 at-bats. I think it's almost ridiculous to compare Stubbs' and Castillo's power.

[mound_patrol]

If Stubbs ends up being the CF version of Luis Castillo, how does that sit with you?

I'm not concerned with Stubb's power. I'm concerned with how Stubbs has hit, or hasn't hit, while batting in the leadoff spot. In my opinion he isn't as valuable to this team if he has to bat in the 7th or 8th spot in the order.

[Kc61]

Stubbs will hit for power, eventually. Last season at AA and AAA it seems like he was concentrating more on making contact and getting some hits. I think it's a good way to progress. He has good power, at some point he'll use it more.

[RedsManRick]

Sean Casey was supposed to hit for good power too. A big frame isn't a guarantee of power. It's one thing to hit for power with a long swing and a metal bat that doesn't punish weak contact. Now that he's shortened his stroke to make sufficient contact, I'm not convinced the power will come back in any meaningful way. Maybe he uses pull power and hits 10-15 homers a year, but I don't see any more than that as anything close to a sure thing.

[dougdirt]

Sean Casey was supposed to hit for good power too. A big frame isn't a guarantee of power. It's one thing to hit for power with a long swing and a metal bat that doesn't punish weak contact. Now that he's shortened his stroke to make sufficient contact, I'm not convinced the power will come back in any meaningful way. Maybe he uses pull power and hits 10-15 homers a year, but I don't see any more than that as anything close to a sure thing.

Rick, I recalled this post you made about Chris Dickerson late in the season

Maybe we define power differently. I don't think he's suddenly going to put up a .200 ISO because of one HR. But I'm not sure what "gap power" means if it a 430' oppo homer doesn't contradict it. If you have a slugging percentage in mind, just say it, because it's clear he's got "power".

Now you note that with Dickerson its clear that he has power because of that 430 foot HR that wasn't quite in L/C as it went into the Reds pen, just off of dead center. Still, I will submit this video of Drew Stubbs hitting a 438 foot HR in Louisville late last year.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZYH5vWsvDk

Now yeah, it was just one little HR in AAA, but he is certainly capable of hitting those types of HR's with some more frequency as he gets more in tune with his new swing.