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Thread: Does LaRue Have Any Trade Value?

  1. #46
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    Gosh! After all this awesome research we are coming up with LaRue is looking like a pretty darn good Catcher. If you take into consideration his salary it might make him more valuable.
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

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  3. #47
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    The logic is not convoluted. Larue, as compared with other regular catchers, starting guys, catchers who play most of the time, catchers who have caught 100 or more games, is well below average offensively. He belongs with the group of catchers who are not regulars, who play part time, who share the position.

    Presumably this is clear. If he is to play 115 -120 games (as he will this year) he has to be a better catcher defensively and he needs to make contact much more.

    Either he needs to improve a lot or the Reds need to get a fundamentally sound catcher defensively who makes contact at bat. I expect them to try to upgrade the position in the offseason.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-16-2002 at 11:56 PM.

  4. #48
    post hype sleeper cincinnati chili's Avatar
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    There are 21 catchers in the major leagues who are -at least- in a platoon situation, if not in a starting situation, who have better rate stats than LaRue.

    LaRue has created 4.04 runs per 27 outs. True, that is about average for a catcher. But you have to remember that this "average" figure is artificially low due to the presence of several no-hit starting catchers who are excellent game callers and defensive catchers (e.g. Brad Ausmus, Mike Matheny).

    I could tolerate LaRue being a middle-of-the-pack hitter if he would bother to throw his lazy butt in front of a ball in the dirt every so often.

    For the record, here are all the major league catchers, who have created at least 20 runs in the catcher position, and have also created at least 4 runs per 27 outs:

    Rk----------NAME-------------------RC27------RC
    6 T. Pratt, Phi 10.15 24.8
    10 I. Rodriguez, Tex 7.09 65.4
    11 J. Posada, NYY 6.33 81.3
    12 M. Redmond, Fla 6.33 38.7
    13 M. Piazza, NYM 5.98 71.5
    16 M. Lieberthal, Phi 5.47 68.3
    17 M. Barrett, Mon 5.18 51
    18 A. Pierzynski, Min 5.09 56.1
    19 D. Wilson, Sea 4.92 45.9
    20 B. Schneider, Mon 4.89 25.9
    22 T. Hundley, ChC 4.68 32.6
    23 B. Davis, Sea 4.66 26.1
    27 T. Wilson, Tor 4.57 23
    29 D. Miller, Ari 4.55 37.9
    30 A. Hinch, KC 4.47 23
    32 R. Machado, Mil/ChC 4.46 24.6
    33 P. Lo Duca, LA 4.41 62.2
    34 J. Varitek, Bos 4.4 53.9
    35 J. Kendall, Pit 4.35 62.4
    37 B. Santiago, SF 4.32 55.6
    38 T. Lampkin, SD 4.11 31.7
    40 J. LaRue, Cin 4.04 40.7


    Here are some guys who failed to create 4 runs per 27 outs thus far

    42 S. Alomar Jr., CWS/Col 3.83 28.4
    46 J. Flaherty, TB 3.66 29.5
    50 C. Johnson, Fla 3.56 25.7
    53 M. Matheny, StL 3.4 29.1
    54 R. Hernandez, Oak 3.39 37.9
    55 P. Bako, Mil 3.39 21.1
    57 B. Ausmus, Hou 3.29 41.4
    59 G. Bennett, Col 3.24 25.4
    60 B. Mayne, KC 3.19 28.8
    61 G. Gil, Bal 3.1 36.3
    62 J. Lopez, Atl 3.07 29
    63 M. Johnson, CWS 3.06 22.7
    65 T. Hall, TB 2.94 25.4
    68 B. Inge, Det 2.79 25.3
    69 B. Molina, Ana 2.75 32.2
    74 K. Huckaby, Tor 2.47 17.4
    49 M. DiFelice, StL 3.59 16.6
    24 B. Estalella, Col 4.66 16.4
    43 V. Wilson, NYM 3.8 16.2
    58 W. Gonzalez, SD 3.27 16
    75 H. Blanco, Atl 2.43 16
    44 Y. Torrealba, SF 3.74 14.4
    71 B. Haselman, Tex 2.72 14.2
    48 T. Prince, Min 3.63 14
    67 G. Zaun, Hou 2.93 13
    41 C. Miller, Cin 3.84 12.8
    64 D. Mirabelli, Bos 3.01 11.6
    72 R. Barajas, Ari 2.55 10.7
    73 B. Fordyce, Bal 2.55 9.7
    56 J. Paul, CWS 3.33 9.5
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  5. #49
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    If you really want to determine the trade value of these guys, divide their RC numbers by their salaries.

    Mediocre numbers + low salary = trade value.

    That is why Larue has trade value, not because he is a great hitter or receiver. Laure is producing at about the same rate or outproducing guys like Jason Kendall, Charles Johnson, Sandy Alomar and Javy Lopez, while making only 3%-5% as much money as those guys.

    There are a number of teams who would LOVE to have Jason Larue because he is better AND cheaper than any of their other available options.

  6. #50
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    However he'll probably be arb eligible this yearwhich starts reducing his "cheapness"
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

  7. #51
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    That is true. That is also whyI suspect the Reds will look to move him.

    However, I don't think his salary will explode via arbitration because of the way the system is set up.

    The average raise in arbitration is about $900M, with first year eligibles getting less than that. I would suspect catchers only get about half of that due to their generally lower salaries/stats and the lack of great young catchers to compare to between the 2 & 3 year service level. I'd be surprised if Larue exceeds $700M in arbitration, and I expect something in the $600M range.

    Considering the new CBA boosted the minimum salary to $300M, $600M is still pretty darn cheap.

  8. #52
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    Originally posted by Steve4192
    That is true. That is also whyI suspect the Reds will look to move him.

    However, I don't think his salary will explode via arbitration because of the way the system is set up.

    The average raise in arbitration is about $900M, with first year eligibles getting less than that. I would suspect catchers only get about half of that due to their generally lower salaries/stats and the lack of great young catchers to compare to between the 2 & 3 year service level. I'd be surprised if Larue exceeds $700M in arbitration, and I expect something in the $600M range.

    Considering the new CBA boosted the minimum salary to $300M, $600M is still pretty darn cheap.
    This post is well thought out, and the cost-for-production argument is fair. However, I disagree about LaRue getting only $700K in arbitration.

    Two years ago, Scott Hatteberg was a first time eligible catcher for the Red Sox and the two sides split the difference at around $1 million. Hatteberg, while a better hitter than LaRue IMHO, was not a full-time player and didn't have "counting stats" that were quite as good (homers, caught runners %). I think LaRue will get in the 1.5 mil. range.

    I agree that I'd rather have LaRue for his present salary than Todd Hundley for gazillions. But I just think LaRue is a waste of the Reds time. He seems to lack either the ability or inclination to improve his plate discipline skills or his game as a backstop.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

  9. #53
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    Chili, I was taking a best guess in regards to Larue's arbitration reward. Since you actually did some research I'll defer to you on that point.

    If that is the market range for a 1st year eligible catcher, I can almost guarantee the Reds will trade him. Boone hates his approach behind the plate, the team already has a $1MM catcher in Stinnett, and there is a viable alternative already in the system in Miller.

    Been nice knowing you Jason.

  10. #54
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    Another HR by LaRue. Not that I think he is awesome or the future of the Reds, but it just seems that since he changed his stance he has put up some decent numbers. Anyone figure that out. How about how has he done the 2nd half of the season. Better then Dunn I bet.......
    And This One Belongs to the REDS!!!

  11. #55
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    You're right Reds1. As much as I've criticized LaRue, he's definitely been a much better hitter since the break.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...s?statsId=6252

    I'm skeptical this will continue. Once a hacker, always a hacker. But if I'm wrong, I'll certainly take a .500 slugging percentage from the catching position.
    ". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008


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