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Thread: Espn BA Chat

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    Espn BA Chat

    Three interesting Reds questions today:

    Ben (Centerville, OH): Which Reds prospect has been more impressive in the Hawaiian Winter League, Yonder Alonso and his .438 OBP or Todd Frazier with his .593 slg? Could both of them finish 2009 in Cincinnati?

    Jim Callis: (1:57 PM ET ) Can I take both? Not sure the Reds would promote either that soon for contract ramifications, but those are the two best prospects in the system and both can hit. Frazier won't be a SS in the majors but I could see him at 3B or in the OF.

    Ben (Centerville, OH): You rank Frazier over 3B Neftali Soto who obliterated MWL pitching at 19 years old for the Reds? Soto arguably had a better year in the MWL at the same age than even Jay Bruce did. Less than 17% K rate and a .170+ isolated power.

    Jim Callis: (2:00 PM ET ) Personally, I do. I think Soto is going to wind up being a 1B, so I think Frazier will give you a lot more positional value. He's more proven with the bat and may be just as productive as Soto.

    Ben (Centerville, OH): Scouts in Arizona are talkin glike Chris Valaika can stick at SS in the majors, does that raise his prospect status if he can play a decent SS with his advanced bat?

    Jim Callis: (2:38 PM ET ) Yes it does and I've heard the same thing. Scouts give him a better chance to stick at SS than they did when he signed, and he has hit throughout the minors.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Soto winding up at 1B? Is Callis the only one saying that or is that projection more prevalent than I think it is?

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Thats the first time I have heard anyone suggest Soto winds up at first base.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Jim Callis is about the only person I've seen who thinks Soto will wind up at first base. Everyone is in agreement that he's not a shortstop but most think he can play third base or left field.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Also Kevin Goldstein had his chat today, Reds Top 11 list tomorrow. He answered Reds questions as well.

    Chris (Virginia): "fall-down range".....stop it, your killing me....I can't be laughing that loud at work....man

    Kevin Goldstein: I've thought of compiling a bathroom-reading book of my favorite scout quotes. It would be awesome, but definitely not safe for work. Here's a nice exchange with a scout about Devin Mesoraco that I had for the Reds list:

    Scout: He was a first-round pick right? got a huge bonus?
    KG: Oh yeah.
    Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.

    Deywane (Memphis): Will the Reds list be out to tomorrow and will Yorman Rodriguez make it?

    Kevin Goldstein: Yes to the first, and yes to the second. In fact, the last thing I did before hitting the chat was to write up Yorman.

    Ryan (Cincinnati, OH): How little would Drew Stubbs need to hit for him to be a net positive?

    Kevin Goldstein: You'll see tommorow? I like Stubbs, but I'm a tools sucker.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Baseball Prospectus held a chat today also:

    Kevin Goldstein: I've thought of compiling a bathroom-reading book of my favorite scout quotes. It would be awesome, but definitely not safe for work. Here's a nice exchange with a scout about Devin Mesoraco that I had for the Reds list:

    Scout: He was a first-round pick right? got a huge bonus?
    KG: Oh yeah.
    Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.


    Deywane (Memphis): Will the Reds list be out to tomorrow and will Yorman Rodriguez make it?

    Kevin Goldstein: Yes to the first, and yes to the second. In fact, the last thing I did before hitting the chat was to write up Yorman.


    Ryan (Cincinnati, OH): How little would Drew Stubbs need to hit for him to be a net positive?

    Kevin Goldstein: You'll see tommorow? I like Stubbs, but I'm a tools sucker.

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ch...php?chatId=546
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    I'm looking forward to BP's Reds prospect list. If Yorman cracked the top 11 then I'm guessing Duran did too. Alonso, Frazier, Soto, and Stubbs are also locks. Goldstein is a big Soto fan judging by his past comments but he also like Stubbs tools. It'll be interesting to see how he ranks those four. He's also a big Lotzkar fan so I expect him and Thompson to be in the top 11 along with Valaika. I also expect Juan Francisco somewhere in the top eight or nine. I'm interested in seeing who the other prospect is.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I'm interested in seeing who the other prospect is.
    I'd wager it will be one of these four: Mesoraco, Dorn, Stewart, or Roenicke...
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by *BaseClogger* View Post
    I'd wager it will be one of these four: Mesoraco, Dorn, Stewart, or Roenicke...
    That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.
    If I remember he wasn't high on Dorn because of his tools, so yeah Roenicke is a good guess because he is more advanced than Stewart...

    edit: of course personally I would take all three over Roenicke.
    "On-base percentage is great if you can score runs and do something with that on-base percentage," Baker said. "Clogging up the bases isn't that great to me."

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    That what I was thinking. I don't think it will be Mesoraco though. I predict it will be Roenicke.
    You think Roenicke will rank higher than starters like Maloney or Ramirez?

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Don't count out Juan Carlos Sulberan, Goldstein list is mostly about upside.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    You think Roenicke will rank higher than starters like Maloney or Ramirez?
    I forgot about Ramon Ramirez. Someone (can't remember who) on BP really likes Ramirez but I'm not sure how Goldstein feels about him. I doubt if he cracks the top 11 since he just turned 26.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by OnBaseMachine View Post
    I forgot about Ramon Ramirez. Someone (can't remember who) on BP really likes Ramirez but I'm not sure how Goldstein feels about him. I doubt if he cracks the top 11 since he just turned 26.
    Roenicke is 26 as well. I know he was converted to pitching late but he is still 26 years old.

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    Re: Espn BA Chat

    Quote Originally Posted by BRM View Post
    Roenicke is 26 as well. I know he was converted to pitching late but he is still 26 years old.
    Have you seen his fastball?

    All this analysis of prospects sometimes misses the point that many of the candidates don't have the physical talent to be probable top players. There are some highly rated in the RedsZone list who are skilled players, someday may be reasonable major leaguers, but don't seem to have outstanding physical talent that would likely make them plus major leaguers.

    Roenicke needs polish, needs to use his secondary pitches better, etc., etc., etc.

    But he is a big reliever who can throw the ball through a brick wall and also has ground ball tendencies.

    Of course he should be on any list of the Reds top prospects. Even at 26 years old.


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