Reds top 11 prospects from Baseball Prospectus

[OnBaseMachine]

CINCINNATI REDS

Five-Star Prospects
1. Yonder Alonso, 1B
Four-Star Prospects
2. Todd Frazier, INF
3. Drew Stubbs, CF
Three-Star Prospects
4. Chris Valaika, SS
5. Neftali Soto, 3B
6. Yorman Rodriguez, CF
7. Juan Duran, OF
8. Juan Francisco, 3B
9. Kyle Lotzker, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
10. Daryl Thompson, RHP
11. Devin Mesoraco, C

Just Missed: Zach Cozart, SS; Josh Roenicke, RHP; Zach Stewart, RHP

Ranking Challenges: Yonder is a clear number one for me, and Frazier/Stubbs are just as obviously the second-tier prospects. It's always difficult to figure out what to do with toolsy 16-year-old Latin American Yorman Rodriguez and 17-year-old Juan Duran. You'd like to maybe leave them off the list and wait for more information, but $4.5 million for the pair says a lot on its own, as do the scouting reports. They were impossible not to include, as the system bottoms out pretty quickly.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8304

[New Fever]

In the interview Terry Reynolds said that Yorman Rodriguez and Juan Duran will both be in the GCL this year.

[New Fever]

Also, he said Juan Carlos Sulbaran will start at one of the A levels. Reynolds doesn't agree with BP about Mesaraco and said that he will be in Sarasota to start next year.

[BRM]

Kc was right. BP isn't nearly as high on Soto as RedsZone is. Also, if Lotzkar has TOR type talent, how is he only a 3 star prospect?

[New Fever]

Kc was right. BP isn't nearly as high on Soto as RedsZone is.

In the article, a scout does say this though: "the ball just comes off his bat differently."

[OnBaseMachine]

I like Stubbs and Valaika a lot, but there is no way they should rank ahead of Soto IMO. BP's scouting report on Soto is very encouraging, as they say he's got plenty of raw power to all parts of the field, his easy swing will allow him to hit for a high average, and he has good hands and a cannon for an arm at third base.

Goldstein says Stubbs develops into a Mike Cameron type player in his Perfect World projection.

Goldstein agrees with what Baseball America said a week or so ago, that Alonso projects as a .300/.400/.500 type of hitter.

The scouting report on Yorman Rodriguez was jaw dropping. Here's a little excerpt: Rodriguez is a human tool shed, with plus-plus raw power and game-changing speed. Throw in a plus-arm and you have a potential five-tool monster. He's a fluid athlete who projects as a plus center fielder. "Potentially, there's nothing he can't do," said one scout. They list Yorman as 6-foot-3 and 180 pounds.

Goldstein compares Juan Duran's body type to Daryl Strawberry. He says Duran has a good feel for the strikezone for such a young kid and a good swing that generates tremendous raw power. He also says Duran is a good athlete who runs well.

Scouts save about Juan Francisco's power. Says he has 35-40 homer power but he needs to work on plate discipline.

Lotzkar has the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Reds system. He says Lotzkar's arm is fully healed and he was 100% in instructional league.

Daryl Thompson projects as a solid back of rotation starter. He thinks Thompson could compete for a spot on the Reds roster in spring training.

Says Mesoraco was disappointing last season but the tools are still there and it's way too early to give up on him. The Reds still like him a lot and raved about his showing in instructional league.

He also says Jay Bruce has superstar written all over him and he expects a minimum of 30 homers from Bruce in 2009.

[OnBaseMachine]

Goldstein on Juan Carlos Sulbaran:

The Sleeper: A 30th-round draft pick in June, righty Juan-Carlos Sulbaran earned a $500,000 bonus to avoid going home to the Netherlands to pitch professionally there. He's got a projectable body, and three pitches that rate average or above, including a fastball that can get up to 94 mph.

[BRM]

Maybe I just don't understand the star system. How does the report on Yorman Rodriquez translate into 3 star prospect? That reads like a 5 star to me.

[OnBaseMachine]

Kc was right. BP isn't nearly as high on Soto as RedsZone is. Also, if Lotzkar has TOR type talent, how is he only a 3 star prospect?

I didn't know Goldstein was *that* tools oriented. Stubbs and Valaika are good prospects but what Soto did in 2008 was special for a 19 year old. There's no way they should rank ahead of Soto IMO. As for Lotzkar, he was only 18 years old this season and he didn't rack up very many innings which is why he's only a three star. If Soto had been a first round pick I'm guessing he would have ranked #1 or 2.

[BRM]

I didn't know Goldstein was *that* tools oriented. Stubbs and Valaika are good prospects but what Soto did in 2008 was special for a 19 year old. There's no way they should rank ahead of Soto IMO. As for Lotzkar, he was only 18 years old this season and he didn't rack up very many innings which is why he's only a three star. If Soto had been a first round pick I'm guessing he would have ranked #1 or 2.

So the stars are based on current performance more than potential?

[OnBaseMachine]

He also factors in playing time. Duran and Yorman have yet to even play pro ball and Lotzkar only threw around 37 innings this season. Even Soto only picked up 285 atbats this season.

[New Fever]

BP has a new feature that allows users to leave comments about the article. If you have any questions about the list Goldstein will answer your questions.

[BRM]

He also factors in playing time. Duran and Yorman have yet to even play pro ball and Lotzkar only threw around 37 innings this season. Even Soto only picked up 285 atbats this season.

That makes sense. Thanks OBM.

[redsfandan]

Ranking Challenges: Yonder is a clear number one for me, and Frazier/Stubbs are just as obviously the second-tier prospects. It's always difficult to figure out what to do with toolsy 16-year-old Latin American Yorman Rodriguez and 17-year-old Juan Duran. You'd like to maybe leave them off the list and wait for more information, but $4.5 million for the pair says a lot on its own, as do the scouting reports. They were impossible not to include, as the system bottoms out pretty quickly.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/ar...articleid=8304

now i know that the rankings don't include bruce, bailey, cueto, and votto now but it seems like we still have some decent depth. i didn't see a mention of ramirez, dickerson, etc. it seems like all we're missing is a few more middle infielder/tor prospects. also, when soto, yorman, etc have more time in we could have alot of 4 and 5 star prospects.

[OnBaseMachine]

I found the scouting report on Soto's defense at third to be very encouraging. Goldstein says he has good hands and a cannon for an arm at third base but he notes he needs to work on his footwork. That's OK. You can teach footwork. With his bat, all he needs to be is just an average defender and he'll be a star. I'm still surprised Stubbs and especially Valaika were ahead of him, I know they play premium positions but you can't ignore what Soto has did with the bat at such a young age. He's put up similar numbers to Jay Bruce at the same age.