Reds top 11 prospects from Baseball Prospectus

[RedsManRick]

I just can't agree with that. Walk rates don't come into play with a guy who doesn't strike out much and can hit .300+ with plenty of power, especially at a young age. If he isn't striking out then he isn't likely chasing ton, meaning he gets the zone, he is just hitting it when its thrown there. When guys start to nibble around him because of his power, he will adjust and not swing at the outside pitches.

I think the bolded part is incredibly important and occasionally dismissed. The prospect hitting .300 without walks who isn't striking out either is a VERY different animal than the one hitting .300 without walks who is striking out a lot.

Especially when there's power involved in driving that average, the strikeouts (or lack thereof) portend an ability to handle more advanced pitching. There's nothing wrong with getting your OBP through hits -- in fact it's preferable. But if you're doing that because you're beating up on bad pitching (while getting dominated by good pitching), you're in for some trouble when the bad pitchers stay behind in the low minors and you try to advance. How will that average hold up when you start facing guys who can command their breaking stuff? You need to either be able to hit that stuff or lay off of it and it's hard to see that ability in the low minors.

[OnBaseMachine]

It's very unlikely it ever happens, but it's fun to dream about a future outfield of Juan Duran, Yorman Rodriguez, and Jay Bruce. That would be one talented outfield. The odds of it ever happening are slim but a guy can dream can't he?

[dougdirt]

Spot on Rick. If Soto see's his K rate start rising and the walks are still low, then it becomes a problem. But if he turns into a modern day Andrew Dawson or Carlos Lee type of hitter, there isn't really a problem with that. Not everyone is going to draw a ton of walks (although Lee started out slow, he did have a few strong walk seasons in the middle as he aged and showed MLB power). The jury is still out, but if Soto keeps up his low walks, low K's and a lot of power, there isn't likely going to be a problem with it at all.

[Patrick Bateman]

Make no mistake, I don't care how he gets the OBP. If he was OBPing .370 with few walks, that would be great by me.

But he isn't. He actually might be some pretty minor tweaks away, but in Dayton, his K's weren't so low that it offset the lack of walks to create a high OBP.

[Will M]

back in the day Donruss would have ~40 cards of rookie players who were 'Rated Rookies'. For every Tom Glavine there were three Tom Smiths.
For every Curt Schilling there were two Curt Jones.
Not every stud prospect even makes the bigs let alone becomes an everyday player let alone an All Star. I tend not to get too excited about players below A+ pr pitchers below AA. The best thing about the current Reds system is the DEPTH we have.

[Will M]

I'd really like to see the Reds use Thompson out of the pen this year, if he doesn't win the 5th starter spot. I think he has the stuff to be effective in short outings and the injuries that he has suffered are leading him down the path to being a bullpen arm anyway.

I'd just like to see what he has to offer in the 6th and 7th, along with some long relief duties.

For me I am not sure what to do with Thompson in 2009. I don't know if I'd pitch him in the pen vs AAA if he doesn't win the 5th starter spot.
Owings or Ramirez is likely the 5th starter with the other in the pen. Both have had some big league success which Thompson has not. Maloney is trade bait due to his flyball tendencies. Bailey is a starter in AAA until he gets his you know what together.

[kpresidente]

For me I am not sure what to do with Thompson in 2009. I don't know if I'd pitch him in the pen vs AAA if he doesn't win the 5th starter spot.
Owings or Ramirez is likely the 5th starter with the other in the pen. Both have had some big league success which Thompson has not. Maloney is trade bait due to his flyball tendencies. Bailey is a starter in AAA until he gets his you know what together.

Thompson needs to be in AAA. He has some real potential, and it's best to let that develop in AAA. With Ramirez and Owings, I think it's what-you-see-is-what-you-get at this point.

[Will M]

Thompson needs to be in AAA. He has some real potential, and it's best to let that develop in AAA. With Ramirez and Owings, I think it's what-you-see-is-what-you-get at this point.

you are probably right. Bailey, Thompson & Lotzkar are the only starters I see in the system with the potential to be a TOR starter.

[11larkin11]

you are probably right. Bailey, Thompson & Lotzkar are the only starters I see in the system with the potential to be a TOR starter.

These two are a little less known, but I would include Hildenbrandt and JC Sulbaran too

[Scrap Irony]

Horst, too, IMO. Has the pure stuff.

[RedlegJake]

Everyone wants the TOR guys, of course, but there's a lot of value in having a crop of middle to end of rotation guys, especially now with middle rotation guys getting 10 million and up. Sulbaran, Buck, LeCure, Wood, Viola, Thompson ( I have him more as a middle guy), Maloney, Hildenbrandt, Ramirez, Owings - these are the guys who you need to find for spots 3 to 5 so you can deal a guy like Arroyo when he becomes expensive. The Reds are just entering the point where they can lay the back end of the rotation into the hands of emerging guys. And Harang, Volquez and Cueto should be under control long enough to bring possible replacements in Lotzkar, Thompson, maybe the Guillon kid, maybe Hildenbrandt or a matured Bailey for the TOR. Plus, not having to spend big dollars to keep expensive MOR guys means you can afford a FA for the top. The important thing in my opinion is to continue to draft and to acquire as add-ins via trades, young arms to keep taking over those spots as they "graduate". Same thing with middle relievers - having guys who aren't necessarily closer quality but can be solid middle relievers frees up the FO to spend money on a closer instead of crazy Stanton contracts. The pitching in the Reds system may not be real sexy but there's a lot of solid depth.

[Screwball]

These two are a little less known, but I would include Hildenbrandt and JC Sulbaran too

I wouldn't.

[camisadelgolf]

A depth of MoR guys is important. A lot of the better starting pitchers were once considered middle- or back-of-the-rotation guys (i.e. Aaron Harang), and in some cases, all it takes is a little extra command, another MPH or two on the fastball, or a small adjustment on a breaking pitch to bring them to the upper tier.

[Cooper]

Hasn't Thompson's injury record and build paved the way for him to pitch out of the pen? Appears to me you start him in the pen and allow his body to mature and then you see if he can start in the mlb.

[OnBaseMachine]

Horst, too, IMO. Has the pure stuff.

Horst projects as a back-end starter or as a reliever. His fastball tops out around 91 and he's got a great changeup. His breaking ball still needs work though. He's a solid prospect but he's not a TOR talent IMO.