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View Poll Results: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

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  • Alex Buchholz

    6 5.22%
  • Dallas Buck

    4 3.48%
  • Zach Cozart

    10 8.70%
  • Carlos Fisher

    5 4.35%
  • Ryan Hanigan

    4 3.48%
  • Chris Heisey

    5 4.35%
  • Evan Hildenbrandt

    5 4.35%
  • Jeremy Horst

    0 0%
  • Ben Jukich

    0 0%
  • Sam Lecure

    0 0%
  • Matt Maloney

    11 9.57%
  • Ramon Ramirez

    22 19.13%
  • Josh Roenicke

    27 23.48%
  • Adam Rosales

    3 2.61%
  • Juan Carlos Sulbaran

    7 6.09%
  • Justin Turner

    5 4.35%
  • Pedro Viola

    1 0.87%
  • Brandon Waring

    0 0%
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Thread: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

  1. #46
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Its not chance. You are trying to tell me its chance that really good pitchers give up fewer HR's than really bad ones? There is a range at which is generally acknowledge as average in the majors ~11% per FB. The problem is, in the minor leagues, the talent level isn't even close to being as close as it is in the majors. In the minor leagues there are some guys head and shoulders above others in talent and some guys way below other guys. In the majors there is lucky and unlucky to a point, but the guy that gives up a HR 14% per FB for his career, he hasn't been unlucky his whole career, he probably has been bad his whole career. The majors and minors are two entirely different animals. Using major league idea's as far as numbers go to suggest something about minor league numbers doesn't really work.
    Really good pitchers give up fewer HRs than really bad ones, both at the major and minor league level, because they allow fewer guys to put the ball in play. Not because they have a lower HR/F.

    You are saying HR/F data doesn't apply to the minor leagues. Which is ridiculous of course, the average is going to be lower than the 11% that it is in the majors, but there is some average which everyone will regress towards. Do the principles of BABIP not apply to the minors either? They aren't "major league ideas", they're principles of baseball. After reading your reasoning I find it hard to believe that you've ever thought about why HR/F wouldn't translate to the minors other than just now as you tried to refute my point.

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  3. #47
    The Boss dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Really good pitchers give up fewer HRs than really bad ones, both at the major and minor league level, because they allow fewer guys to put the ball in play. Not because they have a lower HR/F.

    You are saying HR/F data doesn't apply to the minor leagues. Which is ridiculous of course, the average is going to be lower than the 11% that it is in the majors, but there is some average which everyone will regress towards. Do the principles of BABIP not apply to the minors either? They aren't "major league ideas", they're principles of baseball. After reading your reasoning I find it hard to believe that you've ever thought about why HR/F wouldn't translate to the minors other than just now as you tried to refute my point.
    The principal of a .300 BABIP doesn't really apply as far as someone being lucky or unlucky in the minors. You have guys who can't field playing out of position, terrible fields and bad pitching. As for HR in the majors, its not the total number of HR's allowed, its more of a flyball/groundball issue. Maloney gives up lots and lots of fly balls. With low velocity and no plus pitch really, he isn't going to have normal HR numbers. You are right, strikeouts keep the ball out of play, but when the ball goes in play, some guys give up more HR than others for different reasons. Some guys just pitch up and aren't good and get beat around (Eric Milton), some guys play in bad parks that boost HR numbers (Cincy and Colorado jump to mind).... some guys just give up a ton of fly balls which leads to their 8-12% HR/FB to lead to a lot more HR than other guys. Maloney is that type of guy who works up in the zone too often and gives up a whole lot of fly balls. He even played in a park this year that surpressed HR's by 3% over the last 3 seasons. Maloney allowed a HR 7% of the time he allowed a fly ball. He wasn't unlucky at all, he just gave up a ton of fly balls and he projects to continue doing so in the future. He is just going to be a pitcher who gives up HR's.

  4. #48
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    The principal of a .300 BABIP doesn't really apply as far as someone being lucky or unlucky in the minors.
    Well, the average is different. .300 won't be the average. But the principle is the same. There is an average BABIP that everyone regresses to.

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt
    Maloney allowed a HR 7% of the time he allowed a fly ball.
    No, he didn't. It was 11%. You are probably getting the 7% from firstinning.com... that is HR/Air. A different stat, one that includes both fly balls and line drives.

    Using Maloney's other peripherals and the league average for HR/F, minorleaguesplits had his expected HR/F at 7.5%. With that rate he'd have given up 12 HR on the season instead of 18, and his FIP would have dropped to 3.36. Maloney was very unlucky in the HR/F category in 2008. It has no effect on what he's going to do going forward.

  5. #49
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    I can't start threads, but thought some might find this interesting. I had a conversation with a Reds minor league player recently. This particular player is one that I consider to be highly intelligent and a great student of the game. I asked him for his top six prospects in the organization. He based this on what he saw this season and in instructional league. I guess this goes to show how opinions can vary on these matters. His top six, in order were:

    1) Stubbs
    2) Valaika
    3) Soto
    4) Alonso
    5) Frazier
    6) Thompson

  6. #50
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Well, the average is different. .300 won't be the average. But the principle is the same. There is an average BABIP that everyone regresses to.
    Yeah, but I think that it will vary from year to year and league to league rather than just a 'minor league BABIP average'. I think we are on the same pitch.


    No, he didn't. It was 11%. You are probably getting the 7% from firstinning.com... that is HR/Air. A different stat, one that includes both fly balls and line drives.
    You are right that I got them from Firstinning.com, but line drives can be HR's as well.

    Using Maloney's other peripherals and the league average for HR/F, minorleaguesplits had his expected HR/F at 7.5%. With that rate he'd have given up 12 HR on the season instead of 18, and his FIP would have dropped to 3.36. Maloney was very unlucky in the HR/F category in 2008. It has no effect on what he's going to do going forward.
    That said, Minor League splits also has him pitching 2.1 more innings than he actually pitched. Still, if he is a league average pitcher in the 11% HR/FB, he will still give up a ton of HR's because he gives up a whole lot of fly balls. Still, I am not sure he keeps it around 11% given that only Volquez was under 13% among the Reds 4 main starters last year.

  7. #51
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    When you look at statistics in the minor leagues, you have to consider that there is human error built into the process. Official scorers vary wildly from park to park. A hit in one park is an error in the next park. Many scorers really favor the "prospects" on their team and if a decision on a ruling is a close call, there is often pressure from the home manager, particularly if it involves a prospect. Heck, even in the same park, many teams have alternating scorers and so depending on the night, you might get a pitcher friendly scorer or a hitter friendly scorer. You still hear legendary stories from Birmingham regarding Michael Jordan's season there in 1994, when there was no such thing as an error if Jordan was batting. I once heard a scorer change a call after a game after a phone call from the manager because "the manager wants to get his average up."

    I have seen many scorers playing card games on their laptops during the games and giving the game only half their attention. I once saw a team hire a scorer from a temp firm who knew nothing about baseball and tried to score straight out of the rule book. That scorer awarded a hitter an RBI on a strikeout because a run scored when the catcher attempted to pick off a runner on the third strike.

    How about this season, when the Fort Wayne scorer changed six runs allowed by Dayton reliever Jeff Jeffords from unearned to earned overnight based on a phone call from the manager? Think those six runs had an effect on the ERA of a reliever (with limited innings)?

    Minor league stats are helpful but you can't try to do too much with them.
    Last edited by redsof72; 11-16-2008 at 07:45 PM.

  8. #52
    Member SMcGavin's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Yeah, but I think that it will vary from year to year and league to league rather than just a 'minor league BABIP average'. I think we are on the same pitch.

    You are right that I got them from Firstinning.com, but line drives can be HR's as well.

    That said, Minor League splits also has him pitching 2.1 more innings than he actually pitched. Still, if he is a league average pitcher in the 11% HR/FB, he will still give up a ton of HR's because he gives up a whole lot of fly balls. Still, I am not sure he keeps it around 11% given that only Volquez was under 13% among the Reds 4 main starters last year.
    Yeah, I'm not saying there's any one set BABIP that will get normalized to. Agreed that it'll be different for each league and year.

    The only thing different in HR/F and HR/Air is the denominator. All the home runs that are given up are counted in either metric. If you want to use HR/Air, that should work just as well, but the average is going to be really low (like 5%). In either case, the point is that Maloney was very unlucky last year on his HR rate and that it has no bearing on what he does in the future.

    Maloney's career GB% is 42%, I don't see him suddenly giving up fly balls like Milton once he hits the bigs. I'm betting he'll be similar to Harang and Arroyo and hover around 40% ground balls. So yeah, he'll give up his share of HRs just like those two do. You point out that only Volquez was below 13% HR/F last year - well, the Reds staff last year was really unlucky. In 07 Harang, Arroyo, and Lohse were all under 11% HR/F. It is just chance.

    Back to Maloney - he won't have the K rates of Harang, but I see him being a very similar pitcher to Arroyo. Bronson has hung around 7.0 K/9 and just under 3.0 BB/9 during his Cincinnati career. You don't think Maloney can hit those targets? If he does, that's a durable middle of the rotation starter, which is a very valuable guy to have around.

  9. #53
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    Yeah, I'm not saying there's any one set BABIP that will get normalized to. Agreed that it'll be different for each league and year.

    The only thing different in HR/F and HR/Air is the denominator. All the home runs that are given up are counted in either metric. If you want to use HR/Air, that should work just as well, but the average is going to be really low (like 5%). In either case, the point is that Maloney was very unlucky last year on his HR rate and that it has no bearing on what he does in the future.

    Maloney's career GB% is 42%, I don't see him suddenly giving up fly balls like Milton once he hits the bigs. I'm betting he'll be similar to Harang and Arroyo and hover around 40% ground balls. So yeah, he'll give up his share of HRs just like those two do. You point out that only Volquez was below 13% HR/F last year - well, the Reds staff last year was really unlucky. In 07 Harang, Arroyo, and Lohse were all under 11% HR/F. It is just chance.

    Back to Maloney - he won't have the K rates of Harang, but I see him being a very similar pitcher to Arroyo. Bronson has hung around 7.0 K/9 and just under 3.0 BB/9 during his Cincinnati career. You don't think Maloney can hit those targets? If he does, that's a durable middle of the rotation starter, which is a very valuable guy to have around.
    I think Maloney is more Arroyo than Harang like you said, but I don't think he has the 'pitchability' that Arroyo does. Arroyo changes arm angles like its normal or something, which gives him an advantage over other throwers like him without above average stuff, because he can switch it up quite a bit. As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.

  10. #54
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    With his numbers I see Maloney's problem not being the home runs he gives up - to me his succeess, or failure will be whether he keeps guys off base enough to keep the home runs "livable". Given his stuff, and the fact he still fools a good number of AAA hitters I think he might be the kind of pitcher who is pretty successful at first but once he's seen a couple times he'll have trouble with his off speed stuff continuing to baffle big leaguers. Spot control and mixing speeds constantly will have to be his forte - he seems pretty good at mixing things up, so I just wonder if he'll have enough control to nail corners with the breaking stuff consistently to keep his "hittability" down. I think that'll be the difference between being a career training pitcher at AAA for opposing hitters coming up, or a successful major league starter.

  11. #55
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    I think Maloney is more Arroyo than Harang like you said, but I don't think he has the 'pitchability' that Arroyo does. Arroyo changes arm angles like its normal or something, which gives him an advantage over other throwers like him without above average stuff, because he can switch it up quite a bit. As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.
    Another thing Arroyo should be noted for is his stubbornness. How many times have you witnessed Arroyo use his curve-ball in a hitters count, even when it is a tight situation for him and he needs to throw a strike? To me the unpredictability of Arroyo is an asset he can use because of his confidence in his off-speed stuff. Will Maloney be able to do that consistently?

  12. #56
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Nearly 100 votes, and it's almost a tie between Roenicke and Ramirez. I think this one is headed toward a runoff.

  13. #57
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    As for the K/BB numbers for Maloney, I can see Arroyo like K numbers in the 6.5-7 per 9 range, but I think Maloney will walk more like 3-3.5 per 9.
    You do realize that if Maloney puts up the numbers you just said, he'll have a decent career as a MLB starting pitcher right? Those numbers would essentially make him Vicente Padilla (career 6.23 K/9, 3.21 BB/9). Not an All Star but a durable guy who's been a decent pitcher for many years.

    As for an individual season, a near exact match to what you project is Casey Fossum 2005. He had a 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 39.5% GB%. It was good for a 4.76 xFIP. Basically a #4 starter. Again, nothing glamourous, but you think the Reds would have taken a guy like that over the past decade?

    If that's the kind of career you expect from Maloney, I can see why he's not in your top five prospects. But you've got him at #29. You really think there are 28 prospects in the Reds system who are going to end up better than a #4 starter? Either you were mistaken about where you originally ranked Maloney, you were mistaken about the projection you just gave for him, or the Reds farm system is so stacked that we are going to win the World Series every year starting in about 2011.

  14. #58
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    The cut off for a run off is five votes, currently Roenicke has a four vote lead with just under an hour of voting left. If this lead holds then I'll probably run a one day run off between Ramon Ramirez and Josh Roenicke.
    I miss Adam Dunn.

  15. #59
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by SMcGavin View Post
    You do realize that if Maloney puts up the numbers you just said, he'll have a decent career as a MLB starting pitcher right? Those numbers would essentially make him Vicente Padilla (career 6.23 K/9, 3.21 BB/9). Not an All Star but a durable guy who's been a decent pitcher for many years.

    As for an individual season, a near exact match to what you project is Casey Fossum 2005. He had a 6.8 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 39.5% GB%. It was good for a 4.76 xFIP. Basically a #4 starter. Again, nothing glamourous, but you think the Reds would have taken a guy like that over the past decade?

    If that's the kind of career you expect from Maloney, I can see why he's not in your top five prospects. But you've got him at #29. You really think there are 28 prospects in the Reds system who are going to end up better than a #4 starter? Either you were mistaken about where you originally ranked Maloney, you were mistaken about the projection you just gave for him, or the Reds farm system is so stacked that we are going to win the World Series every year starting in about 2011.
    Fossum gave up fewer HR than I think Maloney will too. I also see Maloney taking time to adjust to the majors. The numbers I quoted him as having, won't be the day he steps onto the MLB field. He probably gets roughed up at first.

  16. #60
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    Re: Who is Redszone's #15 prospect?

    This poll is now closed. Josh Roenicke picked up a vote near the end to win by the necessary five votes. The next poll will be open within a few minutes.
    I miss Adam Dunn.


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