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Thread: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

  1. #1
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Simple question...what are the odds that the Reds will be in contention for a playoff berth at the trading deadline next year. The answer to that question will help guide the aggressiveness of the Reds' in Free Agency/Trades this offseason.

    When answering, be intellectually honest. Don't spout out "zero" or "one-hundred percent".

    I'd put the Reds chances of being competitive at 25 percent. I'd also put the Reds chances of being last in the Central at 25 percent...the season is really going to hinge on the progression of the youngsters.

    Of course moves in the off-season will change the odds...but right now, if it was your paycheck riding on the odds of how correct your guess was...what do you think.

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    GR8NESS WMR's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    15-20%.

    Less if Dusty gets his hands on Pierre, Taveras etc.

    Or if the Reds were to acquire Jermaine Dye and move Bruce to LF or some such similar idiocy.

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    Pitching is the thing WVRedsFan's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    As the club stands now without changes, slim to none. Add a right handed power bat and make the right moves in the bullpen (deep-6 Majewski and sign some new blood), a fair hitting and good fielding catcher, and shortstop, and you move that up to better than even. If everyone stays healthy.
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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Simple question...what are the odds that the Reds will be in contention for a playoff berth at the trading deadline next year. The answer to that question will help guide the aggressiveness of the Reds' in Free Agency/Trades this offseason.
    I think you've got it backwards.

    The aggressiveness of the Reds' in Free Agency/Trades this offseason will guide the odds that the Reds are in contention for a playoff berth at the trading deadline.

    If they stand pat, the chances of being in contention in late July are in the 35% range. But that's likely the low end of contention -- i.e. .500. Make that the chances of being in contention at the end of the season and the % drops precipitously.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Member OnBaseMachine's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    If they stand pat, there's probably a 5% chance of contending. If Jocketty can add, say, an Adrian Beltre (with Edwin moving to LF) or a Dye, another bullpen arm (Ohman? Beimel?), and a shortstop and maybe another catcher to pair with Hanigan then I would put the Reds chances at around 35-40%. Just getting rid of Bako/Patterson and replacing them with Hanigan and Dickerson improves the team as does replacing Keppinger's .657 OPS and poor defense at SS. Slight improvements from Bruce and Cueto improve the team. A healthy Harang improves the pitching. With the right moves, this team will be ready to make some noise IMO.
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    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    I think you've got it backwards.

    The aggressiveness of the Reds' in Free Agency/Trades this offseason will guide the odds that the Reds are in contention for a playoff berth at the trading deadline.

    If they stand pat, the chances of being in contention in late July are in the 35% range. But that's likely the low end of contention -- i.e. .500. Make that the chances of being in contention at the end of the season and the % drops precipitously.
    I don't know why you don't like my question. Of course, I and everyone else know that it is the moves that will be made will ultimately set the odds of sucess for next year. But before making those moves, at some point the Reds must be evaluated to their true chances of playoff contention.

    That is, the moves that will be made will all have 1) The 2009 season in mind and 2) The long-term picture in mind. Based on the Reds current roster, they must decide whether most of the focus is on 2009 or on the bigger picture. It's a gray area of course, and there is no correct answer...but the evaluation must be made before the hot-stove season begins...how close are the Reds to contention?

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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    I'll put it at 1%. You have to realize that the Reds won 74 games last year, and the Mets failed to make the playoffs with 89 wins. It will be very difficult for the Reds to advance 15 games in the win column in 1 year. It will take 90+ wins to make the playoffs, and it might be a couple of years before the Reds are in a position to do that.

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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    You need to have a couple of players to have career years. You need a couple of players to have breakout seasons. Then you need to be lucky not to have the injury bug cripple your team during the season. These are things you can't actually forecast.
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Quote Originally Posted by AmarilloRed View Post
    I'll put it at 1%. You have to realize that the Reds won 74 games last year, and the Mets failed to make the playoffs with 89 wins. It will be very difficult for the Reds to advance 15 games in the win column in 1 year. It will take 90+ wins to make the playoffs, and it might be a couple of years before the Reds are in a position to do that.
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    Next Year redsbuckeye's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    As it stands right now I would say 5%. If the Reds end up making some smart moves that may bump up to 25%. Given that it'll take probably 90 wins to make the playoffs (unless you're in the west) I don't see this team competing for the season without some large changes.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I don't know why you don't like my question. Of course, I and everyone else know that it is the moves that will be made will ultimately set the odds of sucess for next year. But before making those moves, at some point the Reds must be evaluated to their true chances of playoff contention.

    That is, the moves that will be made will all have 1) The 2009 season in mind and 2) The long-term picture in mind. Based on the Reds current roster, they must decide whether most of the focus is on 2009 or on the bigger picture. It's a gray area of course, and there is no correct answer...but the evaluation must be made before the hot-stove season begins...how close are the Reds to contention?
    I don't like it for the simple reason that there is a lot of gray area between 2009 and the "long-term picture". I don't think that we should push all in and do everything in our power to make the playoffs in 2009. But I think we'd be foolish to simply call it a rebuilding year and set ourselves up for another sub-.500 season.

    The way the talent on this team is organized, I'd want to be able to take advantage of the possibility that a number of young guys take a significant step forward. If you wait until July to supplement that, it's probably too late. Instead, I'd like to see us add a few pieces now without doing much harm to our future, push us over the expected .500 mark, and position us for a run should things break our way.

    It's a fine line, I admit. But it's an option, one your for which you question really doesn't allow. Our best playoff chances are probably beyond 2009. But I would hate for us to be so forward looking that we fail to capitalize on a potential opportunity in front of our noses.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  13. #12
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    IMHO I think as it stands right now we have a 5% chance to make the playoffs, with our current team, now if we can acquire some guys through trades and FA than I think our chances improve greatly, but the NL is loaded with talent(Mets,Cards,Brewers,Cubs,Dodgers,Phillies,Ma rlins) we have to do better than them in the offseason and frankly I don't see it, now moves that could help are:

    Bullpen:
    1)Will Ohman-as our lefty
    2)Juan Cruz-as fireballin 7-8th guy

    LF
    1)Juan Rivera-becomes RH bat we need in the 5th spot of the order

    5th Starter
    -Owings or Ramirez has to stabilize this spot ie 10-12 wins sub 5 era!

    C
    1)I think I would inquire about Brian Schneider from the Mets to platoon with Hanigan.

    Bench
    1)we need to acquire a guy with some pop preferably a RH 1b/of type of player(Mench)

    even with these moves I give us only a 15% chance due to our offense, but I like our pitching!!!!

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Standing pat our playoff chances are slim to none. That said I still think this team right now as it stands will win more games than its 2008 counterpart. Lack of depth, the deep hole at SS and a weak offense would keep it from reaching .500 but I think it would still win 5-6 more games. There is simply no way this team stands pat, though. We may not like the moves, or think enough moves were made but moves are coming. If the moves are band-aids that basically shore up a few things but push more kids into play it will be a growing year but I want them to go for a playoff spot. They could get there without wrecking the future with a couple solid moves and a bit of luck health-wise.

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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    Contention for a playoff birth at the trade deadline? Hmm, I don't know how to put a percentage on that. So I'll just say that if you take a realistic look at what we currently have and be realistic in how they will be used I think we cannot possibly expect to be in contention perse. I think our offense is still short at the top of the lineup more specifically #1 & #2 slots. Our Pen and Bench are not near complete and our defense hasn't yet improved enough. Couple that with Dusty's inability to put together a good lineup and potentially overuse our Rotation and it's a recipe for potential disaster.
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    Re: Chance of Reds in a playoff race in '09?

    5% with or without Dye or some other addition. The pitching is not yet good enough or, to put it more accurately, experienced enough. We have two innings eaters, one who is coming off injury at best, and two very promising young pitchers, one who is likely to regress a bit. Our 5th starter is unknown and, at best, will be very inexperienced. We have two reliable bullpen guys, Cordero and Burton, and one of them was injured a good bit of last year. Our third best bullpen pitcher at the moment had way too high a WHIP last year and is still, IMHO, far from established. We have the worst defensive 3b in the game, we do not know who will play CF, C, or SS, or probably LF. Too many problems to fill at one time. We'll make progress during the year and by July we could be starting to show what a real contender will look like in 2010 with the arrival of one and possibly two more big bats--Alonso and Frazier.


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